IIFT Daily Note with Peter Brown

Archive for January, 2015


David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 1:02 pm  |  Topic:
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The Great Divide

AtlanticSummary

Thoughts from Germany/Deflation
Greece: In the hot seat!
Russia: In more trouble
United States: Fed frames the future
United States: Weekly Jobs claims drop
Eurozone: Pickup in lending growth

Good morning from the spick and span, Koln/Bonn airport.

I love Continue Reading →

Gold hammered, stocks rally.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:30 am  |  Topic:  |  Comments: 1
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 Commentary:

Volatility remains high on indices as we experienced a 300 point rally in the afternoon on the DOW. Market is not going anywhere in a hurry and in fact we have been in a wide range since November. Looks crazy with the dialy moves but in reality nothing is Continue Reading →

David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 2:41 pm  |  Topic:
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The task at hand

draghi_yellenSummary

  • Deflation at the heart of Europe
  • United States: Fed stay the course
  • Eurozone: Where next for the Euro?
  • United States: S&P taking the blame

Good morning,

While there was a lot of hype surrounding the ECB QE Continue Reading →

FOMC minutes – Reaction greater than the news.

Posted by:  |  Time: 11:57 am  |  Topic:  |  Comments: 6
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 Commentary:

U.S. stocks ended Wednesday’s choppy trading session sharply lower after the Federal Reserve’s policy-making committee reiterated it plans to remain patient and watch the data as it decides when to raise interest rates.

Sharp losses added to declines from Tuesday, when markets sold off after disappointing earnings and economic Continue Reading →

FOMC minutes – reaction greater than the news

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:47 am  |  Topic:  |  Comments: 1
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Commentary:

U.S. stocks ended Wednesday’s choppy trading session sharply lower after the Federal Reserve’s policy-making committee reiterated it plans to remain patient and watch the data as it decides when to raise interest rates.

Sharp losses added to declines from Tuesday, when markets sold off after disappointing earnings and economic Continue Reading →

David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 1:48 pm  |  Topic:
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Watching the US

us-flag-backlitSummary

  • All eyes on the Fed
  • United States: The good and bad effects of lower oil
  • United Kingdom: GDP slowed more than expected
  • Eurozone: Spanish mortgage lending pushes higher in November

‘Good morning,

On May 22 2013, Ben Bernanke rocked Continue Reading →

FOMC the big event today.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:47 am  |  Topic:  |  Comments: 9
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 Commentary:

Greece, snow storms, earnings releases and poor durable goods orders all combined to have a down day in stocks. For swing traders this is hard because the volatility is so high. We had a day yesterday news wise which we would expect a 200 point top to bottom on Continue Reading →

David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 1:52 pm  |  Topic:
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What happened to inflation?

inflation

Summary

Looking to the Fed’s FOMC
Greece: Upper hand now.
Eurozone: Greece gets a new government
Eurozone: German Business Confident
But Russia still locked out

Good morning,

This morning let’s look out across to the Atlantic and the Continue Reading →

Market is settling down.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:38 am  |  Topic:  |  Comments: 6
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 Commentary:

A bit of a foot on the ball day for FX yesterday despite the indices continuing their power rally. DAX is heading towards 11,000 and a 10% QE rally. Gold had a big profit take and an opportunity to get in or buy more depending on your strategy.

We Continue Reading →

David’s Daily Note: Chill, it’s only capitalism at play in Athens!

Posted by:  |  Time: 2:29 pm  |  Topic:
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Chill, it’s only capitalism at play in Athens!

ZOE_0112

Summary

New Greek government
Bankruptcy and default are normal
Eurozone: A year of unconventional politics
United States: Better housing data
Eurozone: PMI data weaker but stronger!
United Kingdom: Retail Sales booming

 

Good morning, Continue Reading →

Greece is the word.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:41 am  |  Topic:  |  Comments: 2
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 Commentary:

Firstly a big thank you to the 200 plus that turned up on Saturday at our Investor and Trader Summit. We really enjoyed the day and the great feedback.

The big story this morning is the Greek election and the victory for Syriza the anti- austerity party. Their next Continue Reading →

David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 12:48 pm  |  Topic:
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What’s bigger, oil or QE?

mecca-clock-towerSummary

Saudi bigger news than QE
QE: Very bullish for dodgy EZ bonds
United States: Initial Jobless Claims decline
China: Bears still in the woods!

Good morning,

While the world is looking at QE in Europe, one Continue Reading →

QE and loads of it!

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:34 am  |  Topic:  |  Comments: 3
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 Commentary:

We got more than we expected in the 60bln yesterday. The market took it very well and Euro fell and the DAX rose. The macro for the next while is now clear however questions remain when we come to the actual take up of the QE offered in March. Continue Reading →

David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 2:03 pm  |  Topic:
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The flirting is over!

Napolean-DynamiteSummary

Thanks be to Jaysus
Markets flying
Eurozone: “D” day for the ECB
United States: Better housing data
United Kingdom: Dovish BoE but how long can it last?

Good morning,

When I was a teenager, the most excruciating Continue Reading →

QE details leaked, is that it?

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:42 am  |  Topic:  |  Comments: 16
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 Commentary:

Well yesterday’s leak took all the steam out of today. We know 50billion a month up to over 1 trillion and until end 2016. US QE was 85billion dollars circa 74 billion Euro, so not as much as the US but a big number all the same. There are Continue Reading →

David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 2:41 pm  |  Topic:
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French Taxis!

taxi-paris_2694943bSummary

French taxis shed light of the Republic
Euro still under pressure
ECB: Bigger QE now likely
Eurozone: German industry sprightly
United States: Yanks still buying houses

 

Good morning,

I am just in from Paris where, as always, the nature of Continue Reading →

How high can gold go?

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:40 am  |  Topic:  |  Comments: 6
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 Commentary:

Big big winner in these markets is gold. The Swiss move coupled with the outlook for bonds and equities which are mixed at best, has just set the metal on an upward path. 1390?

We know we are waiting for the main event tomorrow, however yesterday was a more Continue Reading →

David’s Daily Note – How low can it go?

Posted by:  |  Time: 12:36 pm  |  Topic:
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How low can it go?

jx2305Summary

Crude trying to form a bottom
United States: More Strong Data
China: GDP data better than expected
The Week Ahead: All about the ECB

Good morning,

In 2008, the sharp decline in world economic Continue Reading →

A few days of quiet before the storm?

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:37 am  |  Topic:  |  Comments: 5
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 Commentary:

We had a quiet day yesterday as the US was on holidays. Euro put in a silly bounce which was reversed this morning. Stocks look well supported and there have been no new falls in the oil price.

Looks like we are setting up for Thursday and maybe we Continue Reading →

All about Thursday.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:43 am  |  Topic:  |  Comments: 3
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 Commentary:

What a week we have just experienced. This one is going to be quiet hectic also but not as crazy. We know that QE is coming on Thursday the only question now is how much. I expect the Euro to slow and stabilise into the meeting, we may fall Continue Reading →