IIFT Daily Note with Peter Brown & David McWilliams

David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 12:00 pm  |  Topic:
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Panic, what panic?

ChildSummary

Markets: The Fed wants a sell-off
Monetary Policy: Working through asset prices
Risk assets: Value returning?
United States: Good economic data all round
China: Better loan demand

Good morning

Again I am writing to you from 35,000 feet. This time Continue Reading →

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Meltdown avoided

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I am not putting in levels this morning as they are too wide and of no value. The main event today is Janet Yellen at 1.30pm. Expect the market to get hyped about the possibility of not tapering QE etc. All rubbish but this market will latch onto anything.

This Continue Reading →

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David’s Daily Note – October yet again!

Posted by:  |  Time: 11:18 am  |  Topic:
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October yet again!

Traders in New York  Summary

Markets: Rout in global equities
United States: Gasoline prices a boost for consumers
United States: Retail Sales slow in September
United Kingdom: Jobless claims fall again

Good morning,

What is it about October and crashing markets?

After Continue Reading →

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We are on a knife edge.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:40 am  |  Topic:
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 Commentary:

The market went into meltdown yesterday. Why? There are many possible reasons but the liquidation of a major fund position is the most likely.

When you get continued hurricane markets we reach a point where very little spooks the market and moves are large and irrational.

This is a Continue Reading →

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David’s Daily Note – Last Minutes Count

Posted by:  |  Time: 12:18 pm  |  Topic:
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Last Minutes Count

John O'SheaSummary

John O’ Shea – Germany’s Minsky Moment
USA: Bonds look expensive, don’t believe the hype!
United States: Small business sentiment holds up
United Kingdom: CPI slows dramatically
Eurozone: More bad news

Good morning from a blurry Dusseldorf, Continue Reading →

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Still negative but I am not convinced we go much lower.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:52 am  |  Topic:
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 Commentary:

German CPI is out and is as expected. Next up is Draghi speaking at 8.00am. More volatility today as this roller coaster ride continues. Overall the mood of the market is negative and we lost more ground yesterday. At present the stock markets cannot buy a rally. Why are Continue Reading →

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David’s Daily Note – Ole, Ole, Ole, Ole!

Posted by:  |  Time: 12:12 pm  |  Topic:
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Ole, Ole, Ole, Ole!

irish-fansSummary

Group-think and Irish football
Risk assetsas QE ends
A new ‘Minsky moment’?
China: Trade data improves in September

Good morning,

As I mooch around Dusseldorf’s Old Town this morning, son in tow in his full Irish Continue Reading →

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CPI this morning and German Sentiment!

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:37 am  |  Topic:
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Commentary:

Well we are still in negative mode. We sold off yesterday morning and then tried to rally in the afternoon but failed. Then the market sold into close. So overall we are still in the correction phase. Volatility is still extreme making it hard to take any trade. This Continue Reading →

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David’s Daily Note – Germany’s Pain!

Posted by:  |  Time: 10:53 am  |  Topic:
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Germany’s Pain!

MerkelSummary

Germany struggling
Eurozone: When will the ECB release the results of the bank stress tests?
Russia: Trade balance shrinks in August
Eurozone: Italian Industrial Production rebounds in August

Good morning from the flight deck,

30,000 feet up and Continue Reading →

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Crazy week ahead.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:44 am  |  Topic:
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 Commentary:

This is probably the hardest blog I have written in five years. I have no tech levels to go on and have never been less certain on the next move in short term markets.

We start this week with very little in the way of news. However we already Continue Reading →

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David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 11:47 am  |  Topic:
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Germany vs the ECB!

Draghi-SchaeubleSummary

Draghi clashes with Schaeuble
Eurozone: German exports slump in August
United States: Weekly job claims hit a new low
Australia: Home loan demand slows

Good morning,

In the same way that the last battle in Northern Ireland Continue Reading →

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A stock meltdown

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:29 am  |  Topic:
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Commentary:

Where to start this morning. It was Draghi and his comments on the Eurozone that prompted the heavy selling but as we have said here this market was in the mood for a meltdown. Successive days of high volatility, something had to happen. It is not any single event Continue Reading →

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Markets are ballistic

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:53 am  |  Topic:
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 Commentary:

Crazy markets again yesterday. We were very bearish all day until the Fed minutes were released at 7pm. The Stock markets took off like a rocket. DOW did 300+ points from the day low. What was the market expecting the Fed to say? We knew it would be reasonably Continue Reading →

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David’s Daily Note – Turning Japanese?

Posted by:  |  Time: 1:32 pm  |  Topic:
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Turning Japanese?

JapanSummary

Japan: Foot off the pedal
Globe: IMF Cuts Global Growth
United States: Job openings increase
United Kingdom: Signs of credit tightening
Eurozone: German Industry slides

Good morning,

While the forex world was hanging on every word from Continue Reading →

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Stocks staring to look really weak.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:45 am  |  Topic:
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 Commentary:

Serious volatility again yesterday, not helped by the IMF lowering global growth forecasts, especially in Europe and Japan. Stocks got hammered a number of times and the dollar stayed offered as a result. These equity markets are close to caving in with a major fall if they don’t rally Continue Reading →

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David’s Daily Note – Zig and Zag

Posted by:  |  Time: 1:53 pm  |  Topic:
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Zig and Zag

Lightning StrikeSummary

Germany: Orders slump, recession ahead?
The Fed: Beware Zig and Zag!
United States: Stocks shaky on Q3 earnings
Australia: The RBA still making it up!

Good morning,

Is Germany heading for a recession? If so, what happens to Continue Reading →

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FX market now volatile too.

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 Commentary:

Well I read on David Mc Williams blog that he expected volatility to increase in the markets ahead of year end. We are experiencing high level of volatility in stocks and commodities and you can now add FX to the list also. We have had a large fall in Continue Reading →

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David’s Daily Note – Frugality

Posted by:  |  Time: 1:07 pm  |  Topic:
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Frugality

German ShowerSummary 

Europe: Germans share bathwater!
United States: What really moves inflation
United States: Employment accelerates
Russia: Inflation up in September
Eurozone: Final PMI suggest further weakness

Good morning,

Hope you had a good weekend. I was left with the kids Continue Reading →

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More volatility ahead.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:12 pm  |  Topic:
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 Commentary:

Friday’s good NFP data exposed the Euro once again and we lost another 100 points.Despite some respite in the dollar rally, last Friday confirmed the upward direction ahead. We are headed a lot lower on this Eur/Usd and my short term target is now 1.1800 which I expect to Continue Reading →

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David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 12:09 pm  |  Topic:
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Boxed In!

DraghiSummary

Draghi: Turning the Euro into the Lira
Eurozone: No QE in 2014 yet
United States: Mixed day for data ahead of employment report
United States: Lower gasoline to help the consumer

 

Good morning,

Although they didn’t do it yesterday, Continue Reading →

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