IIFT Daily Note with Peter Brown

Recent IIFT News About ‘Trading Views’


Market just turned tricky.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:34 am  |  Topic:
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A IIFT 2

Good Morning

It was a totally unexpected day yesterday. Draghi put the cat amongst the pigeons with his hawkish comments and the market, being in summer mode, went into overdrive. The Euro is up substantially and this morning looks set for more gains. Amazingly the dollar is up also against Continue Reading →

Central Bankers to the fore today.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:35 am  |  Topic:
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A IIFT 2

Good Morning

More or less as expected yesterday. The dollar is a surprise and has gained a bit of ground against the JPY. Oil has found a bit of support but it is the next move that will be key. These are summer markets and pretty typical. Today we have Continue Reading →

Market looks good, oil bouncing.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:26 am  |  Topic:
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A IIFT 2

Good Morning

News of Italian bank bailouts over the weekend is unlikely to have much impact on this market. Much more important is the bounce in the oil price. That is setting the early tone and it looks like a bull market to start.

Friday was a range day and Continue Reading →

Choppy but directionless.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:30 am  |  Topic:
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A IIFT 2

Good Morning

It was a quieter day yesterday but very much in keeping with the theme. Oil is the driver and it had a sideways day, so had the equity markets with a slight bias lower as we consolidated from the highs.

A quick word on AIB, the price launched Continue Reading →

Very quiet I suspect

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:35 am  |  Topic:
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iift-email

Good Morning

There is very little in the way of news at present so we are all watching the Oil price. Despite a bounce after the inventories data the price finished lower ion the day. That took the stock market down also. We are in a small correction phase and Continue Reading →

Oil is now the main influence

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:30 am  |  Topic:
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iift-email

Good Morning

The market has to have a driving story and yesterday oil took up that mantle. The sharp fall mid-morning stalled any stock rally and has put a medium term high on these indices. Indeed if oil falls further we could see a small correction. We are in the Continue Reading →

More of the same.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:35 am  |  Topic:  |  Comments: 1
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iift-email

Good Morning

The index markets powered ahead yesterday as did the dollar. I have to re-evaluate my opinion on the dollar in the short term as it seems it has renewed strength. The rate rise and the interest rate differential between the US and the Euro seem to be still Continue Reading →

Summer is here.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:38 am  |  Topic:
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Good Morning

This is really the start of the summer markets. Interest rate decisions are out of the way in Europe, the UK and the US. Macron is firmly in place in France and we are about to start the Brexit negotiations. Economies are growing, just and inflation is under Continue Reading →

Plenty of action

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:42 am  |  Topic:
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iift-email

Good Morning

Quite a bit going on to be honest. The big news yesterday was from the BOE and the vote moving to 5-3. That was a big surprise and bottoms out sterling for the time being. We can now speculate on a rate rise and that brings straddles into Continue Reading →

No surprises from the FED.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:31 am  |  Topic:
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iift-email

Good Morning

Well we certainly added a little volatility but little in the way of direction. Janet raised rates by .25% as widely expected but she was a bit more hawkish when it came to unwinding all the QE. She is going to start the process earlier than expected. She Continue Reading →

FOMC later today.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:36 am  |  Topic:
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A IIFT 2

Good Morning

Big day ahead with the US rate decision at 7pm. This is the last major economic decision of the summer but unlikely to be a surprise. .25% is priced in with nearly a 90% certainty. The dollar may get a short term boost but that should be it. Continue Reading →

Pretty quiet but good trading conditions.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:26 am  |  Topic:
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iift-email

Good Morning

Disappointing that the dollar fell yesterday but silver and gold fell also. So we got stopped out on the silver trade but we will continue to run gold into the rate announcement tomorrow. I think the rate increase is so priced in that the dollar will fall on Continue Reading →

Watch the Nasdaq.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:28 am  |  Topic:
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iift-email

Good Morning

There are two interesting issues this week. On Wednesday we get the US rate decision and we expect a .25% rate rise. That is priced in so I do not expect a move in the dollar or a straddle on the day. The other big issue is the Continue Reading →

Could be the biggest own goal ever.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:29 am  |  Topic:
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iift-email

Good Morning

Another election and another surprise result. Politics has certainly changed and the UK result throws the Brexit talks into mayhem. Sterling is down but has not collapsed and I do not expect it to do so. We are going to get a softer Brexit negotiation, if at all Continue Reading →

ECB the big event, election result later.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:31 am  |  Topic:
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A IIFT 2

Good Morning

It was another predictable day yesterday. If there was a surprise it was on oil and a big fall after the inventories data. The one time we decide not to straddle!

Indices held support despite a negative tone in the market and the dollar did a bit of Continue Reading →

Slow day ahead of tomorrow.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:22 am  |  Topic:  |  Comments: 3
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A IIFT 2

Good Morning

Very much as predicted yesterday a bit of a down day but the market stayed within the ranges. The levels this morning are more or less the same (DAX a bit lower) and I expect a similar day. Not so much a bias to the downside but range Continue Reading →

Looks like a down day for indices & dollar.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:38 am  |  Topic:
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A IIFT 2

Good Morning

There is a lot going on both on the dollar and the indices. Overall the dollar is fading out and the multi-year rally is ending, both against the Euro and the JPY. The debacle over Qatar is the latest but Trump is proving to be a dollar negative Continue Reading →

Wow what a rally!

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:38 am  |  Topic:
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A IIFT 2

Good Morning

What a day yesterday. Late on really but the markets exploded to the upside. Good economic data, accommodative central banks and the hunt for yield. The stock rally goes on. I would not be a seller here no matter what the NFP brings to day. We would have Continue Reading →

More of the same

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:29 am  |  Topic:
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A IIFT 2

Good Morning

Up and down day yesterday and a bit more volatility than I was expecting. There was a sharp up move in the DAX late morning and a sharp fall in the S&P in the afternoon. Trump was responsible for the afternoon move I cannot find a reason for Continue Reading →

Same again today.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:31 am  |  Topic:
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A IIFT 2

Good Morning

It was a nice choppy day yesterday with the DAX having a 100 point range and a nice bounce in the EUR/USD. There is no story in the US or Europe presently so more of the same again today. The main news is from the UK and the Continue Reading →