IIFT Daily Note with Peter Brown

Market taking stock.

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Good Morning

Yesterday the dollar consolidated at these higher levels. We may take all of this week to cement in the gains. There is no getting away from the macro outlook for the US currency and most money will be made following that trend until year end. Expect a bit of range trading this week however

The US stock market took on a negative tone when Wall St opened. The fall was further than I expected and fell outside support levels. Overnight however we have bounced back and I suspect we are range bound although it may be a wide on

There are other minor stories, Portugal, Greece and Poor Chinese data but these are not to the fore. Stocks sideways and the dollar higher dominat

Some mutterings of a rate cut from the ECB. That kind of talk if it takes hold could lead us to pa

Dax fade should be in play this morning

 

Update: We are delighted to announce that there are now three parts to the blog:-

 

  1. DAY TRADING COMMENTARY
  2. STRATEGIC TRADES (DAYS TO WEEKS)
  3. EQUITY TRADES (WEEKS TO MONTHS)

 

The day trading commentary you will be familiar with. We have added strategic trades and Equity trades as we know many traders are not day trading and have a longer perspective. These trades come from trusted professional sources and are validated by IIFT. They will include entry points; stop loss and profit take levels. We will also include any intra-trade actions, such as stop loss adjustments etc, as the trade is in running.

It will take a little time to get up and running but be assured all these trades will undergo analysis before they are posted. I hope they will help to bring some profit but also add an insight into how other traders are thinking. Feedback will be very welcome.

 

On the calendar today:

Nothing of note

 

http://www.iift.ie/economic-calendar/

Comments and questions to pbrown@iift.ie

 

  1. DAY TRADING COMMENTARY

 

S&P (Cash/DFB)

Not quite sure why we sold off so much yesterday afternoon, may be just a delayed reaction to the NFP. I do not see a follow through however as I believe this market is range bound. Trade levels below, bias to the upside from this low level.

Conditions: Choppy Resistance: 2,092 Support: 2,067

 

 

Wall St (DFB)

As above.

Conditions: Choppy Resistance: 17,800 Support: 17,665

 

 

DAX (DFB)

This DAX is not putting in the performance I would expect given the falling Euro and the promise of more QE. At some stage soon I expect the DAX to start to rally. Buy on dips.

Conditions: Choppy Resistance: 10,965 Support: 10,785

 

 

FTSE 100 (DFB)

The strategic trade is the only play here.

Conditions: Choppy Resistance: 6,345 Support: 6,280

 

 

EUR/USD (DFB)

A bit range bound which is to be expected after such a big move. Risk is all to the downside however and a serious sell on rallies.

Conditions: Choppy Resistance: 1.0793 Support: 1.0700

 

 

USD/JPY (DFB)

Too far too quickly so a bit of a pullback, uptrend is cemented. Buy on dips.

Conditions: Choppy Resistance: 123.80 Support: 123.00

 

 

AUD/USD (DFB)

This has been a strategic sell for months. Nothing has changed sell on rallies.

Conditions: Choppy Resistance: .7075 Support: .7000

 

GOLD (DFB)

I took my profit on gold on Friday at 1190. If we bounce towards 1100 I will look to re-set the short.

Conditions: Choppy Resistance: 1100 Support: 1077

 

 

SILVER (DFB)

Silver is in a wide range. We need it lower toward 14.00 to set up a strategic long. There may be small value selling here.

Conditions: Choppy Resistance: 15.80 Support: 14.00

 

  1. STRATEGIC TRADES (Trade duration: DAYS TO WEEKS)

Sold FTSE AT 6390 S/L AT 6468 T/P AT 5990

 

  1. EQUITY TRADES (Trade duration: WEEKS TO MONTHS)

Short Unilever:

We think Unilever is looking toppy.  While clearly a good company with great brands, the share price has struggled through the year to break significantly above £30 a share.  Profit-taking, exposure to emerging markets, no great growth upside story and price action has led us to short the stock at £28.75.  SLO at £30.25 and profit order at £25.70.  R/R just shy of 2:1 but we anticipate adjusting order levels as the trade develops.

Reckitt & Benckiser:

Another solid consumer brands company that merits a look.  The firm has popular brands like Durex, Nurofen and Harpic and of course it has global presence. Recent results have been OK but we think there’s a shorting opportunity lurking.  In the summer it had a 700 point swing downwards and there’s no significant profit growth on the horizon.  Value is key with this one.  A level between £64 and £65 is where we see that value.  So, the order is on to short it at £64.64, SLO at £66.66 and profit order at £59.50 giving a decent 5:2 R/R. Order placed on Nov 4th.

 

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