IIFT Daily Note with Peter Brown

Draghi Disappoints- Surprised not really!

Posted by:  |  Time: 8:13 am  |  Topic:  |  Comments: 2
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It is quiet clear, it is the old Bundesbank that is running the ECB. Even Mr. Draghi forgot that in his moment of madness last week in London. Was not able to deliver yesterday.

We are back to Spain, and when they will ask for a bailout. Spanish bond yields are now that signal for Risk on and Risk off.

This is now a bear market 1.1888 target on Euro and 1320 on then S&P. As ever we will not get there in a straight line.

Today we have a little distraction call the non farm payrolls. Because the market is bearish this is going to be a sell.

Here is how I will play it.

100k or below I am a seller 50% of a position, on the bounce I will sell the other 50%

Below 80K just sell 100%, we may get 1320 by Monday lunch time if we are that low.

Only a buy above 120K but it will be a rally to 6pm and then selloff.



August 3, 2012


Can hardly believe today’s reaction to Draghi. He brought nothing to the party, yet DAX and CAC now up 2.4%. My shorts are getting crushed.

S&P futures higher too. Payrolls probably will be close to 100,000 v 80,000 last month. Market will like. Doesn’t want to go down.

Weekend press analysis of Draghi will be negative, expect sizable market fall on Mon and Tues.

Spanish regions broke, Catalonia can’t pay wages. So far market doesn’t seem to care much. A lot of complacency about.


August 3, 2012


Hi Peter

Can you comment on the strong figures from the NFP.are you still expecting a sell off later in the day?