IIFT Daily Note with Peter Brown & David McWilliams

David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 12:03 pm  |  Topic:
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Gotta love the Japs

JAPANESE-HIPSTERS1Summary

QE to infinity!
BOJ goes for it
Eurozone: German CPI heads lower again
United States: Upside surprise to Q3 GDP

Good morning,

My God, it’s all going on now! Halloween is full of surprises and the Bank of Continue Reading →

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More QE in Japan, market overreacts

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:37 am  |  Topic:
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 Commentary:

A good DAX fade trade and a great gap play highlighted yesterday’s trading. This could be the trend for some time to come as we see a negative Europe and a positive US.

However last night the Bank of Japan stunned the market with a further programme of QE. Continue Reading →

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David’s Daily Note – Changing Gear

Posted by:  |  Time: 11:30 am  |  Topic:
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Changing Gear

American Muscle CarsSummary

The Fed: Changes gear
United Kingdom: Rate expectations dimmed
Eurozone: Easing in financial conditions?

Good morning,

The Fed put its foot on the accelerator yesterday, but then thought better of it. However, the sense that it may Continue Reading →

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The dollar is back.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:50 am  |  Topic:
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 Commentary:

The dollar was higher against the yen and the euro in Asia trade Thursday, as a slightly more hawkish tone in U.S. Federal Open Market Committee statement reaffirmed that the Fed was moving toward a tighter monetary policy more quickly than its peers. We have now ended QE in Continue Reading →

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David’s Daily Note – The End of an Era?

Posted by:  |  Time: 12:29 pm  |  Topic:
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The End of an Era?

obama-waving-goodbyeSummary

The Fed: QE ends with a whimper
The Fed: Steady as she goes.
United States: Consumer confidence at a 7 year high
United States: Reasonable house sales & not much need for hysterics

Good morning,

Despite Continue Reading →

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Good strong recovery.

Posted by:  |  Time: 6:23 am  |  Topic:
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Commentary:

Quite amazing, what was all that selling about on Monday.The DAX was back to the same level at close lat night. We have also arrived back at 17,000 on the DOW. The low interest rate, nowhere else to invest argument has won out again. I do not think  we will be visiting the year highs soon but who knows. A foot on the ball for today while we are waiting for the fed tonight.

At 6pm the fed announces the end to QE. It is widely expected and anything else would be a major shock. Comments on future guidance will be interesting but mainly for the bond market and the dollar.

All in all it should be a consolidation day, both on equities and foreign exchange.

We have struggled with two failed DAX fade trades in a  row. If we fail this morning I will re-evaluate the strategy. I think it is unlikely however we are gong to continue with the DAX volatility so early.

Gold looks range bound so  some trade coming there.

 

Latest Trading Strategies: 

  1. Dax Fade.

This trade is working really well, mainly because there is no big news story to make the first DAX move a big one. Some days the trade is only worth 20/50 points but it is happening frequently. Good way to make money in a quiet market.

We have noticed that after the initial 8am market move the DAX is reversing that move on a consistence basis. Look to fade the initial market move either higher or lower after the first 15/30 minutes. Unlikely to work on days where there is a big story in the market (rarely at present) or where my condition call is Hurricane. Trade is worth 40/80 points.

 

  1. Dow/S&P Gap play from below.

A downside gap occurs when we have bad news in Asia or Europe so we are not getting many at present. However if one does present itself the chances of success are very high.

The gap play has a high success rate when traded from a down gap. Look to set trades between 11.30am to 12.30pm. Be careful if there are major news releases in from the US at 1.30pm. Market may wait until then to start the move. If the gap close has not completed by 3.30pm square up.

  1. Looking for a major depreciation in the Eur/USD. Towards 1.1800 eventually. I am now selling and cashing as a strategy. I will not buy the pair anytime throughout this play.

 

 

Wall St (DFB)

.As i said above we are now back at 17,000. I cannot give you any meaningful  tech levels as we are blowing through them all. Market looks solid and I hope we settle down soon. In the meantime we are still in hurricane conditions.

 

Conditions: Hurricane Resistance: 17,100 Support: 16,900

 

 

S&P Dec Future

.We are using round numbers for tech levels. The 1980 overnight worked. So we go with 1990 today. Be careful at 6pm market might overreact.

 

Conditions: Hurricane Resistance: 1990 Support: 1970

 

 

DAX (DFB)

What can I say about the last few days. 300 down and then up. It is a long time since I have seen that if ever. It is go with the flow but hopefully quieter today.

 

Conditions: Continue Reading →

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David’s Daily Note – No Stress?

Posted by:  |  Time: 10:50 am  |  Topic:
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No Stress?

Stressed Banker 2Summary

Eurozone: Digesting the bank stress test
Eurozone: Greeks playing games
Ukraine: Vote more trouble with Russia
United States: Mixed data to start the week
United Kingdom: Q3 GDP in line with expectations

Good morning,

The main headline from Continue Reading →

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More volatility to come.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:49 am  |  Topic:
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 Commentary:

Looking at yesterday’s price action and that massive fall on the DAX , it looks a bit overdone. The bank stress tests were not that bad and the move lower  on the euro as well,looks more to do with overall sentiment than anything. We start our week with high Continue Reading →

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David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 12:34 pm  |  Topic:
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Blurred Vision

BlurSummary

US growth concerns fade
United States: Better data all round
United Kingdom: Solid Retail Sales for September
Eurozone: Better German business confidence

Good morning,

The first case of the Ebola virus has been reported in New York, the biggest city Continue Reading →

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Stress test should be a non event.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:15 am  |  Topic:
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 Commentary:

The market rallied strongly most of the day and at one stage I thought we would get close to a 17,000 Dow. The confirmation of a confirmed ebola case in New York stopped the market and we had a 100 point sell-off.

However I think most of the negativity Continue Reading →

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David’s Daily Note – The reach for yield

Posted by:  |  Time: 12:37 pm  |  Topic:
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The reach for yield

hands-moneySummary

Stocks rebound
Equities: Valuations and macro fundamentals solid?
Commodity Prices: Supply issues the killer
United States: CPI somewhat stronger than expected
China: PMI rebounds in September

Good morning,

While the bond markets might be scenting some deflation Continue Reading →

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A little more settled.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:40 am  |  Topic:
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 Commentary:

A quieter day yesterday and the top to bottom of the Dow was only 200 points. Are we settling down a bit? I hope so.

Overall the tone was positive and the markets ended higher. Dollar got a boost from CPI figures and the market started to look normal Continue Reading →

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David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 12:53 pm  |  Topic:
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ECB=QE?

Euro CashSummary

Eurozone: ECB buying corporate bonds?
Eurozone: Pressure mounts for fiscal stimulus
United States: Existing home sales rebound
United Kingdom: Public sector borrowing higher than expected

Good morning,

European equity and bond markets jumped higher on headlines that the ECB is considering Continue Reading →

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A strong rally.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:43 am  |  Topic:
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 Commentary:

Well a 300+ bounce in Wall St yesterday against a background of poor McDonalds figures. Quite a performance. Much of the fear has disappeared from the market, the hype of ebola and European meld down. Indeed it was a rumour that the ECB would be purchasing corporate bonds that Continue Reading →

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David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 11:57 am  |  Topic:
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Still Turbulence

Plane Storm 2Summary

Equities: Watch for more buybacks
Equities: US equity yield reasonable
High Yield: It’s gonna’ keep selling
Eurozone: French and Italian budgets
China: Hong Kong still dominates data

Good morning,

Spare a thought for fellow travellers this morning as the tail Continue Reading →

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Markets still undecided.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:49 am  |  Topic:
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 Commentary:

A bounce day yesterday for the Dow and S&P but not the DAX. IBM poor figures initially damaged the market but there was a 200 point rally into close. Overnight we got Chinese GDP. The figure came in at 7.3%. Slightly better than expected but the lowest read since Continue Reading →

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David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 10:39 am  |  Topic:
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Yellen as Springsteen

bruce-springsteen1Summary

US: Fanfare for the common man.
US: It’s earnings, not jobs
US: Solid data to end the week
Russia: Real wage growth slows in September
Ukraine: Agreement reached with Russia on Gas

Good morning,

After a week like last Continue Reading →

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Massive rally, can it hold?

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:42 am  |  Topic:
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 Commentary:

We have had a 400 point rally since Friday morning. Is this the end of the selling and correction? I do not think so. Earnings continue this week and the market is still very volatile. Nothing much out this morning or this afternoon so we may start a little Continue Reading →

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David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 12:00 pm  |  Topic:
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Panic, what panic?

ChildSummary

Markets: The Fed wants a sell-off
Monetary Policy: Working through asset prices
Risk assets: Value returning?
United States: Good economic data all round
China: Better loan demand

Good morning

Again I am writing to you from 35,000 feet. This time Continue Reading →

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Meltdown avoided

Posted by:
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I am not putting in levels this morning as they are too wide and of no value. The main event today is Janet Yellen at 1.30pm. Expect the market to get hyped about the possibility of not tapering QE etc. All rubbish but this market will latch onto anything.

This Continue Reading →

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