IIFT Daily Note with Peter Brown

Markets recover strongly.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:51 am  |  Topic:  |  Comments: 2
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Despite Janet Yellen’s slight slip of the tongue and a market sell off, traders came back to their senses yesterday and realised rate hikes are still along way off. Taken with the fact that the Ukraine situation has been contained to a tit for tat sanction spat, the market has rallied hard.

The Ukraine issue still holds some risks, especially if the sanctions imposed on Russia start to cause some serious withdrawals from the country and it’s stocks. So far the effect has been minimal. Most likely the story will disappear and we will move on.

On to today and the market seems quiet, (although it is contract roll over day), little news so expect a calm trading day. Equity market look stable so the bias is to the upside even if we have a slight correction this morning. Confusing is the EURO. We understand why it corrected but it has failed to bounce back. There is a continuous battle between the bulls and bears on this product. At the moment the bears are in control but I do not expect that to last. I see no reason for much more downside and expect the currency to start to bounce back soon.

Levels today are :-  S&P (JUN) 1875  1860  Wall St (DFB)  16400  16275  Dax (DFB) 9345  9251 Euro 1.3800  1.3750  Gold 1325  1350


Noah Walsh

March 21, 2014


Hi Peter,
Ive been following your blog for a long time. Always most interesting and insightful. I notice over time you have moved your focus from the cash/spot market to futures. Why is this?
Also going forward do you see your comments/forecast to bring in crude? The reason I say this is because it is popular among us retail dudes and this instrument has shown itself to technically “behave” reasonably well and has wagons of liquidity plus it is pretty well tied to macro events. In saying that it sometimes confounds me as to why it sometimes doesnt even blink an eye when the weekly levels are released and the results are miles away from analysts numbers.

Peter Brown

March 21, 2014


Hi Noah,
Many thanks for your comment.
I am only giving futures levels on the S&P. We are actually trading cash products for all else and spot on FX.
We use the IG index spread trading platform, mainly due to earnings being tax free.
We give tech levels on the Future S&P contract as this is the most traded index and the market standard is the future.
As for oil. Do you mean Brent or West Texas?
My experience is that oil is untradable. Indeed I challenge our students to bring me a profitable account after one year on OIL. Nobody has come back with that yet.
The purpose of the blog is to give market direction, support and resistance levels and a daily trading volatility call so that traders can adjust to conditions.
Any other questions I am delighted to answer.