IIFT Daily Note with Peter Brown & David McWilliams

David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 12:34 pm  |  Topic:
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Blurred Vision

BlurSummary

US growth concerns fade
United States: Better data all round
United Kingdom: Solid Retail Sales for September
Eurozone: Better German business confidence

Good morning,

The first case of the Ebola virus has been reported in New York, the biggest city Continue Reading →

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Stress test should be a non event.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:15 am  |  Topic:
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 Commentary:

The market rallied strongly most of the day and at one stage I thought we would get close to a 17,000 Dow. The confirmation of a confirmed ebola case in New York stopped the market and we had a 100 point sell-off.

However I think most of the negativity Continue Reading →

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David’s Daily Note – The reach for yield

Posted by:  |  Time: 12:37 pm  |  Topic:
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The reach for yield

hands-moneySummary

Stocks rebound
Equities: Valuations and macro fundamentals solid?
Commodity Prices: Supply issues the killer
United States: CPI somewhat stronger than expected
China: PMI rebounds in September

Good morning,

While the bond markets might be scenting some deflation Continue Reading →

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A little more settled.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:40 am  |  Topic:
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 Commentary:

A quieter day yesterday and the top to bottom of the Dow was only 200 points. Are we settling down a bit? I hope so.

Overall the tone was positive and the markets ended higher. Dollar got a boost from CPI figures and the market started to look normal Continue Reading →

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David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 12:53 pm  |  Topic:
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ECB=QE?

Euro CashSummary

Eurozone: ECB buying corporate bonds?
Eurozone: Pressure mounts for fiscal stimulus
United States: Existing home sales rebound
United Kingdom: Public sector borrowing higher than expected

Good morning,

European equity and bond markets jumped higher on headlines that the ECB is considering Continue Reading →

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A strong rally.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:43 am  |  Topic:
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 Commentary:

Well a 300+ bounce in Wall St yesterday against a background of poor McDonalds figures. Quite a performance. Much of the fear has disappeared from the market, the hype of ebola and European meld down. Indeed it was a rumour that the ECB would be purchasing corporate bonds that Continue Reading →

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David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 11:57 am  |  Topic:
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Still Turbulence

Plane Storm 2Summary

Equities: Watch for more buybacks
Equities: US equity yield reasonable
High Yield: It’s gonna’ keep selling
Eurozone: French and Italian budgets
China: Hong Kong still dominates data

Good morning,

Spare a thought for fellow travellers this morning as the tail Continue Reading →

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Markets still undecided.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:49 am  |  Topic:
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 Commentary:

A bounce day yesterday for the Dow and S&P but not the DAX. IBM poor figures initially damaged the market but there was a 200 point rally into close. Overnight we got Chinese GDP. The figure came in at 7.3%. Slightly better than expected but the lowest read since Continue Reading →

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David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 10:39 am  |  Topic:
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Yellen as Springsteen

bruce-springsteen1Summary

US: Fanfare for the common man.
US: It’s earnings, not jobs
US: Solid data to end the week
Russia: Real wage growth slows in September
Ukraine: Agreement reached with Russia on Gas

Good morning,

After a week like last Continue Reading →

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Massive rally, can it hold?

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:42 am  |  Topic:
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 Commentary:

We have had a 400 point rally since Friday morning. Is this the end of the selling and correction? I do not think so. Earnings continue this week and the market is still very volatile. Nothing much out this morning or this afternoon so we may start a little Continue Reading →

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David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 12:00 pm  |  Topic:
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Panic, what panic?

ChildSummary

Markets: The Fed wants a sell-off
Monetary Policy: Working through asset prices
Risk assets: Value returning?
United States: Good economic data all round
China: Better loan demand

Good morning

Again I am writing to you from 35,000 feet. This time Continue Reading →

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Meltdown avoided

Posted by:
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I am not putting in levels this morning as they are too wide and of no value. The main event today is Janet Yellen at 1.30pm. Expect the market to get hyped about the possibility of not tapering QE etc. All rubbish but this market will latch onto anything.

This Continue Reading →

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David’s Daily Note – October yet again!

Posted by:  |  Time: 11:18 am  |  Topic:
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October yet again!

Traders in New York  Summary

Markets: Rout in global equities
United States: Gasoline prices a boost for consumers
United States: Retail Sales slow in September
United Kingdom: Jobless claims fall again

Good morning,

What is it about October and crashing markets?

After Continue Reading →

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We are on a knife edge.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:40 am  |  Topic:
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 Commentary:

The market went into meltdown yesterday. Why? There are many possible reasons but the liquidation of a major fund position is the most likely.

When you get continued hurricane markets we reach a point where very little spooks the market and moves are large and irrational.

This is a Continue Reading →

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David’s Daily Note – Last Minutes Count

Posted by:  |  Time: 12:18 pm  |  Topic:
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Last Minutes Count

John O'SheaSummary

John O’ Shea – Germany’s Minsky Moment
USA: Bonds look expensive, don’t believe the hype!
United States: Small business sentiment holds up
United Kingdom: CPI slows dramatically
Eurozone: More bad news

Good morning from a blurry Dusseldorf, Continue Reading →

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Still negative but I am not convinced we go much lower.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:52 am  |  Topic:
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 Commentary:

German CPI is out and is as expected. Next up is Draghi speaking at 8.00am. More volatility today as this roller coaster ride continues. Overall the mood of the market is negative and we lost more ground yesterday. At present the stock markets cannot buy a rally. Why are Continue Reading →

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David’s Daily Note – Ole, Ole, Ole, Ole!

Posted by:  |  Time: 12:12 pm  |  Topic:
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Ole, Ole, Ole, Ole!

irish-fansSummary

Group-think and Irish football
Risk assetsas QE ends
A new ‘Minsky moment’?
China: Trade data improves in September

Good morning,

As I mooch around Dusseldorf’s Old Town this morning, son in tow in his full Irish Continue Reading →

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CPI this morning and German Sentiment!

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:37 am  |  Topic:
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Commentary:

Well we are still in negative mode. We sold off yesterday morning and then tried to rally in the afternoon but failed. Then the market sold into close. So overall we are still in the correction phase. Volatility is still extreme making it hard to take any trade. This Continue Reading →

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David’s Daily Note – Germany’s Pain!

Posted by:  |  Time: 10:53 am  |  Topic:
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Germany’s Pain!

MerkelSummary

Germany struggling
Eurozone: When will the ECB release the results of the bank stress tests?
Russia: Trade balance shrinks in August
Eurozone: Italian Industrial Production rebounds in August

Good morning from the flight deck,

30,000 feet up and Continue Reading →

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Crazy week ahead.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:44 am  |  Topic:
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 Commentary:

This is probably the hardest blog I have written in five years. I have no tech levels to go on and have never been less certain on the next move in short term markets.

We start this week with very little in the way of news. However we already Continue Reading →

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