IIFT Daily Note with Peter Brown & David McWilliams

Massive pressure on Draghi

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:52 am  |  Topic:
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I presume by design, but Mr Draghi has created an enormous expectation for Thursady’s ECB meeting and conference. The huge question is can he deliver. He will need to produce something concrete and large. Bond buying is a minimum. This is not a done deal, the Bundesbank are still opposed to wholsale bond buying and the ECB as the fixer of the Euro. They think the politicians should solve it. (some chance). Remember providing cheap credit by buying bonds will not fix anything. It will calm the markets probably for a few months. This combined with the two day Fed meeting and the non farm payrolls on Friday, mean we are in for a serious rolloer coaster ride.

Any solution for the Euro Zone should weaken the Euro in the medium term. We will get a rally short term if the measures are perceived sufficient. Levels on the euro today are 1.2290  1.2250 expect tight range trading ahead of Thursday.

The S&P is different however 1387 is the top at moment 1377 support. If Thursday is good we will take out the year high at 1.4200

Small trading ahead of the major events.

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