IIFT Daily Note with Peter Brown & David McWilliams

David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 1:04 pm  |  Topic:
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Beware Greek Weddings!

greek_wedding_groom_danceSummary

Greek bond yields blowing out
Crude oil hits a four year low, what now for producers?
Eurozone: German inflation falls… again!
United States: Slowing data to finish the month

Good morning,

The funny thing about the EU crisis Continue Reading →

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Black Friday

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:40 am  |  Topic:
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 Commentary:

It is Black Friday and the western world goes mad shopping. My but we follow the herd, a marketing man’s dream. Not a big effect on the market, more important is the inflation data out at 10am. Not expecting a major surprise, expect to see the trend shown i.e. Continue Reading →

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Thanksgiving Day

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:30 am  |  Topic:
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 Commentary:

Well it is Thanksgiving Day today so this afternoon will be very quiet. Yesterday was dominated by bad US figures which weakened the dollar but failed to dent the Stock markets. We have plenty of data this morning and Draghi speaking at 11.30am. So a bit to get through Continue Reading →

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David’s Daily Note – Pontiff on the ball!

Posted by:  |  Time: 11:35 am  |  Topic:
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Pontiff on the ball!

VATICAN-POPE-SPORT-MEETING-CSISummaryThe Pope is on the ball!
USA: Better GDP, but dodgy police!
USA: House prices drive consumer confidence
Australia: Aussies talking their own book
Eurozone: French confidence improves‘‘Good morning,

Rarely do you read quotes in financial Continue Reading →

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US slowing down?

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:50 am  |  Topic:
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 Commentary:

Interesting day yesterday with US consumer confidence and other data disappointing, is the US slowing down? That would be a frightening prospect for the rest of the world which we know is struggling. More US data today so we will see if there is a follow through on the Continue Reading →

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David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 2:06 pm  |  Topic:
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America in a pickle?

obama071Summary

World: Where are the global policemen?
USA: Feeling sorry for Obama
Middle East: The impact of oil on politics
Eurozone: German confidence up

Good morning,

It is kind of tragic that in the final phase of Obama’s Continue Reading →

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Nice stable market.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:43 am  |  Topic:
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 Commentary:

A nice stable market both on indices and FX. More than likely we will see more of the same today, only US GDP out later and I do not expect a major surprise there.

So in simple terms more of the same buy indices on dips and buy the Continue Reading →

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David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 12:11 pm  |  Topic:
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6 Nations forecast

Screen Shot 2014-11-24 at 10.29.55Summary

Germany eyes Japan via China
Draghi mans up!
China: Tinkering
United States: California leads US jobs market
The Week Ahead: Eurozone CPI and bank lending

Good morning,

After that brilliant performance against the Wallabies, please allow a little Continue Reading →

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China rate cut still the main driver.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:45 am  |  Topic:
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 Commentary:

And now it is the Chinese government cutting interest rates and providing stimulus. That nearly completes the circle and means all the major economies are either doing stimulus measures or have just completed one. The market around the world rallied with the prospect of all the cash and the Continue Reading →

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Watch out for the snow effect.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:39 am  |  Topic:
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 Commentary:

Well a quiet session yesterday, except for gold which was crazy. This Swiss vote seems to have caused a lot of volatility of late and best to stay away for a while. Elsewhere the dominant feature was again the strong dollar. This morning we are near a 119 read Continue Reading →

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David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 1:12 pm  |  Topic:
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Japan’s not working

Trendy Japanese 2Summary

Will QE work for the Eurozone?
Japan: Abe postpones tax and calls snap election
United States: Producer prices jump
United Kingdom: CPI stabilises in October
Australia: Moody, worried and concerned

Good morning,

The Japanese economist Richard Koo has done Continue Reading →

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It is all about QE, Japan and Europe!

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:41 am  |  Topic:
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 Commentary:

Let’s start with the BOJ. QE is not working but in reality there is nothing else. The calling of a snap election is a ruse to copper-fasten the strategy into the future. There is a 20 year stagnation and it looks like there is at least another decade to Continue Reading →

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David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 12:44 pm  |  Topic:
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Greek Style?

Greek Plate SmashingSummary

Japan: Not sensing much change
Focus on: Greece
The EU: Is there value in Greece right now?
United States: Mixed data to start the week

Good morning,

Markets have started the week on the back-foot. JPY volatility after the Continue Reading →

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Market is nicely settled.

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 Commentary:

The markets silly reaction to the Japan GDP was reversed through trading yesterday. Dollar bounced back. Mario Draghi was speaking and he was very equity positive, QE etc.

Market is back to our dollar and equities up trend. We are in a short term range on the indices and Continue Reading →

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David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 11:16 am  |  Topic:
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Japan. Sinking Sun?

Japan PanicSummary

Japan: Recession in the East.
Growth: Who is right, Mr Bond or Mr Stock?
United States: Consumer doing well
The week ahead: FOMC to the fore

Good morning,

Japan is in recession. In the period from July-September, real Continue Reading →

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Japan back in Recession!

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:46 am  |  Topic:
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 Commentary:

Between Friday afternoon and overnight the quiet, stable markets may be over and we may return to hurricane markets akin to those seen in October.

We had a reversal of the trend on Friday afternoon and this looked like nothing more than profit taking on a strong dollar. Overnight Continue Reading →

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David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 12:15 pm  |  Topic:
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Deutscheland uber alles?

German fansSummary

Euro: Positive for once!
The US rate conundrum
United States: Jobs outlook continues to improve
United States: Dudley warning
Eurozone: German & France GDP better than expected

Good morning,

Strangely, the Eurozone – against all expectations – posted Continue Reading →

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Dollar up, indices up. simples!

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:35 am  |  Topic:
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 Commentary:

Starting today with German GDP. Came in as expected and the market likes that. I think the market was scared that some of this European data would be worse than expected. It is not but is does maintain the macro view that Europe is in trouble.

This market is Continue Reading →

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David’s Daily Note – Different Directions!

Posted by:  |  Time: 12:25 pm  |  Topic:
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Different Directions!

BD6638-001Summary

Global Economy: The Great dichotomy.
Eurozone governments need rate cuts
QE argument for Europe v strong.
United Kingdom: Real wage growth emerges
Eurozone: Industrial production slumps

Good morning,

One of the key themes of the coming months Continue Reading →

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Inflation data today.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:35 am  |  Topic:
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 Commentary:

Bit of a jump in the market late in Asia. No real reason other than some dovish comments. Overnight the interesting issue was comments from the RBA about intervention into the Aussie. They feel it is too high and should revalue lower. I have that trade and think strategically Continue Reading →

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