IIFT Daily Note with Peter Brown

Market still confused.

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Based on an Asian rally the Euro markets put in a strong rally yesterday, this was followed by a 200 point up move on the S&P. The market then ran out of steam and we lost all the gains late and overnight. This puts us in confused territory this morning. We may see a soft start but for sure the outlook is uncertain.

So a tricky day ahead,it will be difficult to find the mood. Looks very much like a jobbing day without much directiom.

Dollar however is strong. I will re-state my view on Eur/Usd I think we are starting a macro movement lower. Towards 1.2000 minimum. If we break 1.2750 it will confirm the down trend. I am a seller on any bounce in this pair and will not buy on any dips for the next few months. If my view changes I will tell you but as of now I see no reason this pair should rise and every reason for a fall. It will bounce from time to time and the move lower will be slow. How you trade this is up to you.

Japan is selling into the close so the start to Europe should be weak.

 

Levels are  S&P  1673  1661  1647  1633   Euro 1.2940  1.2800  1.2750

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