IIFT Daily Note with Peter Brown & David McWilliams

Recent IIFT News About ‘Trading Views’


David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 11:15 am  |  Topic:
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North Korea again!

Kim-Jong-Un-inspecting-a-submarine-of-the-Korean-Peoples-ArmySummary

Muddled ECB moves closer to QE in January
China: Government cuts “red tape” further
Week ahead: Shortened week but still some key data

Good morning,

It wouldn’t be Christmas without a threat from North Korea. This time it Continue Reading →

David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 11:44 am  |  Topic:
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Launch date looms

Rocket_LaunchSummary

United States: What’s the fixation on inflation
United Kingdom: Retails sales increase in November
Eurozone: German business confidence improves

Good morning,

After Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, the latest Reuters poll shows that 24 out of 43 Continue Reading →

Happy Christmas & New Year

Posted by:  |  Time: 6:26 am  |  Topic:
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Commentary:

This is the final blog until 5th January so I will outline the macro position ahead of the Year End. Basically Indices and the dollar are good. Us economy is ok and performing, interest rates increases are coming 2nd half 2015. QE in Europe and Japan will keep the Euro and Continue Reading →

David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 10:04 am  |  Topic:
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The Return of Mr Phillips

phillips-curve-19crvc5Summary

The Return of Mr Philips.
Yellen indicates rates will rise in 2015
United States: Headline CPI drops more than expected
United Kingdom: Could UK rates actually fall?

Good morning,

Despite chaos all over the place, the Fed Continue Reading →

Janet gets it right.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:37 am  |  Topic:
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 Commentary:

Janet got it right last night. She bounced the market without sending the dollar through the roof. That was the brief and she nailed it. Everything looks better this morning even the Ruble is stronger. Will this end the panic ahead of Year end and we can have our Continue Reading →

David’s Daily Note – The Wisdom of Solomon

Posted by:  |  Time: 11:11 am  |  Topic:
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The Wisdom of Solomon

king-solomonSummary

Russia ruined
US doesn’t want to see the end of Putin
These are the times gold bugs live for
United States: Housing data in line
United States: All eyes on the Fed

Good morning, Continue Reading →

Markets in mad mood.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:44 am  |  Topic:
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 Commentary:

The market stayed volatile yesterday and despite an effort to bounce caved in later on. The Russian Ruble fall was frankly stunning a currency which lost half its value in a day. If you had a .10c position long the Ruble you could have lost 18,000 yesterday!

The oil Continue Reading →

David’s Daily Note – A Minsky Moment?

Posted by:  |  Time: 11:32 am  |  Topic:
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A Minsky Moment?

panicSummaryEM Crisis: Oil and emerging markets
Russia: Full blown currency crisis
United States: Better IP data
Eurozone: Bundesbank irrelevant now
China: Business sentiment slows

Good morning,

Unfortunately, the last time I saw something like this oil Continue Reading →

Crazy continues.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:43 am  |  Topic:
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Commentary:

The crazy volatility continues. Oil is the main driver and the falling price is hurting, especially in emerging markets and especially Russia. There is also concern with the vast quantity of bonds issues by the fracking industry in the US. We are having some run into Year end and Continue Reading →

David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 1:22 pm  |  Topic:
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Oil Slump

oil-well-art-d0e8499fbec07478Summary

Stocks and Oil continues to slide
United States: Consumer confidence hits a 10 year high
Eurozone: Weak start to Q4 activity data
The Week ahead: All about the Fed

Good morning,

Although much has been made of the windfall from the Continue Reading →

Oil, Profit taking and Christmas.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:40 am  |  Topic:
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Commentary:

All three are impacting on this market. Friday was very bearish and the market is close to full panic. We have two weeks to go and if the market cannot settle down any price action is possible. There is no question that this very low oil price is uncovering Continue Reading →

David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 3:24 pm  |  Topic:
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No easy decisions

Mario-Draghi_2051320cSummary

Thinking like an Italian Eurozone: Industrial production slows in Italy Crude Oil: Breaking thresholds United States: Retail Sales accelerateChina: Activity data in line with expectations

Good morning,

Heading into yesterday, the positioning ahead of the TLTRO announcement Continue Reading →

Volatility Continues.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:42 am  |  Topic:
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Commentary:

Oil moves are causing all the volatility in the market. The fact that there is such an exposure to the sector and the worries that some companies may go bust, or indeed half the industry is making everyone jumpy. Add to that thin yesr end markets and you can Continue Reading →

David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 10:45 am  |  Topic:
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Oil Bust!

oil-well-pump-cristina-lichtiSummary

Oil makes a new low as markets continue lower
Eurozone: French Industrial Production slows in October
Turkey: Growth slowed more than expected in Q3

Good morning,

Everyone is a genius in a flat market, but when a bubble pops, Continue Reading →

More crazy to come

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:50 am  |  Topic:
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 Commentary:

Up until the bell on Wall St I thought I had my hurricane call wrong. What happened next was more of the same high volatility on little news. Yes the oil price is slipping and that is giving worries to mining stocks and then there was rumours of difficulties Continue Reading →

David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 1:16 pm  |  Topic:
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Risk Off!

PROP141209-026-Liverpool_Basel-600x4121Summary

Equities move to risk off
Eurozone: Fresh elections in Greece
United States: Small business confident
Australia: Supervision on alert
United Kingdom: Industrial production slows

Good morning,

Somethings just go from bad to worse. The poor Scousers, out of the Continue Reading →

Christmas volatility takes over

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:02 am  |  Topic:
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 Commentary:

Yesterday confirmed we are in Christmas markets. Yes we had a slight meltdown in China and yes we had some trouble in Greece but the action the ensued was way beyond the story. This is typical of thin Christmas markets. The volatility in stocks and FX was extreme. This Continue Reading →

David’s Daily Note – Beware Consensus!

Posted by:  |  Time: 1:54 pm  |  Topic:
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Beware Consensus!

men-in-suits-hiSummaryThe World: The danger of the consensus trade
China: Bond Dilemmas
South Africa: Current Account worsens in Q3
Taiwan: Better export data
Eurozone: German production slows

Good morning,

The dangerous level of consensus for 2015 is the Continue Reading →

Oil stocks and China growth dominate

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:50 am  |  Topic:  |  Comments: 3
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 Commentary:

Well December trading started with a tricky kittle market yesterday. When we come into the last few weeks we expect exaggerated moves and that is exactly what we got yesterday. A reverse of the trend in equities and the dollar.

The falling oil price and subsequent selling of oil Continue Reading →

David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 11:41 am  |  Topic:
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Captain America

Captain AmericaSummary

What a difference a week makes!
Looking for a hawkish Fed next week
United States: Blow out employment growth
Eurozone: German Factory Orders surprise to the upside.
The Glenn Hansard Theory of Economics

Good morning,

It’s been a poor Continue Reading →