IIFT Daily Note with Peter Brown

Non farm payrolls day. Will it matter?

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:44 am  |  Topic:
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NFP today. We expect 160k. A figure substantially different from that expected could cause a serious move. The market is really solid and poised for an attack on 1576 over the comming weeks. It could head towards there today on a really good figure. In contrast a lot of traders are calling for a correction first and a bad figure could be the trigger for that.

Firstly the Euro took a good bounce yesterday from Draghi, reaching 1.3120 I expect a very quiet morning so the Euro is likely to range 1.3120  1.3040

On the payrolls, all the danger is on the downside. This market could profit take on a good figure and a bad one. I know that is perverse but some of the big players may take the opportunity to take profit when everyone is buying after a good NFP. So I am very wary of buying the market and I am poised for the profit take.

A figure between 150-170 market may profit take

170+ up about 100 points but be carefull later on

below 150 market may try to ignore form a while and than sell off.

A wild figure say above 200 or below 100 and expect a larger move in that direction

 

Hope that helps.

 

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