IIFT Daily Note with Peter Brown

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Yesterday as expected Draghi did nothing in the way of stimulus, (sat on by the German agenda), so the Euro rallied as expected. Further than I thought and through important resistance at 1.3825. It would seem clear that the Euro situation will have to weaken substantially from here for action to happen. In the meantime we may hit 1.4000 on the pair.

Ukraine is sidelined and unless shots are fired the market impact will be minimal.

Today we have NFP. Really important. The last few figures were poor and the weather was blamed. This time that excuse will not wash. The 150k expectation is low so all the risk is on a higher figure. Above 175 k market to rally about 100 points and then maybe a profit take as we are so far this week. Below 135 k expect a bad reaction maybe 200 points lower. Again as we say on NFP day max loss keep to 75 points.

Conditions today are Calm morning Choppy afternoon

Levels are  S&P (MAR) 1880  1874  Wall St (DFB) 16500  16400  DAX 9600  9500  Euro 1.3800  1.3900

A big miss on NFP and the levels will not hold.


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