IIFT Daily Note with Peter Brown

Non farm payrolls Day

Posted by:  |  Time: 8:03 am  |  Topic:
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Big day for stats. Pmi’s out early, very important and then the NFP at 12.30.

Yesterday was mixed, good rally by the S&P into the 1420/24 resistance area. Euro had a bad day on Greece. The outlook there is dreadful. How much the market cares about Greece at this stage is debatable. But a big failure there to agree a way forward will certainly weaken the Euro. Big support is at 1.2880. The fact that the S&P and the Euro are going in opposite directions will lead to volatility.

Gold failed at 1726 and is back at 1710. I still like Gold but as usual the corrections are in the 100’s of points.

So to the NFP. we are expecting 125k. Here is how to trade it.

Between 120 and 130 go to the pub. Above 130 we should make it to 1435/37 resistance but not much higher.

All the risk is to the downside. Between 100 and 115 we should see 1408 level. Below 100 we should go through 1400.

As usual 1/2 stake size on the figure keeping something in reserve on the basis the market will try to reverse.

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