IIFT Daily Note with Peter Brown

Has oil and the indices topped out here?

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:36 am  |  Topic:
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IIFT 2

Good Morning

Now we have had a top out on the market. The rally ended and the market took a breather both on the indices and on oil. Is this the top? Well only a fool would try to guess that one but I am looking for the market to Continue Reading →

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Will this rally stall?

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:36 am  |  Topic:
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IIFT 2

Good Morning

We are in a pretty strange market to be honest. Speculation of two rate rises in the US now, June and July. The indices are roaring and the dollar is weaker. The overriding influencer this week is the oil price and we are flirting with $50. That is Continue Reading →

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What a rally!

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:33 am  |  Topic:
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IIFT 2

Good Morning

Well what a day we had yesterday. It is called an outside up day with little volume. We started with a cracking fade trade and then the market went into overdrive and did not stop. Good US data helped. It is hard to rationalise the sise of Continue Reading →

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Summer markets, but good for day traders.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:33 am  |  Topic:  |  Comments: 3
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IIFT 2

Good Morning

We start this morning following a weak Asian session. Headlines on a Chinese bailout figure spooking the market but nothing concrete. It seems this market finds it hard to rally and easy to fall. The market is very short on stories and when and whether the US raise Continue Reading →

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Dollar Up Dollar Down

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:44 am  |  Topic:
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IIFT 2

Good Morning,

Continuing from Fridays session we continue to see more quiet trading than we have seen earlier in the year. The is no major driver visible at the moment so movements are coming in from a mix of small announcements. This does not necessarily mean that a lack of Continue Reading →

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Up and down days and no direction.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:36 am  |  Topic:  |  Comments: 2
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IIFT 2

Good Morning

Not a great day yesterday, the market found some serious negative action which seems to be completely gone this morning. Oil fell yesterday and speculation of a rate rise soon in the US helped put the market is sell mode. What was surprising was how low we got. Continue Reading →

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FOMC minutes set the dollar higher.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:38 am  |  Topic:  |  Comments: 7
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IIFT 2

Good Morning

A very quiet day yesterday until the FOMC minutes that is. They were very hawkish with fed officials wanting to raise rates in June. That has set the cat amongst the pigeons. Dollar is higher and the equity markets are a bit softer. What happens now is that Continue Reading →

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Short term rally over?

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:33 am  |  Topic:  |  Comments: 2
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IIFT 2

Good Morning

Ok well we got that completely wrong yesterday. The market looked good to me but the rally was very short lived. In fact we had a real bear session in the end. What happened? Well it would seem the market is in no mood to rally and then Continue Reading →

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Market looks good

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:27 am  |  Topic:
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IIFT 2

Good Morning

The market starts the week in good mood after a decent rally yesterday and overnight. It was a pretty slow start to the day with a bank holiday in most of Europe. However the two drivers in the afternoon, Apple and Oil drove the market higher.

Again today Continue Reading →

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FX is where the money is.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:30 am  |  Topic:
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IIFT 2

Good Morning

We start the week lower from Friday nights sell off. The earnings season is over in the US and it has been particularly disappointing. The market has been on a slide for a while now. Are we in a bear market? I do not think so it is Continue Reading →

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Slightly lower but range bound still.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:36 am  |  Topic:
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IIFT 2

Good Morning

Despite it appearing quiet we have had a nasty sell off on these indices. Yesterday was an up down day in Europe but the US market was in negative mode. Apple was the main driver but an overall lack of enthusiasm was the real reason. There is now Continue Reading →

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Range bound markets all-round

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:26 am  |  Topic:
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IIFT 2

Good Morning

Two things dominated yesterday, the oil inventories caused a sharp jump (straddle trade) and poor earnings led to a fall in indices late on. This mood carried into Asia so we start soft this morning. It is clear this market has little upside potential and runs into resistance Continue Reading →

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Nothing much going on today.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:37 am  |  Topic:
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IIFT 2

Good Morning

A pretty good day all-round yesterday, indices up and the dollar stalling after a good rally. There is nothing on the economic calendar again today so we are expecting more of the same. Oil is very stable, so range bound on indices with a bias towards the upside. Continue Reading →

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Market steady, dollar rises

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:08 am  |  Topic:
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IIFT 2

Good Morning

A very interesting day all round. A bit more volatile than I thought but range bound just the same. A very nice DAX fade in the morning and the dollar held in nicely. This market is solid for the moment. Oil fell yesterday but the indices held up Continue Reading →

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Looking at a quiet day.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:22 am  |  Topic:
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IIFT 2

Good Morning

I have a theory that the NFP is now, not much of an economic release. We had a read well lower than expected and although the initial reaction was negative, the market basically ignored the read. We are creating jobs in the US and one slow figure will Continue Reading →

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NFP today. Lets hope for a big one!

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:37 am  |  Topic:  |  Comments: 3
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IIFT 2

Good Morning

We are still hanging around the bottom of recent lows on these indices. We have NFP today of course and that will be the main driver. Expect a fairly quiet market ahead of 1.30 pm but take into account the Asian markets were negative. Oil is a bit Continue Reading →

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Stocks to stablise, dollar to bounce?

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:37 am  |  Topic:
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IIFT 2

Good Morning

The equity markets continue to weaken but it is hard to see this anything more than a pull back from the rally. Strategically I do not see a story strong enough to turn the market bearish medium term, so I expect some support soon and a reversal of Continue Reading →

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Lower oil and lack of stimulus drop markets

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:24 am  |  Topic:
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IIFT 2

Good Morning

Oil is down $3 over the last few sessions. That along with the inaction from Japan have topped this market out. The question now is are we going for a big correction lower. I think it is too early for that call but the market needs to find Continue Reading →

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All the action is on the dollar.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:35 am  |  Topic:
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IIFT 2

Good Morning

It looks like we are in for a period of stock market range playing. Provided the oil price stays above $40 the index markets have nowhere to go. We are unlikely to see new highs there is not enough momentum for that and a big sell off is Continue Reading →

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Indices and dollar continue to slide.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:34 am  |  Topic:
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IIFT 2

Good Morning

A very interesting market it has to be said. The lack of action by the BOJ has certainly put the cat amongst the pigeons. It has put into question the effectiveness of QE and whether it is worth continuing. That together with low growth figures in the US Continue Reading →

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