IIFT Daily Note with Peter Brown

Archive for October, 2017


Not so scary markets for Halloween

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:29 am  |  Topic:
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Happy Halloween,

(Niall here doing a quick fill in for Peter this morning)

We don’t appear to have missed too much over the long weekend. Monday is usually a slow day for economic data anyway so nothing much was expected to drive the markets.

Main story from Europe that is Continue Reading →

Mario Delivered

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:40 am  |  Topic:
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Good Morning

Well after a quiet start, which was to be expected, Mario really delivered. More QE until September 2018! The DAX loved that and the Euro got clobbered. That sets the tone for a long time in regard to the European macro view, dovish and very much so.

The Continue Reading →

Draghi day! and it should be a big one.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:38 am  |  Topic:
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Good Morning

Wow, a bit of action! A good fade trade on the DAX early, a great straddle on the CAD and a crazy up and down streak on the indices late on. What caused the sell-off is a bit vague as after good growth data the market seemed to Continue Reading →

Plenty of data on the way.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:07 am  |  Topic:
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Good Morning

We have some serious data today and some straddle trade opportunities. It has been frustrating of late as we lack volatility to trigger swing trades on either the DAX or S&P. With the data today and Mario Draghi tomorrow, we are set for some good action hopefully.

Yesterday Continue Reading →

Very quiet for now.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:32 am  |  Topic:
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Good Morning

Very poor day volatility wise, yesterday. The DAX did not move all day and other markets were stuck also. Later on, the S&P took a correction and fell 140 points. The only reason for that is a bit of correction as there is no stories in the market Continue Reading →

Big week ahead, Spain and Draghi the big issues.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:43 am  |  Topic:
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A IIFT 2

Good Morning

It is going to be a big week with the main event being Mario Draghi on Thursday. He is expected to announce a monetary policy for 2018 and that will be around QE and the tapering timeline. So, expect the Euro to be volatile this week and especially Continue Reading →

A bit more action yesterday.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:37 am  |  Topic:
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A IIFT 2

Good Morning

The market was hauled out of its lethargy yesterday with a volatile day both on the downside and the upside. The DAX, for the first time in quite a while, put in a big move from the open. We smashed through a number of support levels and finally Continue Reading →

That is a bit better.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:41 am  |  Topic:
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A IIFT 2

Good Morning

The market shrugged off that sideways feeling to put in a strong rally yesterday. Buoyed by earnings data and good growth globally and then overnight good data from China, this market is in a serious bull run. We are posting new all-time highs on a daily basis.

It Continue Reading →

We trundle along without much happening.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:40 am  |  Topic:
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A IIFT 2

Good Morning

Wow, these markets are something else, very, very quiet, but also very stable. Yesterday was another day of small rises and very low volatility. We did get a fade trade off the DAX and that was about the only decent action.

More of the same today, there is Continue Reading →

UK CPI is where the opportunity lies.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:44 am  |  Topic:
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Good Morning

As expected yesterday it was a bit slow and only the sell on the S&P was triggered by levels set on the blog. The DAX is still too slow and not moving enough to offer good trades.

The dollar was a bit higher on the back of earnings Continue Reading →

Be safe today, markets are quiet.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:38 am  |  Topic:
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Good Morning

Friday was only notable for a fall in US CPI which softened up the dollar a bit. Indices finished higher bit only by a bit. DAX levels worked well.

This morning the Euro is under pressure with the dollar which is unusual. Brexit is hurting the Euro and Continue Reading →

US CPI at 13.30 the highlight.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:32 am  |  Topic:
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Good Morning

It was another flat day broken by a bit of action on Sterling. Otherwise, it was a bit too slow to trigger a fade trade.

Levels this morning are mostly unchanged and outside a bit of US data at 13.30 pm, I expect another slow one. The mood Continue Reading →

Can earnings season provide some umph?

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:35 am  |  Topic:
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Good Morning

Again it was as expected yesterday but very slow in the European session. We had a bit of dollar selling into the FED minutes and that was due to rate expectations and lower inflation.

Today marks the start of earnings season and first up are the banks before Continue Reading →

Very quiet again.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:35 am  |  Topic:
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Good Morning

Not even the GBP figures managed to stir the market yesterday. However, we had another nice day where support and resistance levels worked on the DAX. Looking at the calendar we should get more of the same again today.

The only notable mover was the dollar which was Continue Reading →

Calm conditions to continue

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Good Morning

Well, yesterday was as expected. A low volatile day where support and resistance levels held across the board. Great, just the trading conditions for us and let’s hope for more of the same today. Levels are tighter now on FX which will broaden the choice. There is nothing Continue Reading →

Slow start to the week.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:35 am  |  Topic:
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Good Morning

The NFP on Friday was a bad figure based on the headline and that was due to the Hurricanes. The important figure was the hourly earnings rate and that was higher, signaling inflation and more rate rises. Initially, that pumped the dollar up but then we settled back Continue Reading →

Volatility picks up, but calm remains.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:21 am  |  Topic:
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Good Morning

U.S. stock-market indexes posted solid gains and closed at all-time highs on Thursday after Congress passed a budget resolution—a step seen as setting the stage for an overhaul of the tax code. Suddenly though, every thing is moving. All indices are higher but so is the dollar. Euro Continue Reading →

More of the Same

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Good Morning

The market worked out perfectly yesterday. A bit of a sell-off early on with the Spanish crisis, but support held in well at 12,900 and then a decent bounce when the Americans came in.

This market is very predictable and we would expect something similar today. The levels Continue Reading →

Bias is still up for indices but the dollar has stalled.

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Good Morning

The stock markets continued their rally yesterday despite the German market being closed. The dollar, however, had a weak day and that was put down to announcements around Janet Yellen’s replacement next year. Those names have been out before so I think it was more to do with Continue Reading →

The rally continues

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:30 am  |  Topic:  |  Comments: 3
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Good Morning

The market powered ahead again yesterday after good data from the US. Interestingly the morning session was negative and that was due to the Spanish crisis. But when the US stock market opened we had a very solid buying session. All the markets are nicely correlated so when Continue Reading →