IIFT Daily Note with Peter Brown

Payrolls Day

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:49 am  |  Topic:
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Trading will be dominated by the NFP figures due at 1.30pm.

The market is expecting 166k and it will take a good figure for the market to make new highs. We have been stuck below 1506 for some time. Speculation is that the market is due correction but we may just be having a rest before moving higher. The NFP figure should provide some good direction.  Trading will only be exciting if we get a surprise i.e. above 175K or below 150k. A high figure and 1506 will be tested. A break above here should lead to 1525 over time. Below 150k and players will be tempted to take some profit on their January winnings. This move could be substantial and break through 1492 support. A figure in between, go to the pub!

On the Euro we are still heading higher and ignoring all the bad banking news. We are in an uptrend and may hit 1.4000 .Again the NFP will impact the Euro. 1.3640 looks like mild resistance  1.3540 support.

Usd/Jpy is powering ahead 92 has been breached. Most expectations are for 95 than 100 but this was expected over months. We are due a correction but there is no sign of that yet.

Finally this is Friday, if we get a trong rally there is an outside chance the market will use it as an opportunity to take some profit. So if the S&P rally stalls on a good figure just be careful of this possibility.

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