IIFT Daily Note with Peter Brown & David McWilliams

David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 10:38 am  |  Topic:
Trading Is At Your Own Risk - Read Our Terms & Conditions

Daily Note – It’s Certainly Uncertainty

Lost and Confused SignpostSummary

  • Fed uncertainty the root of market volatility?
  • United States: Mixed data to start the month
  • Eurozone: Real economy improving at a slow pace

Good morning,

As we talked about yesterday, uncertainty of the outlook for Continue Reading →

What Do You Think? Add Your Comment

No clear direction, yet.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:35 am  |  Topic:
Trading Is At Your Own Risk - Read Our Terms & Conditions

Good Morning

Getting this market intra-day call right is proving tricky. Yesterday it looked a bit low but the market was negative for most of the day. Today looks positive so we will see. We are still in the ‘will the China slow down end the stock market multi-year rally’ Continue Reading →

What Do You Think? Add Your Comment

David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 10:33 am  |  Topic:
Trading Is At Your Own Risk - Read Our Terms & Conditions

Daily Note – Fed up with the Fed!

750x-1Summary

  • Tightening by the Fed now would be gratuitous
  • Eurozone: ECB assessing external risks
  • The Week Ahead: US employment data to the fore

Good morning,

News out that Chinese PMIs were much weaker than expected has Continue Reading →

What Do You Think? Add Your Comment

Volatile markets to continue through September.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:43 am  |  Topic:
Trading Is At Your Own Risk - Read Our Terms & Conditions

Good Morning

Well we called for a negative market yesterday but we failed to get one until nightfall. The market held in quite well until another session of Chinese selling, prompted by the ridiculous attempts by the authorities to bottom the market and the latest PMI manufacturing figures which show Continue Reading →

What Do You Think? Add Your Comment

Negative start to the week.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:42 am  |  Topic:
Trading Is At Your Own Risk - Read Our Terms & Conditions

Good Morning

After last week’s rally we open this morning on the back foot and it is all about China again. Worries about brokerages in China, basically insider trading and pressure from the authorities to buy etc. The Chinese market is very overbought still (crazy high values) and any attempt Continue Reading →

What Do You Think? Add Your Comment

David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 11:17 am  |  Topic:
Trading Is At Your Own Risk - Read Our Terms & Conditions

Daily Note – Keeping it Simple!

shutterstock_156525197Summary

  • The perils of being the smartest guy in the room!
  • A lesson in simplicity
  • United States: GDP accelerated faster than expected

Good morning,

Smart guys are the most dangerous. They are the most prone to overconfidence and Continue Reading →

What Do You Think? Add Your Comment

Still undecided

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:33 am  |  Topic:
Trading Is At Your Own Risk - Read Our Terms & Conditions

Good Morning

Well we bounced yesterday as expected. The Dow did more than the DAX and that was down to good GDP figures in the US. Doubtless if we were not worried about China the rate rise would be imminent and the dollar would be roaring. We are no nearer Continue Reading →

What Do You Think? Add Your Comment

David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 12:02 pm  |  Topic:
Trading Is At Your Own Risk - Read Our Terms & Conditions

Daily Note – Waving Stability Goodbye!

Waving Goodbye PlaneSummary

  • Forces for stability have gone out the window!
  • Where do true valuations lie?
  • Eurozone: France finally tackling its labour problems?
  • United States: Durable Goods accelerate in July

Good morning,

We are yo-yoing around and few will really Continue Reading →

What Do You Think? Add Your Comment

A short term rally in underway.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:48 am  |  Topic:
Trading Is At Your Own Risk - Read Our Terms & Conditions

Good Morning

Sentiment is a little better this morning. China central bank action and some comments from the FED about interest rates and the bulls are now on the ball. Hard to say whether we have seen the worst for a while but it certainly looks positive first thing.

Difficulty Continue Reading →

What Do You Think? Add Your Comment

David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 10:44 am  |  Topic:
Trading Is At Your Own Risk - Read Our Terms & Conditions

Daily Note – Has Globalisation peaked?

globalisationSummary

  • China easing, more volatility ahead
  • Eurozone: Where next for the Euro?
  • United States: Data supports positive growth outlook
  • Eurozone: Could the German economy be ‘topping out’?

Good morning,

Chinese equities reversed a weak open during the Asian Continue Reading →

What Do You Think? Add Your Comment

Market is poised, up or down?

Posted by:
Trading Is At Your Own Risk - Read Our Terms & Conditions

Good Morning

Yesterday we saw the Bank of China lowering rates and adding liquidity. Overnight the market has held in quite well and as I write China is up 3.5%.

The US markets were a different story. We got the intra-day rally but there was a blood bath into close. Continue Reading →

What Do You Think? Add Your Comment

David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 10:41 am  |  Topic:
Trading Is At Your Own Risk - Read Our Terms & Conditions

Daily Note – Death, Taxes & Margin Calls

blackmondaySummary

  • The unravelling of the QE era
  • Global equities getting hammered
  • All eyes turn to Jackson Hole for clues

Good morning,

There are a few certainties in life, death, taxes and margin calls. Carry trades, financed Continue Reading →

What Do You Think? Add Your Comment

Are the Central banks on holidays?

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:36 am  |  Topic:
Trading Is At Your Own Risk - Read Our Terms & Conditions

Good Morning

It is not often we see a day like yesterday. I was on the phone for the first candle after the Wall St open. 750 points! 2011 was the last time we had those sorts of moves. It is now well discussed as to the reasons, Chinese growth Continue Reading →

What Do You Think? Add Your Comment

David’s Daily Note – Hold onto your seats!

Posted by:  |  Time: 10:58 am  |  Topic:
Trading Is At Your Own Risk - Read Our Terms & Conditions

Daily Note – Hold onto your seats!

article-0-0EE24E2200000578-23_468x433Summary

  • Equity sell-off continues
  • Eurozone: So why is the Euro so strong?
  • Eurozone: German Manufacturing sentiment improves
  • The Week Ahead: All eyes on the Federal Reserve

Good morning, or rather morning and hold onto your seats!

The selloffs in equity Continue Reading →

What Do You Think? Add Your Comment

We need the Central banks, again!

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:34 am  |  Topic:
Trading Is At Your Own Risk - Read Our Terms & Conditions

Good Morning

As we have said many times before these hurricane markets are not for us. The price action on Friday and overnight has been frightening frankly. In most cases we have now corrected by 10% and on the DAX by over 20%. Dollar has been clobbered as a rate Continue Reading →

What Do You Think? Add Your Comment

David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 11:18 am  |  Topic:
Trading Is At Your Own Risk - Read Our Terms & Conditions

Daily Note – China Crisis?

China Stock Market SlideSummary

  • China: Manufacturing Sentiment slows again
  • Greece: Snap election highlights risks to bailout
  • United States: Data continues to strengthen

Good Morning,

Poor market performance on Thursday spilled over to Friday’s Asia session, with Asian currencies weakening, equity markets selling Continue Reading →

What Do You Think? Add Your Comment

Correction or Crash

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:42 am  |  Topic:
Trading Is At Your Own Risk - Read Our Terms & Conditions

Good Morning

I am going for the correction argument. This market looks like a total collapse and is very dangerous to trade but we have the central banks and I expect some serious dovish comments and actions across the board to calm this market over the next month or two. Continue Reading →

What Do You Think? Add Your Comment

David’s Daily Note – Waiting for the stars to align

Posted by:  |  Time: 1:21 pm  |  Topic:
Trading Is At Your Own Risk - Read Our Terms & Conditions

Daily Note – Waiting for the stars to align

102451668-RTR4QZ8B.530x298Summary

  • FOMC lift off looms
  • Consumer prices are going nowhere!
  • United States: Muted Pricing Pressures

Good morning,

As volatility in financial markets continues unabated, particularly in Asia, last night the minutes of the July meeting of the United Continue Reading →

What Do You Think? Add Your Comment

Macro in reverse.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:32 am  |  Topic:
Trading Is At Your Own Risk - Read Our Terms & Conditions

Good Morning

Yesterday in the FOMC minutes the FED backed away from their imminent rate rise. No surprise there. There was a stunning attempt to rally late afternoon but it was thrashed really quickly. This market is scared, scared of China and the commodity sell off. Sure it is August Continue Reading →

What Do You Think? Add Your Comment

David’s Daily Note – Crisis? What Crisis?

Posted by:
Trading Is At Your Own Risk - Read Our Terms & Conditions

Daily Note – Crisis? What Crisis?

643104_700bSummary

  • Asian Financial Crisis MK 2? Not Quite!
  • Asian FX Analysis
  • United States: Better Housing Starts

Good morning,

In late October 1997, I sat in the foyer of a swanky hotel in Hong Kong right in the middle of the Asian Continue Reading →

What Do You Think? Add Your Comment