31
MAR
Summary:
The many consequences of USD strength
United States: Poor data to start the week
Eurozone: Euro weakness brings inflation
China: Further easing measures announced
Good morning from a bustling Dublin Airport.
The number of American tourists tells Continue Reading →
31
MAR
Commentary:
As we approach the quarter end it is interesting to see that the macro view has come to pass strongly. Despite the fact we had some volatile periods, basically, Euro stocks are up strongly, US stocks are sideways to up and the dollar is higher across the board. Regardless Continue Reading →
Summary:
Markets: US equities looking very expensive
Greece going bust, again?
United States: Peak GDP?
The Week Ahead: US employment report key to the short term outlook on rates
Good morning,
Commentary:
A strong finish to Friday especially on the indices. We are ranging up and down frankly without any direction last week. This trend is likely to continue for a while. The big stories are Yemen and Greece. Both are in the background but having little effect. I do not Continue Reading →
27
MAR
Summary:
Deflation everywhere, more Japanese QE on the way
S&P 500 drops without a move higher in rates
United States: Employment growing still
United Kingdom: Conservatives smiling
Eurozone: Bank lending picks up
Good morning,
It’s Friday and people Continue Reading →
27
MAR
Commentary:
We have a lot of volatility and negativity in these markets. A slower US economy, Greece and Yemen dominate. In reality I think we are just in a profit taking phase. If we look back at the stunning stock market rally from 2009 it is dotted with these 5/7% Continue Reading →
26
MAR
Summary:
Tell them what you are going to do!
The Roy Keane model of forward guidance
Stocks sell off on US rate and Yeman
United States: Durable Goods orders slow
Eurozone: German Confidence accelerates
Good morning,
26
MAR
Commentary:
I was seriously considering moving my macro call to ranging, especially for the US indices and FX. Yesterday has blown that theory out of the water. The durable goods data was the key but frankly the US market went into meltdown. Worries over a slowdown and are stocks over-valued. Continue Reading →
Summary:
Recovery in Europe? Just asking!
Greeks are running out of cash and fast…again
Eurozone: Business Confidence strengthens in March
United States: Core inflation going nowhere
Good morning,
For those of us who fly a lot, there’s Continue Reading →
Commentary:
Has the dollar correction finished? Certainly the data yesterday suggested there may be a chance of an interest rate rise at some time. We are going to play this game all year I fear. However we know the macro view of the dollar is up and it is possible Continue Reading →
24
MAR
Summary:
French local elections
United States: Yanks still buying houses
China: Bad News is Good News!
Good morning,
One of the biggest issues in Europe is that so-called populist parties will benefit enormously as a consequence of Continue Reading →
24
MAR
Well I got yesterday’s call on the DAX wrong, so apologies for that. The Greek situation had a much greater affect than I thought it would resulting in a DAX sell off close to 160 points and a failed fade trade. Today we have a load of PMI’s due out Continue Reading →
23
MAR
Summary
Lee Kuan Yew: An Asian giant passes
Greece unresolved: Capital controls?
United States: Debunking the Fed “Dots”
The Week Ahead: US CPI data key for the week
Good morning,
If you could invest in people who would you Continue Reading →
23
MAR
Commentary:
Macro view has never been easier. Stocks are up and so is the dollar albeit at a slower pace than we expected. Friday saw a really good rally on stocks and I am now targeting 12,500 for the DAX and 18,500 for the DOW. The dollar is profit taking Continue Reading →
20
MAR
Summary:
United States: USD less of a one way bet now
United States: Weekly claims stay sub 300k
China: The return of the 1970s again
Chinese hydraulic Keynesianism
Australia: Hitting the buffers?
Good morning,
Commentary:
Greece is still on the agenda but it looks like a can kicking deal will be done at the eleventh hour yet again. That means there are no big issues for the market to concern itself, very rare. So we are set fair for the macro-view to do some Continue Reading →
19
MAR
Summary:
United States: ‘Patient’ is gone now all about the data
United Kingdom: Unemployment rate falls again
Good morning from the glorious Italian Alps about as far away from the Fed as possible, however talking to Continue Reading →
Commentary:
Astonishing price action on the FOMC minutes and Janet Yellen. I can summarise the content very easily but I cannot justify the volatility we saw in prices.
Basically they removed the word patience but then stated they would be very slow to increase rates and the pace of increases Continue Reading →
Summary:
What Netanyahu’s victory means
Yellen to take a step closer to normalisation
United States: Weaker housing data
Turkey: One to watch – always
Good morning,
Many years ago I had a wonderful job. Continue Reading →
18
MAR
Commentary:
An interesting last couple of days in the markets, the DAX eventually caved in to some profit taking and the DOW held in well despite all the speculation that we are in for a major correction. Big rally on the FSTE as the market finally buys into some of Continue Reading →
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