IIFT Daily Note with Peter Brown

Market bounces

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:45 am  |  Topic:
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Despite the poor GDP figures from the US the market put in a sustained rally yesterday.(more QE?) 200 plus points. This followed through into Asia overnight and the market looks for a positive start this morning. This bounce will be short lived, there is too much negativity around. The Italian derivative story is important although we are unlikely to get much detail. Losses have mounted on the back of the bond market sell off. Who is holding or hiding those losses is making the market nervous. Despite the rally it will only take a rumor to head this market lower again. I do not think 1560 is the low of the S&P and over the next few months we are in for a turbulent ride.

Today wait and see if we continue the rally. We may gain another 100 points up to 1610 area. I feel this market is a sell either way. If we fail to make progress above 1600 that may be the top.

Euro I think, is going a lot lower. Any rally is a sell.  1.3080  1.3050   support is at 1.2980   Watch the DAX this morning to see if there is any reaction to the Italian story.

 

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