IIFT Daily Note with Peter Brown

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DAX under a bit of pressure.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:43 am  |  Topic:
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iift-email

Good Morning

The US market is down a bit which is surprising after dovish Fed minutes. The dollar is lower also but not a lot.

The big mover is the DAX which is down 200 on new election fears. All in all the markets are up and down these days Continue Reading →

Big rally underway.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:37 am  |  Topic:
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iift-email

Good Morning

A really strong up day yesterday and the rally is back. The S&P hit an all-time high and sets the tone for the run into year end. We may get a feeding frenzy so selling any of these rallies is not a great trade. Buy on dips is Continue Reading →

Market back in good mood.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:35 am  |  Topic:
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iift-email

Good Morning

A bit of a bum steer yesterday I am afraid. It turned out to be an up day after all. In fact, the market looks much better now and we may have seen the bottom of the profit taking. Certainly, we are not in a bear market. Can Continue Reading →

A bit of negativity to start.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:41 am  |  Topic:
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iift-email

Good Morning

The mood this morning is not good. Merkel has failed to form a coalition and that is weighing heavily on the European markets. Brexit is still a mess and in the US, despite the passage of the TAX bill at an early stage, the market, after a brief Continue Reading →

Dollar lower is a surprise.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:38 am  |  Topic:
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A IIFT 2

Good Morning

The dollar is sliding and that is interesting. We have had some good news to support it, Trump Tax cuts, a rate rise coming, Abe in japan re committing to stimulus and yet we are weaker. We may be at the end of the strong dollar cycle. Given Continue Reading →

Markets bouncing strongly.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:47 am  |  Topic:
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iift-email

Good Morning

Yesterday was a down day until the US market opened and then we rallied strongly. The recent falls are more to do with a profit take then a change in direction. US data continues strong and despite some weak readings in China, I believe this market is solid Continue Reading →

Stock correction continues

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:23 am  |  Topic:
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A IIFT 2

Good Morning

The stock market correction continued yesterday and the US market is now down 1% from the peak. Not that much really but because we are not used to seeing bear markets it looks significant. Trump’s laboured tax plans can be used to explain the selling but I am Continue Reading →

Good German data pushing up the Euro

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:46 am  |  Topic:
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iift-email

Good Morning

Yesterday was another up and down day for stocks, everything else was pretty quiet. Today we have some data releases and Yellen and Draghi are speaking at a European Central bank conference. I am not expecting much from them but given there is little else on the agenda Continue Reading →

Inflation the theme this week.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:41 am  |  Topic:
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iift-email

Good Morning

Stock markets are on the back foot. The indecision on the Trump tax plans is causing concern in the US while a higher oil and Euro price is causing the DAX to correct more on the European side. We have GBP under pressure this morning due to the Continue Reading →

Market has a set back.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:34 am  |  Topic:
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iift-email

Good Morning

Yesterday saw a significant sell off both in Europe and the US. Trump’s tax bill and tensions in Saudi Arabia are been held as the reasons. The US market recovered late on and that dragged the DAX up 100 points from the low. I warned yesterday about the Continue Reading →

Lower in Asia but nothing dramatic.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:35 am  |  Topic:
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iift-email

Good Morning

We had a bit of up and down yesterday and a sell-off overnight. Stocks and the dollar are lower on Trump’s visit to china and a profit take in Asia. All in all nothing major to get excited about. We are ending the week on a flat note Continue Reading →

A bit of a pull back, that’s all.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:39 am  |  Topic:
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iift-email

Good Morning

The market had a down day. It is hard to predict when we have setbacks to such a strong rally because anything or nothing can cause the selling. It is a profit take really as there is no definitive news to cause a re-think.

The Saudi situation, the Continue Reading →

Asian markets lead another leg up.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:40 am  |  Topic:
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iift-email

Good Morning

We have had a surge in stock prices overnight, mainly driven by a rise in Asian markets. In particular energy, stocks are higher and that is down to the improved global outlook. The trend continues it seems and nothing on the geopolitical landscape is affecting the markets.

After Continue Reading →

Geopolitical issue to the fore today.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:40 am  |  Topic:
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iift-email

Good Morning

We got a decent read on the NFP Friday. Not the 300k expected but 260k all the same. The dollar liked it and stocks were mixed as expected.

The weekend has been full of geopolitical issues; Saudi Arabia and the paradise leaks. Not much reaction in the markets Continue Reading →

NFP today, could be volatile.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:36 am  |  Topic:  |  Comments: 2
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iift-email

Good Morning

We had the rate rise yesterday in the UK and sterling fell. That was due to the fact that it was well signaled in advance and the dovish comments from Carney after. The next moves on UK interest rates will depend on the economy and inflation but they Continue Reading →

BOE to hike today but it is in the price.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:38 am  |  Topic:
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iift-email

Good Morning

It was a strange day yesterday we stalled on rallies both in Europe and the US. That was expected really as we have come so far in such a short time. The market may trade sideways from here for a while. No rate rise in the US, so Continue Reading →

Markets still look for more gains.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:40 am  |  Topic:
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iift-email

Good Morning

It is the first day in November and the stock markets are continuing to rally. A stall may be on the cards at some stage but a setback looks unlikely. Despite all Trumps’ troubles, the market is set for more gains initially at least.

The big mover is Continue Reading →

Mario Delivered

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:40 am  |  Topic:
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iift-email

Good Morning

Well after a quiet start, which was to be expected, Mario really delivered. More QE until September 2018! The DAX loved that and the Euro got clobbered. That sets the tone for a long time in regard to the European macro view, dovish and very much so.

The Continue Reading →

Draghi day! and it should be a big one.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:38 am  |  Topic:
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iift-email

Good Morning

Wow, a bit of action! A good fade trade on the DAX early, a great straddle on the CAD and a crazy up and down streak on the indices late on. What caused the sell-off is a bit vague as after good growth data the market seemed to Continue Reading →

Plenty of data on the way.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:07 am  |  Topic:
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iift-email

Good Morning

We have some serious data today and some straddle trade opportunities. It has been frustrating of late as we lack volatility to trigger swing trades on either the DAX or S&P. With the data today and Mario Draghi tomorrow, we are set for some good action hopefully.

Yesterday Continue Reading →