IIFT Daily Note with Peter Brown

Another chance for the ECB to do nothing!

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:45 am  |  Topic:
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Two main events today, the ECB rate decision and press conference and the EU leaders summit on Ukraine. Frankly do not expect much from either.

It will be a big surprise if Mr Draghi lowers rates or even hints at a stimulus package. Germany is performing well and it would not suit their agenda to easy monetary policy further. Euro should spike a bit on this  1.3825/00 level should set up as a good sell. On the Ukraine front the market is resigned to some compromise that allows Russia to hold the Crimea. Big sanctions will only hurt Europe so they are unlikely also.

Market is settling down somewhat and stocks look good. Again we highlight the low interest rate factor that make fund and hedge managers reluctant to sell stocks. We are still in the position that any bad news and dip in levels is a buying opportunity.

Trading today Calm/choppy Levels are S&P (MAR) 1880 1870 Wall St (DFB) 16430  16340  DAX (DFB) 9600  9525 Euro 1.3800  1.3700

Bias to the top side on stocks, fade the Euro bounce at 1.3800

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