IIFT Daily Note with Peter Brown & David McWilliams

David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 2:18 pm  |  Topic:
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A multi speed world

DialsSummary

Global markets beginning to diverge
China: Manufacturing sentiment slows
United States: FOMC minutes suggest an increasingly hawkish board
United Kingdom: Two MPC members vote for a rate increase

 

Good day,

As we wait for Federal Reserve Continue Reading →

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Today is all about Janet and Mario

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:46 am  |  Topic:
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Commentary:

Both Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi speak today at Jackson Hole. It will be a long boring wait until 3 pm I feel and despite the chance of some irrational movements while they speak the market will be mostly unchanged when they finish. Mario will deliver his usual we Continue Reading →

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Rate rises may come sooner in the US!

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:59 am  |  Topic:
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Commentary:

FOMC minutes were the main event yesterday. Minutes showed members ready to raise rates earlier than expected. Market initially took the news badly but bounced back fairly quickly. Dollar loved the news.  Earlier we had a negative Europe to begin with and then the usual US rally. The big Continue Reading →

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Strong rally continues

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:46 am  |  Topic:
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Commentary:

Another good day on the markets in the absence of geo-political news and also buoyed by good US data. Stock markets were strong and continued their rally and at last we got some dollar strength. Everything is good in the financial world!

We are most likely building a bubble Continue Reading →

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We are back in rally mode.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:52 am  |  Topic:
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 Commentary:

You take away the bad news and the market shoots higher. That has been the trend for the past number of years and dominates this rally. Yesterday news from Ukraine was muted and in the absence of any meaningful economic data the buyers re-emerged. Volume was thin but that Continue Reading →

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UP down, up down and more to come.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:38 am  |  Topic:
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 Commentary:

Plenty of volatility but no direction. August markets are thin and a lot of traders are on holidays so we expect a certain level of volatility but this geo-political Russian/Ukraine situation is adding fuel to these moves and we are getting irrational up and down days. After Fridays spectacular Continue Reading →

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David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 12:42 pm  |  Topic:
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Is Stan the Man?

FisherSummary

Stanley Fisher’s first keynote speech
Eurozone: Economic data continues to slow
United Kingdom: Inflation report suggests 2015 for the first rate rise
United States: Small business confidence improves in July

.

Good day,

We have long talked Continue Reading →

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Europe Stalls

Posted by:  |  Time: 8:04 am  |  Topic:
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Commentary: 

We expected poor GDP figures yesterday and we were not disappointed. Both Germany and France were bad and the Eurozone as a whole is now not growing at all. Market reactions were mixed. It was a confusing day for the Euro as it traded higher on the news. Mainly Continue Reading →

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No growth in the Euro Zone

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:42 am  |  Topic:
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Commentary:

Again we got the mood right yesterday. This market is swinging in sentiment day to day and we have to remain flexible. Not a time for macro views on equity markets. After yesterday’s rally we are starting today with GDP figures out of Germany and France and they are Continue Reading →

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Market is flip-flopping.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:47 am  |  Topic:
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 Commentary:

Well we got the mood right yesterday. Market was nervous and negative. However we start this morning with a total reverse in sentiment due to the Russian’s allowing Redcross representatives on their humanitarian convey into Ukraine. This is the first piece of good news from the region in some Continue Reading →

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Rally not sustained.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:47 am  |  Topic:
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 Commentary:

At one stage yesterday afternoon I thought the market was going into a sustained rally. After Fridays significant bounce I thought we would get some follow through. However the confidence was not there. This was a major test to see if the stocks market could shrug off the geo-political Continue Reading →

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Have we reached a bottom?

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:52 am  |  Topic:
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Commentary:
Well I am back from holidays today and as is tradition the markets had a period of volatility while I was away. Many thanks to Niall for his great commentaries over the last few weeks.
Friday saw a bounce from the recent weakness without any main reason. Speculation it Continue Reading →

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David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 12:13 pm  |  Topic:
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Air Strikes

AirstrikeSummary

Eurozone: Draghi talks down the Euro again
Eurozone: Poor data weights on sentiment
Taiwan: Exports slow, some concern for global growth
United States: Corporate earnings exceed expectations once again
United States: Data still looking good

.

Good morning,

We Continue Reading →

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Psychological Warfare

Posted by:  |  Time: 8:26 am  |  Topic:
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On Monday July 28th we discussed the next step for the S&P almost reaching psychological levels, ‘2000 or not 2000?’ To the surprise of most, it was not to be 2000. An even bigger surprise to anyone on holidays for the last two weeks is that fact that 9 trading Continue Reading →

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Davd McWilliams Weekly Note for 2 Weeks

Posted by:  |  Time: 12:57 pm  |  Topic:
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Dear Subscriber,

 

Due to vacation time, the normal daily format for the David McWilliams Daily Note will be taking a brief pause for two weeks, starting Monday 11th August through to Friday 22nd August.

 

During this period I will not be publishing a Daily Note, but instead will publish Continue Reading →

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David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 11:07 am  |  Topic:
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Shifting Landscape

ISSummary

The Middle East unravelling?
United States: Trade balance improves
United Kingdom: Economic imbalances persist
Eurozone: Double whammy of poor data
Eurozone: ECB preview

.

Good morning,

With all eyes on the needless loss of young life in the latest Continue Reading →

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Bulls vs Bears

Posted by:  |  Time: 8:44 am  |  Topic:
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Last night we saw confirmation that we have buyers and sellers battling at these levels. With no big news coming out to swing one direction, in the last hour of US Trading we could clearly see a very mixed market.

 

In news we had Putin sign a decree limiting or Continue Reading →

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Size Matters?

Posted by:  |  Time: 11:22 am  |  Topic:
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Size Matters?

SizeSummary

Investment Ideas: US mid–caps worth a look?
Geo-politics: Poles stirring it up?
United States: Service sector accelerates in July
United Kingdom: Business sentiment boost in July
Eurozone: Italian business sentiment slows in July

 

 

Good morning,

Golfers Continue Reading →

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Buyer Beware!

Posted by:  |  Time: 8:22 am  |  Topic:
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Another negative day in stocks with new lows being found in most major Indices. Most support levels were cracked around 18:30 on comments from the Polish Foreign Minister warning Russia on the impact of conventional war in Europe and that Russian units are poised to pressure or invade Ukraine.

  Continue Reading →

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Plugging the Gaps

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Plugging the Gaps

JigsawSummary

Eurozone: Banco Espirito Santo gets its bailout
Turkey: Inflation accelerates in July
United States: 12 of 18 US primary dealers say Federal Reserve won’t raise interest rates before second half 2015
United Kingdom: Shadow MPC in favour of Continue Reading →

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