IIFT Daily Note with Peter Brown

Dollar lower again.

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Good Morning

The dollar is the big mover in the market and that is keeeping a certain level of volatility going in all other products. Trump and all the sensational headlines is the cause, otherwise the market is very calm and devoid of news.The sacking of Mr Scaramucci yesterday evening dumped the dollar down a bit and we got the usual reaction in the DAX. The US indices were more or less unaffected but gold and silver bounced a bit.

It is all about Trump and the EUR/USD rate at the moment. The other markets are very happy ranging. It is the only story in town for now.

I suspect we will come to a pause in this saga soon and that will allow the DAX to recover when the Euro tops out. In the meantime trading conditions are good as it is providing activity. Without Trump headlines this market may go very quiet for the month of august.

Any how not much news today the big news days are Thursday for Sterling and Friday for the US.

DAX fade in play, I expect a DAX bounce so the bias is to the upside. FX trades are on the pivots, Euro looks a bit too high.

 

On the calendar today

GER Man PMI @ 8.55 am

UK man PMI @ 9.30 am

US Man PMI @ 15.00 pm

http://www.iift.ie/economic-calendar/

Comments and questions to pbrown@iift.ie

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Day trading picture 1

S&P (Rolling Daily)

Despite all the Trump stuff this market is ranging. Trade are at support and resistance, little or no direction.

Conditions: Choppy Resistance: 2482 Support: 2467

Wall St (Rolling Daily)

As above.

Conditions: Choppy Resistance: 22,095 Support: 21,890

DAX (Rolling Daily)

DAX is still being sold but down here is good support. I favour a bounce from here but don’t put the house on it..

 Conditions: Choppy Resistance: 12,180 Support: 12,050

FTSE 100 (Rolling Daily)

Pretty flat and directionless.

Conditions: Calm Resistance: 7,460 Support: 7,380

EUR/USD (Rolling Daily)

We are being driven up by US news, the Eurozone is very quiet. How many people can Trump sack? We must be coming to an end soon.

Conditions: Choppy Resistance: 1.1880 Support: 1.1760

USD/JPY (Rolling Daily)

We may be getting close to a bottom if Trump goes on holidays or stays quiet. Impossible to guess what happens next.

Conditions: Choppy Resistance: 110.45 Support: 109.85

EUR/GBP (Rolling daily)

Brexit is a joke but not impacting the currency meaningfully as yet. Still a lot of weakness around though and we are waiting to see if we can break higher than .9000

Conditions: Calm Resistance: .8980 Support: .8915

GOLD (Rolling Daily)

A pure dollar trade for now.

Conditions: Calm Resistance: 1274 Support: 1266

SILVER (Rolling Daily)

As above, but a little more volatile.

Conditions: Calm Resistance: 17.00 Support: 16.70

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