IIFT Daily Note with Peter Brown

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David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 2:49 pm  |  Topic:
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Daily Note – Bank of England firmly grounded

BOE-mpc-meeting-DatesSummary

  • Currency stirrings in China
  • Brent Crude hits 6-year low
  • United Kingdom: Rates on hold into Q2 2016
  • United States: Import prices fall less than expected

Good morning,

The Chinese currency (Yuan) appears to be headed Continue Reading →

David’s Daily Note – Volatility’s Comeback

Posted by:  |  Time: 11:41 am  |  Topic:
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Daily Note – Volatility’s Comeback

VIX_cartoon_07.07.2014Summary

  • Turkey in Trouble?
  • South African carry trade unwinding?
  • Aussie employment surprise
  • A post-mortem on ECB disappointment

Good morning,

Things are certainly heating up in the Mid-East, and Turkey seems to fumbling its way to the epicentre of the crisis.

Already public Continue Reading →

David’s Daily Note – Preparing for the new year

Posted by:  |  Time: 11:01 am  |  Topic:
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Daily Note – Preparing for the new year

New_yearSummary

  • Geo-political stirrings
  • Markets positioning defensively around Fed hike
  • Scope for further Dollar appreciation
  • Support for European risk assets

Good morning,

Lots going on today, as the Kurds visit Istanbul to get the Turks to commit to the fight Continue Reading →

David’s Daily Note – Trump’s Republican Schism?

Posted by:  |  Time: 11:51 am  |  Topic:
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Daily Note – Trump’s Republican Schism?

trump-cartoon-6Summary

Waving goodbye to the GOP?

Political shift away from the mainstream

America approaching full employment

The case against US equities in 2016

Good morning,

Trump may well be a buffoon, but he is carving out a significant piece of the Continue Reading →

David’s Daily Note – The Three I’s driving Europe

Posted by:  |  Time: 10:46 am  |  Topic:
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The Three I’s driving Europe

marine le pen heartlandSummary

  • ECB spin function in overdrive
  • Immigration, Islam & Isis
  • United States: The runway has been cleared for lift-off
  • The Week Ahead: US retail sales to the fore

Good morning,

Thank God that horrible weekend, weather-wise, is behind us. Flying back to Continue Reading →

David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 3:30 pm  |  Topic:
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Daily Note – Draghi Disappoints

624140_1Summary

  • ECB stimulus falls short of the mark
  • Stronger euro, higher yields & lower equities
  • Rate cut, QE extension & change in composition
  • Better economic data pushes ECB to under-deliver

Good morning,

The package announced by President Draghi yesterday Continue Reading →

David’s Daily Note – Thatcher’s Brexit Blueprint

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Daily Note – Thatcher’s Brexit Blueprint

Margaret-Thatcher-StatueSummary

  • Looking to Yellen for clues
  • United States: Manufacturing sentiment contracts
  • Eurozone: Manufacturing sentiment remains stable

Good morning,

Had a great chat about Brexit yesterday which took me back to my old days listening to Mrs Thatcher in Bruges in 1988. Continue Reading →

David’s Daily Note – The man without a plan?

Posted by:  |  Time: 3:48 pm  |  Topic:
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Daily Note – The man without a plan?

draghi-saloon_2Summary

  • ECB has no plan and looking to surprise!
  • Winging it with monetary policy!
  • Municipal bond buying is still on the table
  • Complexity in a crowded-market? Move to side-lines!

Good morning from London,

With 2 days to go to Continue Reading →

David’s Daily Note – Divergence Picking Up Steam

Posted by:  |  Time: 11:11 am  |  Topic:
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Daily Note – Divergence Picking Up Steam

Steam-trainSummary

  • On the move to London!
  • Deflation still the problem, more ECB easing to come!
  • Euro-Dollar to ring in the New Year at parity?
  • The Week Ahead: Focus on the ECB & US Jobs

Good morning,

It’s a filthy one Continue Reading →

David’s Daily Note – Draghi’s Deflation Dilemma Remains

Posted by:  |  Time: 12:54 pm  |  Topic:
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Daily Note – Draghi’s Deflation Dilemma Remains

Deflation_cartoon_01.21.2015_largeSummary

  • Rout in Industrial Metals
  • Improving data enough delay more ECB QE?
  • Combatting deflation remains Draghi’s mission
  • Eurozone: PMI data supports moderate growth

Good morning,

Asian equities traded lower during the morning session (China -0.5%, Australia -1.0%), led by tumbling Continue Reading →

David’s Daily Note – Focusing on the flight path

Posted by:  |  Time: 12:05 pm  |  Topic:
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Daily Note – Focusing on the flight path

Aviation-aircraft-flight-path-vector-material-55581Summary

  • Market Round-up
  • The 3 critical dates set to drive financial markets
  • Forget about lift-off and focus on the flight path!
  • The Week Ahead: Busy week before Thanksgiving

Good morning,

The USD extended its rally during Asian hours today Continue Reading →

Posted by:  |  Time: 10:50 am  |  Topic:
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Daily Note- Dismissing Copper Concerns

education-copper-man-300Summary

  • Deflation & anaemic growth remain
  • Going Crazy about Copper?
  • United States: Some weakness in Housing Starts

Good morning,

While all eyes remain fixed on Paris, the big themes that have characterised the past few years remain – deflation and anaemic growth. Continue Reading →

David’s Daily Note – Do all roads lead to Riyadh?

Posted by:  |  Time: 11:07 am  |  Topic:
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Daily Note – Do all roads lead to Riyadh?

154154_600Summary

  • Saudi’s fundamentalist favouring
  • A classic post-bubble balance sheet implosion!
  • United States: Nothing to sway Fed’s desire to hike
  • United Kingdom: Weak CPI suggests no 2016 lift off
  • Eurozone: Investor confidence improves

Good morning,

As I write, the Continue Reading →

David’s Daily Note – Irish football fans to the rescue?

Posted by:  |  Time: 10:43 am  |  Topic:
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Daily Note – Irish football fans to the rescue?

article-2157149-138B057F000005DC-967_634x398Summary

  • Could Ireland be a 2nd Greece… in football terms?
  • Testing times for President Hollande
  • French political tension on the rise
  • Economic impact of the attacks to be short-lived

Good morning,

It remains to be seen whether Continue Reading →

David’s Daily Note – Paris is a Game Changer

Posted by:  |  Time: 2:12 pm  |  Topic:
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Daily Note – Paris is a Game Changer

Hong Kong France Paris AttacksSummary

  • Markets mourning for Paris
  • Playing into Assad’s hand?
  • Eurozone: GDP data suggests more ECB stimulus
  • The Week Ahead: FOMC minutes to the fore

Good morning,

Paris is a game changer. France will not hold back and ultimately, this Continue Reading →

David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 11:48 am  |  Topic:
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Daily Note – Oil’s Unyielding Supply Glut

Oil_cartoon_12.09.2014_largeSummary

  • When deflation is the enemy, the cure is inflation
  • Oil remains under pressure
  • Crude stockpiles at all time high
  • United States: Robust labour conditions

Good morning,

Very cold here in Dublin, the temperature must’ve dropped ten Continue Reading →

David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 11:42 am  |  Topic:
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Daily Note – The Flip Side of the Coin

coinSummary

  • Federal Reserve balancing act
  • Getting off zero without torpedoing asset prices
  • Ditching financial jiggery pokery for business growth?
  • Draghi to lend Yellen a helping hand?

Good morning,

As we head into the slow period Continue Reading →

David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 1:30 pm  |  Topic:
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Daily Note – Making Procrastination a Strategy

procrastinate_secret_investor_societySummary

  • Advice from the master
  • Super dovish Super Thursday?
  • More than a game of follow the leader for BoE
  • The quest to master inflation

Good Morning,

Had a fascinating dinner last night with Nassim Taleb. These Continue Reading →

David’s Daily Note – Oil’s Sugar Daddy feeling the pinch

Posted by:  |  Time: 11:02 am  |  Topic:
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Daily Note – Oil’s Sugar Daddy feeling the pinch

Saudis_new_king_to_keep_old_policiesSummary

  • A weekend with the best brains in economics & finance
  • Sino-American rate divergence has Asia fretting
  • Positioning for higher rates & a stronger Dollar

Good morning,

Hope all is well. I spent the weekend with some of Continue Reading →

David’s Daily Note – A festive Fed lift-off?

Posted by:  |  Time: 3:14 pm  |  Topic:
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Daily Note – A festive Fed lift-off?

tumblr_inline_mtounxEd8f1r5nkovSummary

  • Asian Equity round-up
  • United States: Jobs data points to December hike
  • The Week Ahead: US retail sales to the fore

Good morning,

Asian equity markets were mixed during morning trading. Equities in China (+2.0%) and Japan (+2.0%) were the Continue Reading →