IIFT Daily Note with Peter Brown & David McWilliams

Recent IIFT News About ‘Trading Views’


David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 2:14 pm  |  Topic:
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Daily Note – Go out and vote!

gm360Summary:

ECB to stay the course!

United Kingdom: Retail Sales accelerate in April

United States: Weekly claims close to historic lows

Eurozone: Flash PMI data slows in May

Good morning,

It is time to vote in Ireland’s Continue Reading →

CPI in the US, the big event toady.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:38 am  |  Topic:
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Commentary:

We have certainly settled down nicely. Little action yesterday and indices contained in tight ranges. Today we have data releases up until 10am, pmi’s industrial production and business climate. All designed to keep market ticking over. I am not expecting much as we know the state of the Eurozone Continue Reading →

David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 10:07 am  |  Topic:
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Daily Note – US Rebound?

gm360Summary:

US reaccelerating?

United Kingdom: MPC diverging views?

 

 

Good morning,

I am just going to focus on the US this morning.

I don’t put too much weight on the weakness in United States Q1 GDP print. It Continue Reading →

Market settles down.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:38 am  |  Topic:
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Commentary:

Market returned to normal yesterday. DAX top to bottom 100 points! More like it. Despite some intra-day data the big event last night was the Fed minutes. Bit of a non-event and the only take away was no rate hike in June. We were not expecting one anyway.

So Continue Reading →

David’s Daily Note – Deflation? Reflation?

Posted by:  |  Time: 11:14 am  |  Topic:
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Daily Note – Deflation? Reflation?

gm360Summary:

QE- Deflation or reflation?

United Kingdom: Deflation for April

United States: Housing Starts rebound strongly

Eurozone: CPI in line with expectations

 

 

Good morning,

The dollar, the U.S. bond market and the European stock market have all recently become infected Continue Reading →

Macro view comes to the fore.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:40 am  |  Topic:
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Commentary:

A very interesting day yesterday and a return to the macro view. Big rally all-round for indices and some dollar strength. We rallied on the announcement that the ECB would front end the summer QE. That means 120 billion in June. Was this just housekeeping or a signal to Continue Reading →

Equity markets looking really good.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:39 am  |  Topic:  |  Comments: 3
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Commentary:

Greece dominates as we start this morning. Stories of a possible deal being done in the next few days. Interestingly all the stories are from the Greek side. As I have said before we cannot trade Greece we just have to wait and see.

Yesterday was a good day Continue Reading →

David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 11:47 am  |  Topic:
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Daily Note – The British Balkan Conundrum

GM360PESummary:

The Balkans British style

United States: Consumer confidence slows in May

United Kingdom: Growth continues to improve

The Week Ahead: Business Surveys to the fore

Good morning,

Hope you had a good weekend.

Why not start Continue Reading →

Equities driven by the dollar.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:47 am  |  Topic:
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Commentary:

Friday’s bad US data saw a 50 point fall in the Dow, A 100 point rise in the Euro and a 200 point fall in the DAX. This sums up the fact that the Dax has a volatility in it recently which is not justified by the market outlook. Continue Reading →

David’s Daily Note – The Bond Conundrum

Posted by:  |  Time: 1:31 pm  |  Topic:
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Daily Note – The Bond Conundrum

the bond conundrumSummary:

Why are bond yields going higher

The three main players.

United States: Initial claims at historic low levels

China: Is the housing market turning?

 

 

Good morning,

All good with you on this Friday? Last night I was talking Continue Reading →

More flip-flopping

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:40 am  |  Topic:
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Commentary:

Yesterday can be summarised as follows:-

  • Bad US retails sales clobbered the dollar
  • The higher Euro clobbered the DAX
  • The sell-off in bonds clobber the Dow
  • The dollar weakening rallied gold

This market is flip flopping without any clear direction. I got stopped out on a DAX short at Continue Reading →

David’s Daily Note – Inflation still an issue

Posted by:  |  Time: 3:19 pm  |  Topic:
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Daily Note – Inflation still an issue

UK FlagSummary:Still looking for higher UK rates

United Kingdom: Industrial Production accelerates in March

United States: Small business confidence increases in April

Good afternoon,

So on Monday afternoon, as expected, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to maintain the Bank Continue Reading →

David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 3:32 pm  |  Topic:
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Daily Note – Greece, Greece and more Greece

greek flagSummary:

Greek economy nearing the end game

 

 

 

Good afternoon,

Last week the March deposit data for Greece was released by the Bank of Greece. Deposits fell again, by around EUR3.5bn. Household deposits fell Continue Reading →

Market quiet for a change.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:28 am  |  Topic:
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Commentary:

Pretty close to a normal market yesterday with volatility contained to a couple of 100 points. Today I will mark the indices back to choppy conditions. Yesterday was all about Greece because there was nothing else going on. Today they will make their payment to the IMF and we Continue Reading →

David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 11:47 am  |  Topic:
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Daily Note – Don’t cry for me Argentina

 Arg GoalSummary:

Markets rebound late in the week

United States:Employment growth rebounds in April

China: PBOC cuts rates as expected

The Week Ahead: US data still to the fore

 

Good morning, feeling a bit bleary Continue Reading →

Greece back on the agenda.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:34 am  |  Topic:
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Commentary:

A big rally towards the end of last week and certainly on the back of the NFP on Friday. The market took the bad news is good news tack after March figures were revised down and the April figure was just as expected. Bond markets settled also and we Continue Reading →

David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 4:17 pm  |  Topic:
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Daily Note -Conservative win

dcamSummary:

The Tories trounce Labour

Breakup of Britian?

Eurozone: Still no export lead recovery

 

Good afternoon,

The Tories have won handsomely and it means that the UK is less United than at any stage since the Act of Union Continue Reading →

Tory victory and NFP.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:44 am  |  Topic:  |  Comments: 2
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Commentary:

Today is all about the UK election and the NFP. How wrong can polls be? Amazing really, I thought they had that stuff down to a tee at this stage. Not one poll suggested the Tories would get near 325 in fact the last price I saw on IG Continue Reading →

David’s Daily Note – Messi’s Magic

Posted by:  |  Time: 3:12 pm  |  Topic:
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Daily Note – Messi’s Magic

messiSummary

Something doesn’t add up!

United States: ADP a little on the light side

UK: Business confidence remains strong

Eurozone: Business confidence continues to improve

 

Good morning from my final day in Uruguay, heading to brilliant Argentina now. But did you Continue Reading →

Bonds are correcting, that’s all.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:38 am  |  Topic:  |  Comments: 1
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Commentary:

Stocks, bonds and dollar lower. There is no question there is a correction in the bond markets. Basically we got too low, Irish 10 year at .7% was a good example, but bonds are not going to rise continuously, ECB is still printing about 60 bln per month and Continue Reading →