IIFT Daily Note with Peter Brown & David McWilliams

Payrolls strategy

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:44 am  |  Topic:  |  Comments: 1
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Going to be quiet this morning ahead of the payrolls figure. This is how I see it playing out. Last month was 70k and we are expecting 100k this time.

Between 90 and 110k there is no trade, head to the pub.

110 to 125 is midly bullish, you will miss the bounce which will be to about 1375. This market will sell off late as we have had a big rally recently and a figure in this range will kill prospects of QE3. Unless you are really quick off the mark this is a sell on rallies with a trade lasting into next week.

Above 125 is just a buy with target 1380 range.

70 to 90k this market is a sell, however the first inital sell off will be followed by an attempt to bounce on the QE3 theory. Sell half a position sise after the figures and keep the second half for the bounce.

Below 70kis  just a sell targeting 1308 next week.

 

 

 

 

One Comment

martin

July 6, 2012

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looks tricky