IIFT Daily Note with Peter Brown

All quiet and stable.

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Commentary:

Writing the blog from Tralee. We are doing our countrywide seminars and having a lot of fun. The market yesterday was very quiet as expected. A bit of a foot on the ball after the last week or so.

Today we have two straddle trade possibilities, US and CAD CPI. Both are at 1.30pm  USD/JPY for the first and USD /CAD for the second. Other wise expect a little more volatility with the same calls as yesterday.

DAX fade trade a good chance to start the day.

 

Latest Trading Strategies:

Dax Fade Trade.

This trade is working really well, mainly because there is no big news story to make the first DAX move a big one. Some days the trade is only worth 20/50 points but it is happening frequently. Good way to make money in a quiet market.

We have noticed that after the initial 8am market move the DAX is reversing that move on a consistence basis. Look to fade the initial market move either higher or lower after the first 15/30 minutes. Unlikely to work on days where there is a big story in the market (rarely at present) or where my condition call is Hurricane. Trade is worth 40/80 points.

 

Dow/S&P Gap play from below.

A downside gap occurs when we have bad news in Asia or Europe so we are not getting many at present. However if one does present itself the chances of success are very high.

The gap play has a high success rate when traded from a down gap. Look to set trades between 11.30am to 12.30pm. Be careful if there are major news releases in from the US at 1.30pm. Market may wait until then to start the move. If the gap close has not completed by 3.30pm square up.

 

Straddle Trade.

I am looking to use the straddle trade technique for the next few months. I think the market conditions are perfect for this technique. I will recommend trying the straddle on various economic releases some in unusual products. Remember 20 point stops are the norm although on some of the products I may recommend more. I am hoping for feed-back from other traders who are using this technique. I will update the strategy from the calendar each day.

 

 

Wall St (DFB)

Janet Yellen is up again today but do not expect anything more from her. She is a dove and has proved that yesterday. Market may be a little over extended but the trend is up, Buy on dips.

 

 

Conditions: Choppy Resistance: 18,260 Support: 18,130

 

 

S&P Mar Future

As above

 

Conditions: Choppy Resistance: 2,118 Support: 2,106

 

 

DAX (DFB)

W may be  alittle high to start but the trend is solid and up. 11,800 here we come

 

Conditions: Choppy Resistance: 11,270 Support: 11,180

 

 

FTSE 100 (DFB)

New all-time high. Like all other markets it is a buy on dips.

 

Conditions: Choppy Resistance: 6,970 Support: 6,935

 

 

EUR/USD (DFB)

Support is holding very well at 1.13   Sell on rallies above 1.14

 

Conditions: Choppy Resistance: 1.1425 Support: 1.1300

 

 

USD/JPY (DFB)

Dollar a little weaker on Janet. Buy at the bottom of the range for a strategic play, if we reach there.

 

Conditions: Calm Resistance: 120.00 Support: 117.00

 

 

AUD/USD (DFB)

Higher on a weak dollar and some RBA comments. A sell if we get towards the top of the range at .80

 

Conditions: Choppy Resistance: ..8000 Support: .7630

 

 

GOLD (DFB)

I think gold is sidelined in and around this level. No trades here for a while unless we extend to the downside where is may get too cheap. First level to watch is 1180. We bounced overnight on the weak dollar but still the value is the buy on a dip lower.

 

Conditions: Choppy Resistance: 1225 Support: 1180

 

 

SILVER (DFB)

Running up and down with gold. No need to jump in yet, let the market find a floor there will be a trade there. That floor may come as Gold hits 1180.

 

Conditions: Choppy Resistance: 16.50 Support: 16.00

 

 

Market Conditions

Potential Moves:

  • Calm = 20/50 pts
  • Choppy = 60/80 pts
  • Hurricane = 100+ pts

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