IIFT Daily Note with Peter Brown & David McWilliams

ECB today Payrolls tomorrow

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Today is about Europe and the ECB lending and deposit rates. A 1/4% cut in the lending rate is expected and priced in. What might happen is a cut in the deposit rate. This is the rate that the ECB pays to banks that deposit excess monies with it overnight. Presently it is at 1/4% and a reduction to zero is possible. This is to ecourage banks to lend into the economy instead of hoarding cash. Unlikely a cut that small with make a big difference, but these things can be about sentiment.

Overall the mood in Europe has changed over the last week. We can put away the doomsday machines for the summer I think, and look towards some rallies (Bonds and Equities). Todays moves will be as predicted so there will be little in the way of volatility. That should come tomorrow when we get the Non Farm Payrolls. (more about that tomorrow)

Ranges for today 1.2545  1.2510 . A rate cut should lead to a small bounce followed by selling.

S&P 1370  1362  should hold ahead of tomorrow.

 

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