IIFT Daily Note with Peter Brown

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Following a choppy week we are not in for a rest today. NFP at 1.30pm might be the trigger to break out of the range for the last few days. First we need to comment on the Draghi Press conference yesterday. We expected some news on stimulus measures and got none. Has Mario been sat on by the German’s? Certainly the Spanish market took it badly and Euro shot up 100 points. The divide between what the German economy needs compared with the rest of Europe is a theme that will dominate 2014.

Today however is all about NFP. We expect 185k and  anywhere around that number and you are better off going to the pub.

Higher than 200k and the market will fall about 100 points but should then rally. Higher than 250k we may fall 200+

Lower than 170K and the market will rally, I see that continuing and start the so called ‘Santa Claus rally’.

FX is a bit strange at the moment so I would concentrate on the indices.

Levels today are:- Euro 1.3700  1.3630 1.600  S&P (DEC) 1792  1782  DOW (DFB) 15900  15800

One Comment

David

December 6, 2013

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Hi Peter

Whats your opinion on Gold, is it going to go lower to 1180 or will it range above 1210?