IIFT Daily Note with Peter Brown

Nothing from FOMC and Nothing from the BOJ – wow!

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Good Morning

Well we got big price action but not in the direction that we predicted. Janet was neutral is probably the best analysis, no rate rise soon and the market loved that. The BOJ however was a big surprise. No new action so the JPY soared and all the stock markets got clobbered. This is why we wait for the detail rather than speculate prior to announcements.

Well the long USD/JPY trade is off the table and FX is going to be a bit confused for a while. I would expect the Euro will bounce towards 1.1600 on the back of FOMC indecision.

With oil up here and dovish central banks, the index markets should be well supported for a while. However we will be a bit nervous first thing this morning so be careful. The market may read the BOJ action as the start of the end of aggressive QE. I think that is premature but the market may set off down first thing. Eventually we may see new all-time highs on the DOW over the coming weeks. With a lower dollar, gold and silver are also biased to the upside.

There is nothing much on the calendar today so buy on dips on the indices. EUR/USD to rise and we will leave USD/JPY alone.

DAX fade in play if we are relatively stable at open. There is a slight chance of a sharp sell-off first thing so watch for that.

On the calendar today:.

US GDP @ 1.30pm


Anyone looking for more info on the DAX fade trade or the Straddle trades

Comments and questions to pbrown@iift.ie


Day trading picture 1

S&P (Cash/DFB)

If we did not have BOJ inaction we would be heading higher this morning on the FOMC dovish stance. I am not sure how the market will start, so sit back and see initially is best but a buy on dips eventually.

Conditions: Choppy Resistance: 2,100 Support: 2,075

Wall St (DFB)

As above, the same levels as yesterday.

Conditions: Choppy Resistance: 18,050 Support: 17,850


Levels are a bit wider just to compensate for the tricky open.

Conditions: Choppy Resistance: 10,400 Support: 10,175

FTSE 100 (DFB)

 We are a bit higher as is oil. Nothing here for now.

Conditions: Choppy Resistance: 6,360 Support: 6,250


 Euro should bounce on a dovish FED. I expected the tone to be more aggressive but Janet did not deliver. Buy on dips..

Conditions: Hurricane Resistance: 1.1410 Support: 1.1280


A big day for the JPY. I cannot sell this down here but we are not buying yet either. Sit on the fence for today. No resistance level in play.

Conditions: Choppy Resistance: 0000 Support: 107.60


Too confused to put on a strategic trade here either. I suspect we will be selling here soon but not yet.

Conditions: Choppy Resistance: .7740 Support: .7550


 I am going to buy gold here for a quick trade. The dollar is lower so we should see a test of 1300.

 Conditions: Choppy Resistance: 1270 Support: 1230


Nothing here for now.

Conditions: Calm Resistance: 17.80 Support: 16.80


Strategic trades picture1

Bought Gold @ 1255 S/L 1215  T/P no target yet.


Equity Trades picture1

LIVE Trades:

Moved stop to breakeven

 Royal Dutch Shell PLC A (LSE) Jun 16

Average Long Position @ 1450 with SLO at 1450

the target is a return to 2000 or £20

the stock pays a large dividend circa 9% which spread traders will benefit 90% of.







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