IIFT Daily Note with Peter Brown & David McWilliams

Get ready for a big week.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:46 am  |  Topic:
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 Commentary:

A massive week ahead for markets. First we will have the reaction to the geo-political risk in Russia/Ukraine. This situation is just deteriorating day by day. How will the market react? Secondly we have interest rate decisions on Thursday in the UK and Europe. And then we have Mario Continue Reading →

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David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 11:41 am  |  Topic:
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New Russia

UkraineSummary

Ukraine: tensions build
Eurozone: Pressure mounts on the ECB
United States: Q2 GDP revised up

 

 

Good morning,

I can’t state enough this simple fact: Russia Matters. Russia and what happens next in Ukraine affect the German supply Continue Reading →

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Geo-political tensions back on the table.

Posted by:  |  Time: 8:06 am  |  Topic:
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Commentary:

More data today in the Eurozone. Already we have had poor German data and the Euro is lower. Yesterday the Russian/Ukraine crisis came back to effect the market. Fear returned and I got stopped out on Gold. However the DAX call was good and sideways on equities was the Continue Reading →

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Taking it easy for a while.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:38 am  |  Topic:
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 Commentary:

Poor French unemployment data, a rumour of a new bond buying programme from the ECB and the Euro is higher this morning. I think we are right to be a bit cautious on our sell strategy for the time being. New have more data this morning and of course Continue Reading →

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David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 10:54 am  |  Topic:
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Wealth Effect?

CashSummary

United States: Wealth effect?
United States: Durable Goods post a record increase
China: Ahead of key data we review our stance

 

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.

Good morning,

The markets love the Fed, not because they love central bankers (although they Continue Reading →

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Anyone for a ‘bear market squeeze’

Posted by:  |  Time: 8:02 am  |  Topic:
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 Commentary:

Another usual day, stocks higher euro lower. Wall St has a double top at the all- time high and the S&P briefly breached 2000. Market continues to rally and any dips are a buy opportunity. We have come a long way so a bit of sideways trading may be Continue Reading →

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David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 10:52 am  |  Topic:
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France, a big Italy?

VieiraSummary

Eurozone: Patrick Vieira’s view
Eurozone: Draghi plays politics
Israel: You want to understand Stanley Fischer?
United States: New Home Sales hold steady

 

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Good morning,

Today I would like to quote that great French social philosopher, Continue Reading →

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Foot on the ball.

Posted by:
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 Commentary:

Market was strong yesterday until late afternoon when we had a profit take. Not much of a surprise there as we have rallied hard for some time. Foot on the ball is probably the best way to describe it. Euro did nothing all day. Cut my short first thing Continue Reading →

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More cocaine from Janet and Mario

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:51 am  |  Topic:
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 Commentary:

Janet and Mario keep the trend I tact. Buy stocks and the dollar. Janet proved she is a dove and friendly to the markets. Yes rates will rise but not this year and that is enough to keep the rally in-tact. There is nothing else on the horizon to Continue Reading →

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David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 2:18 pm  |  Topic:
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A multi speed world

DialsSummary

Global markets beginning to diverge
China: Manufacturing sentiment slows
United States: FOMC minutes suggest an increasingly hawkish board
United Kingdom: Two MPC members vote for a rate increase

 

Good day,

As we wait for Federal Reserve Continue Reading →

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Today is all about Janet and Mario

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:46 am  |  Topic:
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Commentary:

Both Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi speak today at Jackson Hole. It will be a long boring wait until 3 pm I feel and despite the chance of some irrational movements while they speak the market will be mostly unchanged when they finish. Mario will deliver his usual we Continue Reading →

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Rate rises may come sooner in the US!

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:59 am  |  Topic:
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Commentary:

FOMC minutes were the main event yesterday. Minutes showed members ready to raise rates earlier than expected. Market initially took the news badly but bounced back fairly quickly. Dollar loved the news.  Earlier we had a negative Europe to begin with and then the usual US rally. The big Continue Reading →

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Strong rally continues

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:46 am  |  Topic:
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Commentary:

Another good day on the markets in the absence of geo-political news and also buoyed by good US data. Stock markets were strong and continued their rally and at last we got some dollar strength. Everything is good in the financial world!

We are most likely building a bubble Continue Reading →

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We are back in rally mode.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:52 am  |  Topic:
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 Commentary:

You take away the bad news and the market shoots higher. That has been the trend for the past number of years and dominates this rally. Yesterday news from Ukraine was muted and in the absence of any meaningful economic data the buyers re-emerged. Volume was thin but that Continue Reading →

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UP down, up down and more to come.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:38 am  |  Topic:
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 Commentary:

Plenty of volatility but no direction. August markets are thin and a lot of traders are on holidays so we expect a certain level of volatility but this geo-political Russian/Ukraine situation is adding fuel to these moves and we are getting irrational up and down days. After Fridays spectacular Continue Reading →

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David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 12:42 pm  |  Topic:
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Is Stan the Man?

FisherSummary

Stanley Fisher’s first keynote speech
Eurozone: Economic data continues to slow
United Kingdom: Inflation report suggests 2015 for the first rate rise
United States: Small business confidence improves in July

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Good day,

We have long talked Continue Reading →

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Europe Stalls

Posted by:  |  Time: 8:04 am  |  Topic:
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Commentary: 

We expected poor GDP figures yesterday and we were not disappointed. Both Germany and France were bad and the Eurozone as a whole is now not growing at all. Market reactions were mixed. It was a confusing day for the Euro as it traded higher on the news. Mainly Continue Reading →

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No growth in the Euro Zone

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:42 am  |  Topic:
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Commentary:

Again we got the mood right yesterday. This market is swinging in sentiment day to day and we have to remain flexible. Not a time for macro views on equity markets. After yesterday’s rally we are starting today with GDP figures out of Germany and France and they are Continue Reading →

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Market is flip-flopping.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:47 am  |  Topic:
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 Commentary:

Well we got the mood right yesterday. Market was nervous and negative. However we start this morning with a total reverse in sentiment due to the Russian’s allowing Redcross representatives on their humanitarian convey into Ukraine. This is the first piece of good news from the region in some Continue Reading →

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Rally not sustained.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:47 am  |  Topic:
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 Commentary:

At one stage yesterday afternoon I thought the market was going into a sustained rally. After Fridays significant bounce I thought we would get some follow through. However the confidence was not there. This was a major test to see if the stocks market could shrug off the geo-political Continue Reading →

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