IIFT Daily Note with Peter Brown

Non Farm payrolls the big event today.

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There is a lot going on in the Fx markets . Firstly USD/JPY. Pull backs as we know can be severe but the trend on this one is the clearest one way bet in the market for years. 100 115  125 these are all possibilities. How you want to play it is up to you. You can buy the dips and cash in every 100 points or buy it and forget about it.

Eur/Usd jumped on Draghi’s comments yesterday, that they will do everything to protect the Euro. It is also supported by all the Eur/Jpy buying. This is the 7th time in a row he has rallied the Euro at his press conference. The problem is it is only talk. We have broken through the 1.2880 level and have to wait and see if there is follow through buying today. That will depend mainly on the NFP.

On that front all the danger is to the upside I feel. A good number should calm the market against the few weak figures we have had this week. A bad number means more and continued QE and low interest rates. Really any pull back here is probably a buying opportunity. Earnings releases start next week and that may be more indicitive of where this rally is going.

NFP expected at 200/210k  the trade is to buy if the market dips. Or sell if it rallies hard on a high number, which could mean less QE. The money is to go against the initial first move after it tops or bottoms out.

Euro levels are 1.2875  1.2950   S&P 1566  1546   USD/JPY buy any dip of 30/50 points.



April 5, 2013


What about the press conference in Febraury? The Euro sold off from 1.358 prior to the press conference to close below 1.34

    Peter Brown

    April 5, 2013


    Sorry guys you are right. Forgot the February one my mistake.


Jerry Spillane

April 5, 2013


7 in a row ? didnt it sell off after his February speech ?