I presume by design, but Mr Draghi has created an enormous expectation for Thursady’s ECB meeting and conference. The huge question is can he deliver. He will need to produce something concrete and large. Bond buying is a minimum. This is not a done deal, the Bundesbank are still opposed Continue Reading →

Well Mr Draghi, Merkel, Hollande and Monti, all have stated they will do whatever it takes to save the Euro. This week we need to see the action to back that up. Namely bond buying on a large scale. This will not be the first time the ECB has bought Continue Reading →

Peter is on holidays this week but will be back next Monday.

Spain held an auction yesterday and the results have highlighted the problems that exist in the Eurozone which are not fixed. Spain cannot go forward funding at thses rates. So although the market is fairly quiet the crisis will return with a vengeance soon. We might get through the summer Continue Reading →

As we said summer markets. Euro is totally sidelined and now stuck in a 1.2225/1.2325 range. The S&P however is doing it’s usual trick of bouncing on even the slightest positive news. We have entered the 1370/1375 area. A break here leads to 1400 and maybe 1420 the high so Continue Reading →

Fed Chairman Bernanke keeps us guessing on the QE situation. It is available if the market fails to grow! The market will remain confused.

We are in a real summer range with these markets. It’s holiday time and little is happening. As usual the S&P is biased to the upside Continue Reading →

Market is awaiting Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke tonight. All the expectation is for QE3. Will we get it? Well yesterdays Retail Sales figures were bad adding to expectations. When the market is like this we have to wait and see the outcome rather than speculate. An announcement of QE will Continue Reading →

We had a short vicious rally late on Friday. Mainly due to better than expected results from JP Morgan. In reality it was a classic bear squeeze in thin markets. Is this the start of a bigger correction ? Hard to say, but today’s trading will be key. I would Continue Reading →

Amazingly now, downgrades are par for the course and the market virtually ignores them. However Italy has a bond auction today, could be a bit tricky. We are not going anywhere substantial in these markets so any outcome will be muted. The market is in a slow down trend, the Continue Reading →

That is the best way to describe the austerity / low growth scenario, which now prevails across Europe. From time to time things look slightly better but overall we are heading towards chaos. Euro still sliding towards 1.1880 and stock markets falling on lower growth forecasts and bank scandals.

How Continue Reading →

Well we started yesterday with some hope and a nice rally. I thought it may last a few days but I was wrong. Straight back to the bear market with a vengeance. Basically doubts about the ESM and major concerns about growth prospects globally have dented hope of a summer Continue Reading →

Well looks like we got a deal from Brussels last night. How big we don’t know but a deal nonetheless. Together with a plan to bail out Spanish banks direct from the EFSF initially and then the ESM, without involving the Sovereign, is pretty good news all round.

Why the Continue Reading →

It is going to be hard for the market to shake off Friday’s Payroll data. Look for levels to sell if you are not still short.

Euro hit a 1.2250 low.  1.2310 should contain the top side, our downside target is 1.1880 the June 2010 low.

On the S&P I Continue Reading →

Going to be quiet this morning ahead of the payrolls figure. This is how I see it playing out. Last month was 70k and we are expecting 100k this time.

Between 90 and 110k there is no trade, head to the pub.

110 to 125 is midly bullish, you will Continue Reading →

Today is about Europe and the ECB lending and deposit rates. A 1/4% cut in the lending rate is expected and priced in. What might happen is a cut in the deposit rate. This is the rate that the ECB pays to banks that deposit excess monies with it overnight. Continue Reading →

Should be fairly quiet. We have settled down into small ranges since the EZ summit. Bit of a rally on stocks yesterday S&P hitting 1370.     Dollar showing some signs of strenght which is stopping any euro rally. 1.2625  is now the top and 1.2570 support.

Should be range bound today also, Continue Reading →

The market ran out of steam yesterday at 1363 on the S&P and 1.2670 on the Euro. These are now good sell levels. 1.2620 on the Euro failed to hold also and we reached the 1.2570 level. Bad news from the US knocked the shine off the S&P. We are Continue Reading →

Well we finally got some serious action from a Euro summit. Clearly Spain and Italy ganged up on Merkel and bullied her into a concession. Using the ESM to directly bailout Spanish banks is a change in policy. Will it lead to a deal for Ireland, who knows? Where does Continue Reading →