IIFT Daily Note with Peter Brown

Running out of steam?

Posted by:  |  Time: 8:02 am  |  Topic:  |  Comments: 4
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Poor GDP numbers in the US and poor retail sales in Germany. This market looks like it has run out of steam.

1506 now looks like a medium term top on the S&P. The market certainly feels less bullish and the January rally may be over. I do not expect a major correction but some sideways to lower trading over the next few sessions. Remember we have NFP on Friday, this release will be pivotal. A bad figure here will definately top out the market.

For today we are 1506  1492 on the S&P and 1.3580  1.3500/20 on the Euro.

Euro worries will come back so we have to watch for the Euro topping out also. 1506 on the S&P and 1.3480 on the Euro need to be watched closely. A break above and we will run for more topside. But these could be the highs for some time.

4 Comments

Elmarie

January 31, 2013

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Hi Peter,

1. Can you please confirm that the levels you are quoting are for the S&P Mar dailing rolling contract and the levels Sarge986.com is quoting is for dailiy rolling cash S&P, e.g. Sarge 30 Jan: “S&P 500 Levels: 1525, 1519, 1510, 1502, 1495, 1486″.
2. Is the Mar future normally trading about 40-50 points lower?

    Peter Brown

    January 31, 2013

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    Hi Elmarie,
    The levels are for the Mar Future. There is a difference of about 40-50 as you say.
    That diff. reduces up to the end of the contract in March when they will be the same.
    Than the June will start about 50/55 lower than the cash.
    We trade the future because the spread is lower on Market spreads
    The cash contract spread is lower on IG!

    Brian’s blog is based on the future but I have asked him to put in cash levels also.

    Sarge levels are for the rolling cash market.
    It is a little confusing but you will get use to it over time.

    Regards

    Peter

Jerry Spillane

February 8, 2013

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I am confused. A 50 point difference in the SP500 is around 3% ?

    Peter Brown

    February 11, 2013

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    Hi Jerry,

    When we say 50 points we mean 5 handles. 1505 1510
    Some platforms trade to the decimal place 1505.0 therefore 50 points

    peter