IIFT Daily Note with Peter Brown

Like the US, not so hot on Europe

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:58 am  |  Topic:  |  Comments: 2
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Great day for the S&P yesterday. Might get boring but this market is just a buy on any dips. We are close to 1500 on the cash market and I think it will be easy for the market to take out that target. No sign of fiscal cliff concerns so make hay while the sun shines. Good stats from big cap stocks helps. Today after 9pm we get Apple reporting, be careful with that one. Bad news there will cause a correction which can be bought into. The Zero interest rate situation dominates the market.

In Europe I am not so confident. Low growth and Cyprus are providing a back drop where the Euro could correct dramatically against the US dollar. 1.3260 is the major support. Euro is a sell on rallies.

Today 1.3375   1.3260  S&P  1482  1492


Noah Walsh

January 23, 2013


what are your thoughts on the year ahead regarding volatility. On the macro front do you anticipate another year of high volatility on the majors with a rake of large daily movements or has a lot of the steam been released out of the international scene in 2012? My own trading is all intraday based so quite, flat lining periods dont do me any favours..!
What would be your top 3 or 4 non correlated instruments that you would favour in terms of volatility/intraday?
Do you believe the Eurozone has now got itself on track or are there more big banana skins ahead?

    Elva Burns

    January 23, 2013


    Hi Noah,
    The market will have periods of high volatility. Fiscal Cliff and Cyprus are two. My macro views for the year are simple. I like the US and the S&P for the growth story but more so the low interest rate dynamic. On FX we can have a big year, fundamentally this race to devalue will have some interesting plays.
    I like the dollar,Think the Euro and GBp are overvalued. JPY also, although a lot of the move has taken place so a correction is needed. We may see 100.

    On trading style you do not need big moves to make money. If we get tight like the Eur/Usd at moment , Jobbing is a good strategy in tight markets but dangerous and fruitless in trending markets.When jobbing use bigger stake size use the intra day technicals. Take profits quickly but do not freeze into a loss.We are having really good success using that strategy here on the Advance d Diploma.

    Hope this helps