IIFT Daily Note with Peter Brown

Janet Yellen is a dove

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Fantastic rally spurred by the Greek deal and Janet Yellen. Is there anything to hold this rally back , as I said I think the first DAX move to 11,800 area will happen quite fast and we hit 11,200 yesterday. We won’t go up in a straight line but we haven’t even started the QE printing yet! Markets are pretty defined right now, stocks are good and FX is ranging with a bias towards a stronger dollar. Unless something emerges from left field I cannot see any other scenario.

So buy the dips on the indices, any index really,  and trade the FX ranges from the dollar buy side. Technical Analysis levels are going to be hard for indices because of the fresh highs but very defined for the FX markets.

Dollar a little weaker overnight and this has helped gold to rally.

Nothing in the way of news so a DAX fade trade should be on to start the day. I would expect a quiet sort of day today.


Latest Trading Strategies:

Dax Fade Trade.

This trade is working really well, mainly because there is no big news story to make the first DAX move a big one. Some days the trade is only worth 20/50 points but it is happening frequently. Good way to make money in a quiet market.

We have noticed that after the initial 8am market move the DAX is reversing that move on a consistence basis. Look to fade the initial market move either higher or lower after the first 15/30 minutes. Unlikely to work on days where there is a big story in the market (rarely at present) or where my condition call is Hurricane. Trade is worth 40/80 points.


Dow/S&P Gap play from below.

A downside gap occurs when we have bad news in Asia or Europe so we are not getting many at present. However if one does present itself the chances of success are very high.

The gap play has a high success rate when traded from a down gap. Look to set trades between 11.30am to 12.30pm. Be careful if there are major news releases in from the US at 1.30pm. Market may wait until then to start the move. If the gap close has not completed by 3.30pm square up.


Straddle Trade.

I am looking to use the straddle trade technique for the next few months. I think the market conditions are perfect for this technique. I will recommend trying the straddle on various economic releases some in unusual products. Remember 20 point stops are the norm although on some of the products I may recommend more. I am hoping for feed-back from other traders who are using this technique. I will update the strategy from the calendar each day.



Wall St (DFB)

Janet Yellen is up again today but do not expect anything more from her. She is a dove and has proved that yesterday. Market may be a little over extended but the trend is up, Buy on dips.



Conditions: Choppy Resistance: 18,260 Support: 18,130



S&P Mar Future

As above


Conditions: Choppy Resistance: 2,118 Support: 2,106




W may be  alittle high to start but the trend is solid and up. 11,800 here we come


Conditions: Choppy Resistance: 11,270 Support: 11,180



FTSE 100 (DFB)

New all-time high. Like all other markets it is a buy on dips.


Conditions: Choppy Resistance: 6,970 Support: 6,935




Support is holding very well at 1.13   Sell on rallies above 1.14


Conditions: Choppy Resistance: 1.1425 Support: 1.1300




Dollar a little weaker on Janet. Buy at the bottom of the range for a strategic play, if we reach there.


Conditions: Calm Resistance: 120.00 Support: 117.00




Higher on a weak dollar and some RBA comments. A sell if we get towards the top of the range at .80


Conditions: Choppy Resistance: ..8000 Support: .7630




I think gold is sidelined in and around this level. No trades here for a while unless we extend to the downside where is may get too cheap. First level to watch is 1180. We bounced overnight on the weak dollar but still the value is the buy on a dip lower.


Conditions: Choppy Resistance: 1225 Support: 1180




Running up and down with gold. No need to jump in yet, let the market find a floor there will be a trade there. That floor may come as Gold hits 1180.


Conditions: Choppy Resistance: 16.50 Support: 16.00



Market Conditions

Potential Moves:

  • Calm = 20/50 pts
  • Choppy = 60/80 pts
  • Hurricane = 100+ pts

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