IIFT Daily Note with Peter Brown

Focus is on the Euro and the 10th March.

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Good Morning

A bit of a flat day yesterday with the main focus on FX. The Euro is sliding and quite a bit. We had poor CPI data yesterday across the Eurozone. Mario will have to do something the question is, will it be enough to keep this market from melting down. How low can it get before the 10th March and the much anticipated Draghi? Well 1.0700 looks good support, so down there is a possibility.

The indices are calming down, famous last words, but in reality once the oil price is above $30 they have nowhere to go. So expect more range trading even if it is a wide range. China is having a reasonable session so the bias could be towards the upside on open. We have US ISM out later and that is a big indicator. Not a straddle but certainly a market mover.

Really everything is on hold until the 10th so in the meantime sell the Euro on rallies and range trade the indices.

DAX fade ok today.

 

On the calendar today:

German Manufacturing @ 8.50am

US ISM @ 3.00pm

 

ttp://www.iift.ie/economic-calendar/

Comments and questions to pbrown@iift.ie

 

DAY TRADING COMMENTARY

S&P (Cash/DFB)

We are starting to see levels repeat themselves, that is good. The market is certainly settling down. Swing trade support or resistance today but watch out for the ISM later.

Conditions: Hurricane Resistance: 1,940 Support: 1,923

Wall St (DFB)

More or less the same levels as yesterday.

Conditions: Hurricane Resistance: 16,680 Support: 16,445

DAX (DFB)

Again very similar levels to yesterday. Swing trade off support or resistance..

Conditions: Hurricane Resistance: 9,515 Support: 9,335

FTSE 100 (DFB)

 Range bound unless the international sentiments drives it. Good for swing trading due to the calm nature of the moves.

Conditions: Choppy Resistance: 6,105 Support: 6,030

EUR/USD (DFB)

 This is where all the action is. Suddenly the focus has turned to FX and this Euro is under pressure. Sell on any bounce. We have also moved or stop to break even on the EUR/GBP sell.

Conditions: Choppy Resistance: 1.0900 Support: 1.0840

USD/JPY (DFB)

I cannot get this one to settle down, completely directionless at present and the range is too wide.

Conditions: Choppy Resistance: 113.50 Support: 111.80

AUD/USD (DFB)

No Aussie rate cut last night so the Aussie bounced. Still range bound however. Good for the day traders.

Conditions: Choppy Resistance: .7170 Support: .7110

GOLD (DFB)

 Gold is directionless like the dollar. The day trading range is below but again watch for the ISM.

 Conditions: Choppy Resistance: 1248 Support: 1234

SILVER (DFB)

An interesting break lower in the silver price on Friday, tripped by the stronger dollar. Yet it has not recovered this morning. I will watch this one, if we get towards 14.00 we will set a strategic buy.

Conditions: Calm Resistance: 15.00 Support: 14.00

 

STRATEGIC TRADES (Trade duration: DAYS TO WEEKS)

Moved stop loss

Sell EUR/GBP @ .7920 Stop @ 7920 T/P @ .7625

I think the eu/usd is going to fall to 1.0900 and GBP/USD is overdone to the downside and should bounce to 1.4300 ( 1.0900/1.4300 = .7625)

 

EQUITY TRADES (Trade duration: WEEKS TO MONTHS)

 LIVE Trades:

Royal Dutch Shell PLC A (LSE) Jun 16

Average Long Position @ 1450 with SLO at 1390

the target is a return to 2000 or £20

– SLOs will be adjusted upwards every so often if the trade is going well to manage to an increasingly favourable R/R level.

-the stock pays a large dividend circa 9% which spread traders will benefit 90% of.

 

Moved stop to 870

Babcock  Bought @ 890 S/L 870 T/P 1100

We’ve bought some Babcock International

Our good friend Bernard Donaghey from up North was in touch with us on Feb 4 about Babcock.  It’s a story we like – the company is well embedded in servicing big industries and has strong income growth.  Like a lot of stocks it got a pasting in January but the technicals look really good now.

We are in at 890 profit order 1100.

 

 

 

 

 

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