IIFT Daily Note with Peter Brown

Archive for December, 2017


Santa rally to continue for a while

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:33 am  |  Topic:
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Good Morning

As expected a good strong up day all round for the indices, nothing else moving in reality. This morning and this afternoon it is likely that trend will continue, so buy on dips is the correct strategy. I would not be a seller in this market at any Continue Reading →

A few bob left in this market before Christmas.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:39 am  |  Topic:
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iift-email

Good Morning

The start of the Christmas week and it seems the US stock rally has not finished yet. That is the driver of the markets and the euphoria around Trump’s tax plans. We have even driven the DAX higher at last.

Other markets are completely flat and only trades Continue Reading →

The market has a Christmas feel.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:37 am  |  Topic:
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iift-email

Good Morning

That is it in regards major announcements for the year. The Central bankers are on holidays and the market will adopt that tone soon also.

We had a bit of a pull-back yesterday as the Tax cuts ran into some difficulty. I expect that story to run and Continue Reading →

Last action from the Central banks today.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:41 am  |  Topic:
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A IIFT 2

Good Morning

The rate rise came and that is Janet Yellen’s last act as Fed chairman. The forward guidance was as expected and dovish to be honest. That meant the dollar fell in the end and the stock market reached another all-time high.

No rest today as we have the Continue Reading →

US rate decision and Fed minutes today.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:38 am  |  Topic:
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A IIFT 2

Good Morning

Today is the last big news day of the year. Janet Yellen has a last chance to raise rates by a further .25% this evening. There is a 90% chance she will do that, so the only surprise is no change. We can straddle that using only Continue Reading →

Plenty of data today

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:53 am  |  Topic:
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iift-email

Good Morning

The market was as expected yesterday, a quiet start but an upward bias. Today we start to get into the data releases. Especially those linked to inflation and interest rates. There is a straddle first thing in the UK.

Bias is still to the upside although more so Continue Reading →

Quiet start to an active week.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:43 am  |  Topic:
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iift-email

Good Morning

A bit late this morning due to the weather, so a quick one.

The NFP on Friday kept the rally intact and the market bias is up this morning also. A bit of confusion over the Brexit deal has GBP on the back foot. FX is really steady, Continue Reading →

Deal in Europe should add to the positive sentiment.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:32 am  |  Topic:
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iift-email

Good Morning

There is a lot going on. Firstly the Index markets have their mojo back and with that, the dollar is rising. We have the NFP today and a decision on rates next week. The NFP is not as important as in the past; inflation and growth are more Continue Reading →

Bitcoin killing gold.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:44 am  |  Topic:
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iift-email

Good Morning

Yesterday we saw a bit of a recovery on the index markets. Foreign exchange was pretty flat but gold and silver fell hard. Maybe it is the money going into Bitcoin and leaving gold that is causing such a sustained sell-off. The safe-haven status of gold has not Continue Reading →

Very volatile conditions, direction lost.

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iift-email

Good Morning

We are experiencing really volatile moves across all index markets. FX and commodities are stable but the indices are untradeable. There is a great lesson here for everybody and that is; we like the calm and choppy markets, this stuff is no good for retail traders.

Can we Continue Reading →

All over the shop really.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:38 am  |  Topic:
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iift-email

Good Morning

Indices are all over the shop. The Tax cuts in the US and Brexit in the UK. We are experiencing wild swings in values and the market are whizzing up and down hundreds of points. Hurricane market conditions are now in play even though today we may settle Continue Reading →

Tax cuts achieved, on an up.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:13 am  |  Topic:
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iift-email

Good Morning

Friday afternoon was mayhem with some serious up and down action. Flynn and his defection and then the news all had been waiting for, the tax cuts. The market was ballistic trading up and down hundreds of points. That is why we use risk management and recommend being careful Continue Reading →

Market is a bit confused

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:38 am  |  Topic:
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iift-email

Good Morning

Suddenly there is a lot moving. I am not so sure all of it makes sense and is not due to Christmas markets, and year-end coming early. The Euro is rising against the dollar but the dollar is up against the JPY. Gold is getting killed, the US Continue Reading →