IIFT Daily Note with Peter Brown

ECB today

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Market will be dominated by Mr Draghi today. I do not expect anything on the interest rate decision. We are looking toward the press conference. He is torn between stimulus measures for the Euro Zone as a whole and the German position which probably needs the exact opposite. This theme will dominate for 2014. The divergence between Germany and the rest is widening and it is where the stresses in the Euro Zone will arise. So his tone about inflation expectations is the key.

Action will be on the Euro and the DAX. In the US we have unemployment figures ahead of tomorrows NFP. I like the equity market although it may range for a while. More about the NFP tomorrow.

Today will be choppy mainly in Europe. Do not think there is enough in the ECB press conference to make the market go wild. Euro is the vulnerable product (to the downside) if Draghi surprises.

Levels today are  Euro 1.3650  1.3550  S&P (MAR) 1835  1825  Wall St (DFB) 16500  16400

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