IIFT Daily Note with Peter Brown

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Santa rally to continue for a while

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:33 am  |  Topic:
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iift-email

Good Morning

As expected a good strong up day all round for the indices, nothing else moving in reality. This morning and this afternoon it is likely that trend will continue, so buy on dips is the correct strategy. I would not be a seller in this market at any Continue Reading →

A few bob left in this market before Christmas.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:39 am  |  Topic:
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iift-email

Good Morning

The start of the Christmas week and it seems the US stock rally has not finished yet. That is the driver of the markets and the euphoria around Trump’s tax plans. We have even driven the DAX higher at last.

Other markets are completely flat and only trades Continue Reading →

The market has a Christmas feel.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:37 am  |  Topic:
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iift-email

Good Morning

That is it in regards major announcements for the year. The Central bankers are on holidays and the market will adopt that tone soon also.

We had a bit of a pull-back yesterday as the Tax cuts ran into some difficulty. I expect that story to run and Continue Reading →

Last action from the Central banks today.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:41 am  |  Topic:
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A IIFT 2

Good Morning

The rate rise came and that is Janet Yellen’s last act as Fed chairman. The forward guidance was as expected and dovish to be honest. That meant the dollar fell in the end and the stock market reached another all-time high.

No rest today as we have the Continue Reading →

US rate decision and Fed minutes today.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:38 am  |  Topic:
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A IIFT 2

Good Morning

Today is the last big news day of the year. Janet Yellen has a last chance to raise rates by a further .25% this evening. There is a 90% chance she will do that, so the only surprise is no change. We can straddle that using only Continue Reading →

Plenty of data today

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:53 am  |  Topic:
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iift-email

Good Morning

The market was as expected yesterday, a quiet start but an upward bias. Today we start to get into the data releases. Especially those linked to inflation and interest rates. There is a straddle first thing in the UK.

Bias is still to the upside although more so Continue Reading →

Quiet start to an active week.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:43 am  |  Topic:
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iift-email

Good Morning

A bit late this morning due to the weather, so a quick one.

The NFP on Friday kept the rally intact and the market bias is up this morning also. A bit of confusion over the Brexit deal has GBP on the back foot. FX is really steady, Continue Reading →

Deal in Europe should add to the positive sentiment.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:32 am  |  Topic:
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iift-email

Good Morning

There is a lot going on. Firstly the Index markets have their mojo back and with that, the dollar is rising. We have the NFP today and a decision on rates next week. The NFP is not as important as in the past; inflation and growth are more Continue Reading →

Bitcoin killing gold.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:44 am  |  Topic:
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iift-email

Good Morning

Yesterday we saw a bit of a recovery on the index markets. Foreign exchange was pretty flat but gold and silver fell hard. Maybe it is the money going into Bitcoin and leaving gold that is causing such a sustained sell-off. The safe-haven status of gold has not Continue Reading →

Very volatile conditions, direction lost.

Posted by:
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iift-email

Good Morning

We are experiencing really volatile moves across all index markets. FX and commodities are stable but the indices are untradeable. There is a great lesson here for everybody and that is; we like the calm and choppy markets, this stuff is no good for retail traders.

Can we Continue Reading →

All over the shop really.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:38 am  |  Topic:
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iift-email

Good Morning

Indices are all over the shop. The Tax cuts in the US and Brexit in the UK. We are experiencing wild swings in values and the market are whizzing up and down hundreds of points. Hurricane market conditions are now in play even though today we may settle Continue Reading →

Tax cuts achieved, on an up.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:13 am  |  Topic:
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iift-email

Good Morning

Friday afternoon was mayhem with some serious up and down action. Flynn and his defection and then the news all had been waiting for, the tax cuts. The market was ballistic trading up and down hundreds of points. That is why we use risk management and recommend being careful Continue Reading →

Market is a bit confused

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:38 am  |  Topic:
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iift-email

Good Morning

Suddenly there is a lot moving. I am not so sure all of it makes sense and is not due to Christmas markets, and year-end coming early. The Euro is rising against the dollar but the dollar is up against the JPY. Gold is getting killed, the US Continue Reading →

More gains to come

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:36 am  |  Topic:
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iift-email

Good Morning

The market took a breather yesterday. The US levels are the same again this morning but we are a bit off the highs. The rally is still very much in place in the US but the DAX has been lagging badly. Not quite sure why but the higher Continue Reading →

And so it begins.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:40 am  |  Topic:
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iift-email

Good Morning

The Santa Clause rally took off in earnest last night. After European close just to be annoying, but it was some surge. More upside to come I suspect as there is no bad news around. Even North Korean exercises failed to dampen enthusiasm.

We may have to pull Continue Reading →

Still biased to the upside.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:39 am  |  Topic:
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iift-email

Good Morning

Well, the market was slightly bullish yesterday but fairly quiet, to be honest. There is little on the calendar again today so very much, more of the same. My Santa Clause rally has not started and the S&P is still stuck winning new very small all-time highs.

Volatility Continue Reading →

Can we get a Christmas rally?

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:44 am  |  Topic:
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iift-email

Good Morning

Again the Chinese market is a bit lower overnight. We have to weigh that against a better outlook politically in Germany but the DAX is lower. It will be interesting to see the sentiment this morning. I am going for a slow day with an upward bias after Continue Reading →

Happy thanksgiving to all our US friends.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:30 am  |  Topic:
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iift-email

Good Morning

It was quiet yesterday and we expect the same again today. Thanksgiving in the US so the markets there are closing early.

Trading wise the index markets look really good and I would not be surprised if we got a Christmas rally on the S&P and the DAX. Continue Reading →

DAX under a bit of pressure.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:43 am  |  Topic:
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iift-email

Good Morning

The US market is down a bit which is surprising after dovish Fed minutes. The dollar is lower also but not a lot.

The big mover is the DAX which is down 200 on new election fears. All in all the markets are up and down these days Continue Reading →

Big rally underway.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:37 am  |  Topic:
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iift-email

Good Morning

A really strong up day yesterday and the rally is back. The S&P hit an all-time high and sets the tone for the run into year end. We may get a feeding frenzy so selling any of these rallies is not a great trade. Buy on dips is Continue Reading →