IIFT Daily Note with Peter Brown

Sell in May and go away?

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Market had a slow drift lower yesterday as the news from the Ukraine intensified. Attempts to date to ignore what I feel is a major market risk have been quite successful. However the traditional profit take in May combined with the outlook for civil war has finally tumbled the market.

German industrial orders posted a poor number just now, make no mistake this country is both significant and strategic. Further escalation will have damaging consequences for Germany and the Eurozone.

Little in the way of further news today so we will probably bounce a little from these lows and then we will see how spooked the market may get. Gold could be the big winner.

Tomorrow Draghi speaks. Expect nothing in the way of stimulus yet. The Ukraine may prompt that in the months ahead as growth slows but nothing this meeting.

Today conditions are Choppy

Levels are S&P (JUN) 1868 1856 DOW (DFB) 16450 16340 DAX (DFB) 9487 9370 Euro 1.3950  1.3890  Gold 1315  1305

 

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