IIFT Daily Note with Peter Brown

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‘Quantitative Tightening’ the new buzz word.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:33 am  |  Topic:
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iift-email

Good Morning

It is great to be back and many thanks to Niall for his fantastic blogs over the last two weeks.

This market looks pretty simple to me. We await Janet Yellen tomorrow night and her plans on ‘Quantitative Tightening’ the new buzz word in the market. Basically, she Continue Reading →

NFP today the big event.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:22 am  |  Topic:
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iift-email

Good Morning

The contrast between the US markets and the DAX is very strange. The US is powering ahead and we have NFP later today. The US economy is strong without inflation, so the dollar is steady and conditions are perfect for an attack on the all-time highs.

The European Continue Reading →

Dollar on the up.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:41 am  |  Topic:
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iift-email

Good Morning

Initially, it was very quiet and indeed the real action did not take off until after 4.30pm. Very good growth data from the US was the main news. That buoyed the dollar and eventually the stock market.

Interesting how the US market can rise when the dollar is Continue Reading →

Panic over for now.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:25 am  |  Topic:
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iift-email

Good Morning

It was a crazy session yesterday as the DAX took a major hit from the Korean situation but also from the rising Euro. We had to endure a morning of over selling waiting from Trump’s response. That came in the afternoon and the muted response calmed the market Continue Reading →

Korea back on the agenda.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:26 am  |  Topic:
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iift-email

Good Morning

Yesterday was as expected until we got another round of the Korean saga. This time it looks a bit more serious as the missile traveled over Japan. What response that will lead to is the key. Certainly, the market got a shock and the recovery was stalled in Continue Reading →

Bank Holiday in the UK.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:29 am  |  Topic:
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iift-email

Good Morning

Well, the take out from Jackson Hole was mixed. Janet said practically nothing and Draghi was interrupted as slightly hawkish. The main mover was EUR/USD which was over 100 points higher. Equity markets were mostly unchanged.

Today is a bank holiday in the UK but European markets are Continue Reading →

Jackson Hole is the big story.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:32 am  |  Topic:
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iift-email

Good Morning

Well, a positive day yesterday but after the rally, we sold off a bit. The Tech levels were unreal both support and resistance. Today it is all about Jackson Hole and Yellen and Draghi.

Yellen is up at 3 pm but Draghi is not on until 8 pm. Continue Reading →

Expect a neutral day today, despite Trump.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:27 am  |  Topic:
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iift-email

Good Morning

Market moves are all about Trump again. This time it is about funding for his wall and a threat to close down Congress if he does not get the $1.6 billion dollars he needs to build it. Cloud cuckoo land to be honest but the market has little Continue Reading →

Trump rallies the market.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:29 am  |  Topic:
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iift-email

Good Morning

The index markets put in a very substantial bounce yesterday, triggered by talks of tax reforms. It didn’t take much! I have said many times that keeping this market down takes continual bad news and when that lets up or there is a hint of good news we Continue Reading →

More of the same

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:18 am  |  Topic:
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iift-email

Good Morning

The market did the usual yesterday, a bit of up and down. We finished on a strong note and opened this morning on the front foot. All of that is meaningless as we are subject to the next comment or tweet from Trump.

These conditions should stay until Continue Reading →

Still the Trump trade.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:31 am  |  Topic:
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iift-email

Good Morning

Still a summer market and still upset about Trump antics. The sell off on US markets towards the end of last week was severe for a couple of days trading. However, we are only down about 2.5% on the S&P since the high. What happens next is impossible Continue Reading →

Weakness returns

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:36 am  |  Topic:
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A IIFT 2

Good Morning

A very sharp sell-off yesterday. A few stories contributing, Barcelona and Trump. In reality the market is reacting because it is August and we have mentioned before how we get an over reaction to everything in the summer months.

It looks set to continue however, this market seems Continue Reading →

Another day at the office, nothing special.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:34 am  |  Topic:
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iift-email

Good Morning

Still a good bit of volatility and intraday action in these markets despite the lack of direction, especially FX which is quite volatile. Trump’s calamitous behaviour continues and that is driving sentiment. Levels on FX are wide and tricky but trades around the pivots are still the best Continue Reading →

Quiet day ahead.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:32 am  |  Topic:
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IIFT 2

Good Morning

Well, a pretty flat day yesterday after the rally previously. The market has calmed down as the Korean situation is diffused. Now there is no story and the market is back to its summer calm and directionless state.

We only have crude oil inventories and Fed minutes Continue Reading →

Market needs some calm.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:29 am  |  Topic:
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iift-email

Good Morning

Thank you to all (100 plus) who attended the summit on Saturday. I hope it wasn’t us who  drove the price of Bitcoin above $4,000! I hope you all got something from the event.

This market is all about Trump and Korea and the political internal mess in Continue Reading →

Korean tensions dominate.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:36 am  |  Topic:
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iift-email

Good Morning

I doubt this Korea story would have as much market reaction if we were in September. The thin August market combined with the desire for some sort of correction is what is at play here. Markets like corrections; it is like taking a breather on a long hike, Continue Reading →

Markets going nowhere really.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:25 am  |  Topic:
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A IIFT 2

Good Morning

Still about North Korea for now, but no new headlines. I think it will calm down behind the scenes and we will move on to something new. Earnings continue to come in better than expected and that is supportive of markets but direction is hard to find.

Dollar Continue Reading →

Trump and Korea dominate.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:35 am  |  Topic:
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A IIFT 2

Good Morning

It turned out to be a very choppy day yesterday which was a surprise. The market did the up and down action we expected but late on all markets got clobbered on the Trump/Korea issue. Certainly rhetoric like that will move summer markets. All a storm in a Continue Reading →

Expect very quiet trading conditions.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:32 am  |  Topic:
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A IIFT 2

Good Morning

The market has settled down for the next few weeks. Unless we get a story we are in for a quiet run. The DAX has bounced a bit and the dollar has levelled off. The big mover for now is sterling and the FTSE. When sterling is weak Continue Reading →

NFP is the main event.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:33 am  |  Topic:
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iift-email

Good Morning

Main news yesterday was the down grading of UK economic data from the BOE. That has certainly put a weakness into sterling and we are now trading above .9000

Outside of that the DAX continued along the floor and the US markets held up.

The GBP straddle was Continue Reading →