IIFT Daily Note with Peter Brown

Stocks stall, dollar roars.

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Good Morning

A very interesting day yesterday, the stock rally stalled when Libya announce the prospect of increased oil production. Oil fell a dollar and the rallied ended. The market went sideways from there and we are at the same levels this morning. I think the stock market is now a bit confused and it will be tricky picking a direction this morning. Range bound,  in and around these levels is my best guess.

The dollar however is back! USD/JPY over 110 this morning and talk about rate rises back on the cards. That took some time for the market to caome around but I see some serious upside form here.

Silver topped out at 17.70 avoiding a stop out, just! It will be interesting if this commodity rally can resume today or is it over. That is the big question. We are at a point in oil at 42/44 is this it or will we run to 48/50. Big call and that is what will determine when this stock rally ends.

There is a bit on the calendar today but not massive market movers. The DAX fade has been redundant this week as the European session has tended to be quiet, still in play however. I expect the index markets  to be range bound today but I love the dollar.


On the calendar today:.

German manufacturing PMI @ 8.30am

EURO PMI @ 9.00 am

Canadian CPI @ 1.30 pm



Comments and questions to pbrown@iift.ie


Day trading picture 1

S&P (Cash/DFB)

Most of these indices are marked lower this morning. It is a big day. Has the market topped out? Watch the oil price closely; certainly it is not the one way bet of the last few weeks.

Conditions: Choppy Resistance: 2,103 Support: 2,077

Wall St (DFB)

As above

Conditions: Choppy Resistance: 18,100 Support: 17,880


Finally DAX is outperforming the US. I expect that to continue but I am not so certain about the direction. Expect anything today. Fade trade may kick in this morning.

Conditions: Choppy Resistance: 10,500 Support: 10,300

FTSE 100 (DFB)

 When I feel oil has topped I will sell the FTSE strategically. Not yet.

Conditions: Choppy Resistance: 6,410 Support: 6,310


Well the Euro had a bit of a bounce on Draghi but that was very short lived. We are a sell on rallies or day trading. I think the upside is very limited.

Conditions: Hurricane Resistance: 1.1365 Support: 1.1230


At last we have some sensibility on this pair. Japan offering negative loans to corporates and talk of a rate rise in the US coming back. The previous highs of 118/120 are back in play!

Conditions: Choppy Resistance: 110.20 Support: 109.05


Day trading only.

Conditions: Choppy Resistance: .7800 Support: .7700


 If the dollar is back gold is vulnerable to a downside move. I have the silver trade on board so I am not adding this one.

 Conditions: Choppy Resistance: 1270 Support: 1225


Still alive despite a close call. If the dollar rises we should go back towards 15.80. FOMC next week so that should keep the focus on rate rise talk..

Conditions: Calm Resistance: 17.75 Support: 17.00


Strategic trades picture1

Sell EUR/GBP @ .7910 S/L @ .7980  T/P @ .7750

Sell Silver @ 16.92 S/L @ 17.75 No profit target yet.


Equity Trades picture1

LIVE Trades:

Moved stop to breakeven

 Royal Dutch Shell PLC A (LSE) Jun 16

Average Long Position @ 1450 with SLO at 1450

the target is a return to 2000 or £20

the stock pays a large dividend circa 9% which spread traders will benefit 90% of.








frank fallon

April 22, 2016


What do you think about leaving silver over the weekend? Trying to get back up there again.

Peter Brown

April 22, 2016


HI Frank,

If you only have the silver trade and not the EUR/GBP you may want to cut here .

I am off setting one against the other and also USD/JPY

I think given where oil is and the fact that silver is not going up with it, means I am running it.