IIFT Daily Note with Peter Brown

NFP the big event today.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:34 am  |  Topic:
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A nice clean NFP figure today. No confusion over will we taper etc. No confusion of weather effects. This figure is either going to be good or bad. We are expecting 210K. Anywhere between 225 and 185 you can go to the pud. Above 225 and the market should do 100+ points. Below 185 and expect a deeper correction. Remember overhanging this market is Ukraine and the phrase ‘Sell in May and go away’. So the bigger move will be if we get a poor figure.

Elsewhere Euro is well supported building for a test of 1.3900 I think. Gold, while the market ignores Ukraine is in risk of breaking lower through 1275. Any headlines from Ukraine will bounce it.

Conditions today are Calm/hurricane.

Levels are S&P (JUN) 1882 1872 Wall St (DFB) 16600  16530  Dax (DFB) 9650  9590 Euro 1.3890 1.3850 Gold 1300  1275

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