IIFT Daily Note with Peter Brown

Big week with FOMC and BOJ.

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Good Morning

We have a very big week ahead with the BOJ and the FOMC both meeting this week. The volatility may come on the FX markets rather than the indices as BOJ turn up the QE heat and will the FOMC hint at rate rises? This morning we are slightly lower on Asian sessions and we start off at the lows of last week. Oil is still very stable above $40 so we should be solid if range bound. Bias is neutral so trading off support and resistance is good.

On the FX side USD/JPY ran into a bit of a profit take at 112.00. I still fancy it much higher but we will be volatile Wednesday night Thursday morning. The combination of the BOJ/FOMC is a multi-hundred point move. I have cut the EUR/GBP overnight a nice winner there. Euro is sliding but I expect it to find some support soon.

Oil and commodities are still bid but with a strong dollar I still fancy silver lower so I will run that one.

DAX fade in play.

On the calendar today:.

German IFO @ 9.00 am

US New Home sales @ 3.00 pm



Comments and questions to pbrown@iift.ie


Day trading picture 1

S&P (Cash/DFB)

We open lower but I do not expect any major moves ahead of Wednesday. Normally we rally into Janet but this time I suspect we will limp in. She may hint at rate rises and that means a stronger dollar which the index market will not like.

Conditions: Choppy Resistance: 2,097 Support: 2,082

Wall St (DFB)

As above

Conditions: Choppy Resistance: 18,040 Support: 17,915


We have German ifo at 9am. Not a market mover so the DAX fade may be the highlight of the morning.

Conditions: Choppy Resistance: 10,435 Support: 10,320

FTSE 100 (DFB)

 FTSE off the highs despite good polls on BREXIT. Hard to call anything here to be honest.

Conditions: Choppy Resistance: 6,330 Support: 6,285


Nothing major going on in the Euro, just a slide lower really on a stronger dollar. We may stall here so range trading for a while.

Conditions: Hurricane Resistance: 1.1260 Support: 1.1200


I still feel there is a lot of upside especially with the BOJ/FOMC. Buy on dips.

Conditions: Choppy Resistance: 111.80 Support: 110.75


Day trading only.

Conditions: Choppy Resistance: .7740 Support: .7675


 Dollar strength is keeping this gold down but a big  week for gold and silver also. Short term there is little on the market except a day trade at support or resistance.

 Conditions: Choppy Resistance: 1260 Support: 1200


This trade is more a dollar trade than silver I suspect. Any how I will run with it for another day or so.

Conditions: Calm Resistance: 17.40 Support: 16.80


Strategic trades picture1

Eur/Gbp – Sell Trade closed at .7750 ( 165 points )

Sell Silver @ 16.92 S/L @ 17.75 No profit target yet.


Equity Trades picture1

LIVE Trades:

Moved stop to breakeven


Royal Dutch Shell PLC A (LSE) Jun 16

Average Long Position @ 1450 with SLO at 1450

the target is a return to 2000 or £20

the stock pays a large dividend circa 9% which spread traders will benefit 90% of.







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