IIFT Daily Note with Peter Brown

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Yesterday the ECB was a bit of a damp squid. Euro did nothing in the end. The S&P was more exciting. It is earning season and the results will have to justify the present levels or the market might correct. Frankly I think we will get a mixed bag, some good some bad. Overall I think the market will hold in and the low interest rate argument will still support.

Today we have GDP in Europe at 10 am  not much there I feel. And of course NFP at 1.30pm.

Th market is expecting 195k  and the tapering issue could still dominate. The better the figure the faster the taper etc.

So below 185k market falls a bit but then rallies hard

Above 205k market bounces then falls hard.

Money is in the second trade i.e. fading the first candle. A figure around 195k it’s the pub.

Market conditions Calm this morning  Choppy this afternoon

Levels today are Euro 1.3640  1.3550  S&P (MAR) 1845  1825  Wall St (DFB) 16530  16370

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