IIFT Daily Note with Peter Brown

FOMC and possible QE3

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Today we await the Fed and the prospect of QE3. This is a pivotal point for the market and will likely determine the trend for the near term. Prospects are 70/30 in favour but as ever the devil is in the detail.

Yesterday we got the ESM vote and this was positive for the Euro. Along with the pro Euro Dutch election victory overnight the Euro is now stable into the medium term. If we get QE on top we are going to 1.3450 area in the comming weeks.

S&P should test 1445/50 and Gold to 1800

If Bernanke dissapoints we will reverse sharply  Euro 1.2750  S&P 1386  Gold 1650

So the game is massive. Euro is overbought at these levels and untill the 4 hour charts correct we should be limited to 1.2935 on the upside. 1.2880 on the downside.

S&P 1440  1434  and Gold 1725  1745

Hard to take a position ahead as we will see the same volatility when he speaks as happened over the ESM vote yesterday.

It’s a wait and see, there will be plenty to go for after.

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