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The week in summary.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:37 am  |  Topic:  |  Comments: 1
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This is how I see the market at present.

1. Ukraine at present is not serious enough to drop the market.

2. A deterioration from here either militarily or on sanctions can cause turmoil.

3.Market is split between those calling for a correction and those that think sell offs are buying opportunities.

4. In boxing terms we have a split decision. But high volatility, so the moves are large.

We have no clear direction so the trading strategy is to be flexible and buy on green sell on red. Wall St seems to be the driver and the main moves are happening in that time zone. Today could be a bit crazy as we have a long weekend and stock traders have to make a call that will span four days.

Elsewhere the Euro , while been talked down by all the Eurozone members is showing plenty of strength and well supported at 1.3800.

Today should be choppy/hurricane

Levels are:-  S&P (JUN) 1856  1840  Wall St (DFB) 16430  16325 DAX (DFB) 9360  9225 Euro 1.3850  1.3800  Gold 1305  1295

Volatile is an understatement.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:47 am  |  Topic:  |  Comments: 1
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Well it is one amazing day followed by another. Market was behaving normally and rallied following good results from Coca Cola and Johnson and Johnson. We then sold off heavily following news from Ukraine that shots had been fired (normal). What happened at 6.00pm I am at a loss to explain. A 300+ point rally on the S&P and Ukraine ignored.

This market is highly volatile and in Hurricane conditions. Hundreds of points and the moves are in both directions. Today anything is possible. This market is definitely a mood trader’s strategy. (Goes green buy it etc.)

Market open looks a bit high, so probably a bit lower in the European session. Watch out for CPI at 10am. Wall St can do anything and expect severe volatility this afternoon. There is no doubt the US are not taking this Ukraine situation seriously enough. OK their exposure is not as great as Europe but Ukraine will have a global impact, when will the market realise that, I do not know. Watch DAX for mood.

Conditions today Hurricane

Levels are :- S&P (JUN) 1852  1832  Wall St (DFB) 16450  16280 Dax (DFB) 9360  9200 Euro 1.3850  1.3800  Gold 1305  1290

Extreme volatility dominates the stock markets.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:49 am  |  Topic:  |  Comments: 1
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Amazingly we had a 200 point rally yesterday, then a fall of about 200 points and then a rally at close of about 200 points. I have to rack my brain to think of a previous time I saw such volatility. Market is nervous and divided as to how deep this correction should go or are stocks a buy at this level. Yesterday the bulls won out but with Ukraine hovering in the background how stable can the markets be.

This is a tricky time for indices trading. The 15 minute candles can do 80 points. Very difficult to have stops that will not get hit and difficult to get the direction. Again today we will go with the flow, if the market is in buy mood we will buy it and vice versa. Let’s hope our stops can survive. I favour small stops in this market and I am prepared to use a few of them.

Elsewhere Draghi has had some success talking down the Euro. 1.3800 should be good support and don’t expect a sell off without some real ECB action rather than talk. Gold very volatile also, 1300 good support 1328 resistance.

Conditions Hurricane

Levels are S&P (JUN) 1832 resistance no support until 1804 Wall St (DFB) 16220  16050 DAX (DFB) 9400  9280

Wide levels but this market is not running on technicals but sentiment.

Ukraine back on the agenda.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:36 am  |  Topic:
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The correction is continuing but the situation in Ukraine is accelerating the moves. Over the weekend we have escalated and we are now looking at ultimatums, which is worrying. This is a fluid event and we have to be careful as news from that arear could effect the market at any time.

Elsewhere Mario Draghi is trying to talk down the Euro. Sorry but the only way to get the Euro lower is a stimulus package. Mario at the moment is all talk and little action.

Today technical levels will be difficult because moves are too large. This is a mood trade. This morning we are quite low and might bounce. But given how serious Ukraine is there may be little appetite for that trade. market may go straight down. DAX will be the pointer.

Today will be choppy/hurricane

Levels are :- S&P (JUN) 1817  1795  Wall St (DFB) 16100  15975  DAX (DFB) 9260  9160  Euro 1.3900  1.3800  Gold 1343  1324

Serious down day yesterday.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:21 am  |  Topic:  |  Comments: 2
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Market is now down 3.5% since this correction started last Friday. One thing for sure this is not the bottom. As we have said 5% is 1798 and

10% is 1700. These are the targets you have to have in mind. Why? Well we are just too high. market valuations due not justify because economies are just not that strong. All the cheap cash has bubbled the stock markets and we are just going through a period of re-adjustment to fundamentals. QE is ending and the supply of cheap cash is drying up.

A 10% correction looks fearful but is actually a normal market event. The world is not coming to an end, we are only taking profit.

Along with the stock correction the Dollar is getting killed. Euro at 1.3900 USD/JPy 101.50  and Gold has some bid in it.

Today trading will be Choppy/hurricane it is a Friday so the moves can be 200+ points.

Fancy some sort of bounce but will be selling into it.

Levels are S&P (JUN) 1844  1820 Wall ST (DFB) 16300  16000 is the only support DAX (JUN) 9400  9300  Euro 1.3950  1.3850 Gold 1325  1300


Tricky call today.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:57 am  |  Topic:
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Yesterday the bounce was a pretty easy call after so much selling, and capped off a great trading run since last Friday. Today is a little trickier. Market has not finished on the downside but I feel but this bounce could go a little further. So today is a 50/50 call at best. Might sit on the sidelines. We have some news due, in the Euro and US but nothing dramatic.

Best bet is to hold back for a while and gauge the mood. Market conditions Calm /Choppy

Levels today are S&P (JUN) 1870  1860 Wall St (DFB) 16470  16380 DaX (DFB) 9600  9500 Euro 1.3880  1.3830 Gold 1325  1300


Market still soft.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:43 am  |  Topic:
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Very little in the way of a bounce yesterday. Outside a 100 point recovery in the DAX but other indices remained offered. Market has agreed we are in a correction phase and the question is how big will it be. Taking the S&P as the reference 5% would be 1798.  7% would be 1760 and 10% would be 1703.

As we said yesterday the market will not move soley in one direction so days of bouncing will be normal. However the poor stats in the US have led us to believe that valuations in the stock market were too high. This is especially true in the Nasdaq were stocks were trading at an incredible 37 times earnings!

So today we have little in the way of economic releases. Market should be calm /choppy and a sell on rallies.

Levels are:- S&P (JUN) 1850  1840 Wall St (DFB) 16300  16200 DAX (DFB) 9530  9450 Euro 1.3820  1.3750 Gold 1325  1300

Watch the DAX for the mood. My guess is we should have a sideways to up day and a chance to reset shorts.

Correction underway and gathering steam.

Posted by:  |  Time: 8:04 am  |  Topic:  |  Comments: 3
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Well yesterday confirmed we are in a correction. Market has fallen 500+ points since Friday’s jobs data. 5/10% corrections are normal and healthy for markets. People take profit the market reset and we go again. Question is whether there is something more macro going on here. Certainly the froth has gone from tech stocks and there are questions over the economic recovery. We do not need to concern ourselves with that yet.

This market is in a down trend, now the question is how to play it. Expect a bounce soon. Prices do not move one direction only. We have come a long way so a 100 point bounce would be normal. However we can speculate at medium term downside targets. A 5% correction in S&P (JUN) would be 1795 and that is a good short term target. Remember the market will not be a free fall so expect bounces. This morning the market looks a bit too low starting off.

Conditions today are Choppy Levels are :- S&P (JUN) 1850  1832  Wall St (DFB) 16400 16200  DAX (DFB) 9600 9450 Euro 1.3800  1.3700

Gold 1325  1300 market is a sell on a bounce. Trend is down.

NFP not that good and Ukraine back in the headlines.

Posted by:  |  Time: 8:03 am  |  Topic:  |  Comments: 2
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Well Friday worked well. The S&P cash 1900 level was a great sell point and I squared that trade this morning. Have we hit a medium term high. I think so. We start this morning negative but I want a bounce to re-enter shorts. Gold got a great bounce of the 1280 level and as usual FX is stable. Some calling for a deep correction in stocks from here. That will depend whether the Ukraine situation gets worse. At the moment I do not see a reason for a 5% + correction, there needs to be a big story for that to happen.

Today should be fairly quiet and than a little more active when Wall St opens.

Conditions Calm/choppy Levels are S&P (JUN) 1860  1848 Wall St (DFB) 16450  16350 DAX (DFB) 9650  9545 Euro 1.3740 1.3680 Gold 1325 1280

NFP, should be interesting!

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:43 am  |  Topic:
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Yesterday Mario Draghi hinted at stimulus and this was enough to drop the Euro 50 points. The outlook for the currency pair will be determined by today’s NFP number. We are expecting 200 k, but the fact is the figure could come in anywhere, so a big miss either side is entirely possible.

Let’s look at the scenarios, The market has priced in a good figure, stocks are at highs. The possible shock is definitely on the downside with a poor figure. That will certainly upset the market. Even a 200+ number is priced in in my view so we need to look to the downside for the trade. You may try a straddle trade, it will work if we get a big miss. I favour trying to get short , if it is below 200 I will sell straight away and if it is above 200 I will look at levels to fade the bounce. I have no interest to buy today.

Everything else will be driven by the number, look out for 1900 on the cash S&P that should be a big resistance level and may be a strategic sell.

Today will be Calm this morning and Choppy/hurricane this afternoon.

Levels are S&P (JUN) 1887  1875 Wall St (DFB) 16610  16525  Dax (DFB) 9690  9580 Gold 1280  1296  Euro 1.3740  1.3650

These levels will not hold on a big NFP miss.


IMF wants Draghi to stimulate.Fat chance!

Posted by:  |  Time: 8:51 am  |  Topic:
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We have the ECB rate decision this morning and later the press conference. I have no expectation of any rate moves are talk of stimulus. I see more of the same, ‘we are keeping a close eye etc…. Euro may get a jump of 50 points or so on that out  come. On the off chance he does something new Euro will get hit hard. Very unlikely.

Otherwise it should be fairly calm with NFP tomorrow. Stocks markets were well behaved yesterday in short ranges. Bias is to the upside until NFP.

Conditions today are Choppy/Calm

Levels are S&P (JUN) 1886 1877 Wall St (DFB) 16595  16525 DAX (DFB) 9650  9600 Euro 1.3800  1.3725  Gold 1280  1300

Market looks strong. How high can we go?

Posted by:  |  Time: 8:00 am  |  Topic:
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We have had a good rally since Crimea. S&P close to all time highs. No news is always good for stocks and this is what we are experiencing. We have the NFP on Friday but this market looks like it will head higher from here. We may be a bit overbought so a small pullback is on the cards but the bias is definitely to the upside. Today we have GDP in Europe, not much of a surprise expected. Tomorrow is Draghi day. So the market should be fairly calm today with excitement building tomorrow and Friday.

Conditions Calm, Levels are S&P (JUN) 1887 1873 Wall St (DFB) 16600  16500 Dax (DFB) 9645  9545 Euro 1.3770  1.3830 Gold 1280 1300

No news is good news.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:34 am  |  Topic:
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Market put in a steady bounce yesterday on the back of no news. We know the stock market will go up on good and neutral days. It always takes bad news for fund managers to sell. We have passed the Crimea story now and the market will move on to economic releases. We have PMi’s out in Europe this morning and that will give the initial direction. Of course the big news this week will be the NFP on Friday. In the meantime trading should be fairly calm with the bias to the topside.

Expect today to be calm/choppy  Levels are S&P (JUN) 1871  1862 Wall St (DFB) 16508  16428 Dax (DFB) 9640 9540 Euro 1.3800  1.3725

Gold 1300  1280

High volatility continues

Posted by:  |  Time: 8:46 am  |  Topic:
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The interesting thing about Ukraine is we have now moved the American stance from indignation about Crimea to, if you stop there and leave the rest of Ukraine alone we are ok about it. This is very likely to mute the story and provided the Russians stay where they are everyone will move on. This is the way of politics.

We can now move on to US economic performance , which is improving although at a slow rate. Enough to stabilise this market but maybe not enough to make new highs. We are experiencing very volatile moves and this morning we have recovered Friday’s sell off. In reality we are not going anywhere fast. The DAX is probably the best performer and the biggest beneficiary from the Ukraine situation. FX is very stable and we are likely to have a sideways week until NFP figures.

Today will be calm/choppy still favour trading with the candles rather than fading moves.

Levels are S&P (JUN) 1870  1860  1850 Wall St (DFB) 16420  16320 DAX (DFB) 9645  9560 Gold 1300  1280 Euro 1.3800 1.3700

Improving indicators lower stocks.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:39 am  |  Topic:
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Better GDP and jobs date in the US have raised fears that interest rates will rise sooner than the market expected. Unlikely in my view but speculation on  interest rates drives markets crazy. We have not had to experience that for many years as rates have been close to Zero. We are a long way off a rat rise in the US (2015) and further in Europe. But you can see how stock, bond and Fx markets hype themselves when the prospect of a change is on the horizon.

That coupled with the fact that the stock markets look tired and are unable to reach new highs has caused the down moves of late. We are still getting 150+ moves which makes tech. trading tricky. I still maintain going with these moves is best this is not a market to try and fade the moves. Support points are being broken daily and a normal strategy of buying at support is not working.

Today will be Choppy and the levels are S&P (JUN) 1850  1835  Wall St (DFB) 16300  16200  DAX (DFB) 9540  9300 Euro 1.3780  1.3700

Gold 1280  support

So much for a slow down in volatility.

Posted by:  |  Time: 8:16 am  |  Topic:
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Another 200 point day on the US markets. This time caused by Obama call for tougher sanctions on Russia. It seems this market is determined to stay volatile even with little news to drive it. Today we have jobless figures and GDP in the US so expect another big day.

Elsewhere FX is trading very technically. Tight range on the Euro and other pairs. Gold testing support at 1300.

Best trading strategy is still to trade with the candles and not try to fade the market.The intra-day resistance and support levels are not working because the moves are so large. In reality we are going nowhere but the market looks determined due to these daily moves. Overall on a macro view the markets do look  tired on the topside. Every time we try to rally the sell off happens. We may be in for a deeper correction if the bulls give up.

This morning we look a bit too low and this has been a good buying point in the past. So if it turns green that’s the trade.

Conditions Choppy

Levels are S&P (JUN)  1840  1830 are supports, resistance is way up at 1860/70  Wall St (DFB) 16200 is support resistance miles away.

DAX (DFB) 9500  9380 Euro 1.3850  1.3750  Gold support at 1300 1280  resistance is at 1325

Market starting to settle?

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:49 am  |  Topic:
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Only a hundred point range on Wall St yesterday. Are we starting to see some stability to these markets. Crimea off the front pages for now and if the Russian ambition is Crimea only this story will soon disappear. We will be back to the US economic outlook which seems pretty flat. Therefore we may stay in this range for some time and the key is to establish the top and bottom levels. Certainly Euro is now in a very tight range. Hopefully over the next week we can establish the levels and provided another big story does not break we may stay around here till the summer. Economically there is definitely no macro view in these markets.

Today conditions should be Calm/Choppy

Levels are S&P (JUN) 1865  1855 Wall St (DFB) 16450  16350 Dax (DFB) 9440  9325 Euro 1.3750  1.3850  Gold 1308  1325

Market tests the downside.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:46 am  |  Topic:
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We had a downside day yesterday. based on little news it has to be said but the market still put in a 200 point fall from the highs. Crimea seems to have settled as a story and we now move on to data later in the week which will determine whether the recent spate of bad news was weather related or not.

Little to focus on macro wise and the recent ranges are set to continue, even if they are volatile. In reality we are going nowhere fast. Not enough momentum to create new highs and not enough worry to sell off consistanly.

Gold was the big mover yesterday and fell into the 13020/08 buy area. Interesting to see if the gold bulls are still around, certainly taking that trade myself. Break below 1300 would be bad.

Trading conditions today are calm/choppy some news releases due, should keep the market moving

Levels are S&P (JUN) 1855  1840  Wall St (DFB) 16375  16215 Dax (DFB) 9330  9160 Euro 1.3800  1.3880 Gold 1342  1308

Levels are very wide, best I can do. Go with the mood.

Ukraine the only big story.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:24 am  |  Topic:
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Friday night saw a big sell off from the rally. This was down to nervousness about the outcome in the Ukraine over the weekend. The situation there is still fluent and nobody knows Russia’s true agenda. This story will dominate again this week. Elsewhere we have PMI’S out in the Eurozone this morning so that should set the early mood. Otherwise the market should be stable and we may settle down a bit from the big moves of the past few weeks. Obviously increased tensions in Ukraine or a move on mainland Ukraine will upset the market.

Today should be Calm to Choppy.

Levels are S&P (JUN) 1867  1855  Wall St (DFB) 16360  16280 Dax (DFB) 9380  9270 Euro 1.3845  1.3750 Gold 1318/08  support

Markets recover strongly.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:51 am  |  Topic:  |  Comments: 2
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Despite Janet Yellen’s slight slip of the tongue and a market sell off, traders came back to their senses yesterday and realised rate hikes are still along way off. Taken with the fact that the Ukraine situation has been contained to a tit for tat sanction spat, the market has rallied hard.

The Ukraine issue still holds some risks, especially if the sanctions imposed on Russia start to cause some serious withdrawals from the country and it’s stocks. So far the effect has been minimal. Most likely the story will disappear and we will move on.

On to today and the market seems quiet, (although it is contract roll over day), little news so expect a calm trading day. Equity market look stable so the bias is to the upside even if we have a slight correction this morning. Confusing is the EURO. We understand why it corrected but it has failed to bounce back. There is a continuous battle between the bulls and bears on this product. At the moment the bears are in control but I do not expect that to last. I see no reason for much more downside and expect the currency to start to bounce back soon.

Levels today are :-  S&P (JUN) 1875  1860  Wall St (DFB)  16400  16275  Dax (DFB) 9345  9251 Euro 1.3800  1.3750  Gold 1325  1350

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