IIFT Daily Note with Peter Brown & David McWilliams

Still looking for the bottom.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:42 am  |  Topic:
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IIFT 2

Good Morning

We are still trying to find a floor to these markets and indeed the price action can look a little scary. Oil is still the driver but rumours and selling of bank stocks certainly contribute to the panic. We are 65/35 on this being a correction and a Continue Reading →

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Dithering Janet, a poor performance.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:42 am  |  Topic:  |  Comments: 3
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IIFT 2

Good Morning

Yesterday and today is all about Janet. She sea-sawed yesterday between US growth and the international outlook. In the end the take out was that the worries about global growth won out and the dollar got killed. It is unlikely we will see a rate rise this side Continue Reading →

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Janet’s test

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:35 am  |  Topic:
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IIFT 2

Good Morning

Today all eyes are on Janet Yellen. 3pm sees her semi-annual testimony to congress but from 1.30pm a text version of her testimony and report is due so this could bring some volatility in the afternoon. It is likely she will mention how the Fed needs to diverge with Continue Reading →

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Deutche Bank causing worry this morning.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:44 am  |  Topic:
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IIFT 2

Good Morning

Well despite the Chinese market being closed and no data releases out, the market yesterday got itself into very bad mood. Driven by sentiment really and this morning we start with the Japanese 10 year bond going minus for the first time and speculation that Deutche Bank need Continue Reading →

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Chinese New Year

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:38 am  |  Topic:
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test2

Good Morning

Good to be back and many thanks to Niall for the great work last week. We start knowing it is Chinese New Year and the Chinese market will be closed all week. That makes things a bit easier; we can concentrate on the oil price. On Wednesday Janet Continue Reading →

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Packing up the Flip-Flops

Posted by:  |  Time: 8:00 am  |  Topic:
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IIFT 2

Good Morning All,

Our good friend Peter Brown will be packing up his flop-flops and tanning lotion shortly to head back to the greener pastures of home. On his return he will have a tricky job on his hands trying to find the green from the markets. If we look Continue Reading →

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Risk On -> Risk Off -> Risk Off -> Risk On -> Risk On

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:58 am  |  Topic:  |  Comments: 2
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IIFT 2

Good Morning All,

Wow, a fascinating day in the world markets yesterday and all week. We started the week with markets breaking higher and looking bullish before Oil prices dipped again and dragged everything down again on Tuesday. Yesterday markets went a bit nuts with Indices in an extreme sell Continue Reading →

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Young Bear to replace the Old Bull?

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:44 am  |  Topic:  |  Comments: 3
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IIFT 2

Good Morning All,

Long term Daily Note readers will know from years gone by that it is tradition for Peter to miss some very significant weeks in the financial markets. As if the world knows Peter’s holiday plans and waits. Nothing of major significance has occurred just yet but it is Continue Reading →

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Stormy Weather, Calmer Markets

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:54 am  |  Topic:
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IIFT 2

Good Morning All,

Looking out the windows yesterday, many of us would have seen Storm Henry bring some more wild weather across the country. While we looked into the windows on our computer screens we could see choppy markets but much calmer than we have had in recent weeks.

There Continue Reading →

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Dow and S&P neck and neck

Posted by:  |  Time: 8:02 am  |  Topic:
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IIFT 2

Good Morning All,

I (Niall) will be looking after the IIFT Daily Note this week. Readers over the last couple of years will be well aware of Peter’s annual winter dust off of the speedos to head for warmer climates.

I will be helping you all along as I have before, discussing the main Continue Reading →

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Big move from the BOJ

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:38 am  |  Topic:  |  Comments: 1
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IIFT 2

Good Morning

Overnight we have had a major stimulus injection by the Bank of Japan. They have moved to minus interest rates for the first time. Japan have been fighting low growth, low inflation for decades, mainly due to an ageing demographic. This latest unexpected move highlights just how Continue Reading →

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Dovish comments from the FOMC, as expected.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:19 am  |  Topic:  |  Comments: 2
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Good Morning

Yesterday was all about a rally in oil early on and the Fed later. Janet recognised concerns to global growth and the indices took a dive. She did not say anything meaningful really but in this market any sort of news, if it is related to oil or Continue Reading →

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FOMC tonight the big event.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:42 am  |  Topic:
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Good Morning

We should be getting pretty used to this market by now. Oil bounces yesterday and the stock markets rally. It is very simple really. This correlation is set to last for a while yet but it will separate in time. Once the market realises oil will stabilise at Continue Reading →

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We are still trading oil.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:37 am  |  Topic:
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test2

Good Morning

Negativity has returned with gusto. Yesterday, once the oil price started to top out and fall the market turned down again. We are below $30 again this morning so the market is again in free fall. We are literally trading oil no matter what product you pick. However Continue Reading →

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Big oil bounce, have we a short term bottom?

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:39 am  |  Topic:
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test2

Good Morning

We have a bounce in oil and therefore stocks. Draghi’s commitment to more QE and accommodative policies are partly the cause. In reality nothing goes down in a straight line and we are seeing a slowdown to the selling. This should set up a good start to the Continue Reading →

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Draghi to the rescue.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:37 am  |  Topic:
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test2

Good Morning

Well we had a lot going on yesterday but in the end and overnight we have had a positive market reaction. Oil has bounced back above $30 and the more price action we get where we fall and bounce the more the market will get use to a Continue Reading →

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Crazy volatility, and Mario to come.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:44 am  |  Topic:  |  Comments: 3
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test2

Good Morning

Another stunning day in the markets and again it was all about oil. It is extremely rare that the market gets so concentrated on the one story but that is the fact now. Yesterday we had a really negative day, an enormous bounce and a sell- off overnight. Continue Reading →

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No bottom in oil yet

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:40 am  |  Topic:  |  Comments: 4
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test2

Good Morning

After a rally morning yesterday, where we bought US Crude up to $31, the Americans then thrashed the oil price. We are down at $28.75 this morning. Rumours Iran was offering cheap oil in Europe was blamed but in reality we are just trying to find the correct Continue Reading →

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Time for a rally?

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:44 am  |  Topic:
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test2

Good Morning

We had a stable day yesterday because the US was closed. Iran oil came on stream but the price held up and we are just over $30 this morning. China growth data was slightly worse than expected but the headline was the same, China market doing well also. Continue Reading →

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Iran fills the tankers and adds to oversupply.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:29 am  |  Topic:
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test2

Good Morning

We start with oil below $30 this morning. Iran sanctions being lifted, means more supply into a saturated market. As the oil price falls indices will be nervous. Is this a stock collapse? No, it is a correction. What will cause a collapse is a sustained period where Continue Reading →

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