IIFT Daily Note with Peter Brown & David McWilliams

Recent IIFT News About ‘Trading Views’


David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 11:17 am  |  Topic:
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Daily Note – Keeping it Simple!

shutterstock_156525197Summary

  • The perils of being the smartest guy in the room!
  • A lesson in simplicity
  • United States: GDP accelerated faster than expected

Good morning,

Smart guys are the most dangerous. They are the most prone to overconfidence and Continue Reading →

Still undecided

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:33 am  |  Topic:
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Good Morning

Well we bounced yesterday as expected. The Dow did more than the DAX and that was down to good GDP figures in the US. Doubtless if we were not worried about China the rate rise would be imminent and the dollar would be roaring. We are no nearer Continue Reading →

David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 12:02 pm  |  Topic:
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Daily Note – Waving Stability Goodbye!

Waving Goodbye PlaneSummary

  • Forces for stability have gone out the window!
  • Where do true valuations lie?
  • Eurozone: France finally tackling its labour problems?
  • United States: Durable Goods accelerate in July

Good morning,

We are yo-yoing around and few will really Continue Reading →

A short term rally in underway.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:48 am  |  Topic:
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Good Morning

Sentiment is a little better this morning. China central bank action and some comments from the FED about interest rates and the bulls are now on the ball. Hard to say whether we have seen the worst for a while but it certainly looks positive first thing.

Difficulty Continue Reading →

David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 10:44 am  |  Topic:
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Daily Note – Has Globalisation peaked?

globalisationSummary

  • China easing, more volatility ahead
  • Eurozone: Where next for the Euro?
  • United States: Data supports positive growth outlook
  • Eurozone: Could the German economy be ‘topping out’?

Good morning,

Chinese equities reversed a weak open during the Asian Continue Reading →

David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 10:41 am  |  Topic:
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Daily Note – Death, Taxes & Margin Calls

blackmondaySummary

  • The unravelling of the QE era
  • Global equities getting hammered
  • All eyes turn to Jackson Hole for clues

Good morning,

There are a few certainties in life, death, taxes and margin calls. Carry trades, financed Continue Reading →

Are the Central banks on holidays?

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:36 am  |  Topic:
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Good Morning

It is not often we see a day like yesterday. I was on the phone for the first candle after the Wall St open. 750 points! 2011 was the last time we had those sorts of moves. It is now well discussed as to the reasons, Chinese growth Continue Reading →

David’s Daily Note – Hold onto your seats!

Posted by:  |  Time: 10:58 am  |  Topic:
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Daily Note – Hold onto your seats!

article-0-0EE24E2200000578-23_468x433Summary

  • Equity sell-off continues
  • Eurozone: So why is the Euro so strong?
  • Eurozone: German Manufacturing sentiment improves
  • The Week Ahead: All eyes on the Federal Reserve

Good morning, or rather morning and hold onto your seats!

The selloffs in equity Continue Reading →

We need the Central banks, again!

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:34 am  |  Topic:
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Good Morning

As we have said many times before these hurricane markets are not for us. The price action on Friday and overnight has been frightening frankly. In most cases we have now corrected by 10% and on the DAX by over 20%. Dollar has been clobbered as a rate Continue Reading →

David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 11:18 am  |  Topic:
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Daily Note – China Crisis?

China Stock Market SlideSummary

  • China: Manufacturing Sentiment slows again
  • Greece: Snap election highlights risks to bailout
  • United States: Data continues to strengthen

Good Morning,

Poor market performance on Thursday spilled over to Friday’s Asia session, with Asian currencies weakening, equity markets selling Continue Reading →

Correction or Crash

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:42 am  |  Topic:
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Good Morning

I am going for the correction argument. This market looks like a total collapse and is very dangerous to trade but we have the central banks and I expect some serious dovish comments and actions across the board to calm this market over the next month or two. Continue Reading →

David’s Daily Note – Waiting for the stars to align

Posted by:  |  Time: 1:21 pm  |  Topic:
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Daily Note – Waiting for the stars to align

102451668-RTR4QZ8B.530x298Summary

  • FOMC lift off looms
  • Consumer prices are going nowhere!
  • United States: Muted Pricing Pressures

Good morning,

As volatility in financial markets continues unabated, particularly in Asia, last night the minutes of the July meeting of the United Continue Reading →

Macro in reverse.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:32 am  |  Topic:
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Good Morning

Yesterday in the FOMC minutes the FED backed away from their imminent rate rise. No surprise there. There was a stunning attempt to rally late afternoon but it was thrashed really quickly. This market is scared, scared of China and the commodity sell off. Sure it is August Continue Reading →

David’s Daily Note – The Wind is Changing

Posted by:  |  Time: 11:38 am  |  Topic:
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Daily Note – The Wind is Changing

86131411593798746_bWyTGLtB_c_zpscf943999Summary

  • Eyes on the road ahead
  • The growing case for active asset management
  • United States: The tale of two economies

Good morning,

As the summer comes to an end and markets look towards the busy and historically volatile Autumn period, Continue Reading →

Europe down US up.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:27 am  |  Topic:
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Good Morning

After a good fade trade we had another down day for the DAX. US was up! But the DAX even with all the QE, is trading like a dead cat. I cannot bring myself to sell it because any outcome from China is likely to lead to more Continue Reading →

Thin August markets and nervous.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:36 am  |  Topic:
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Good Morning

It is all about the Far East, Japan had GDP this morning and although it was better than expected they showed more contraction. The greatest proponent of QE and they cannot get their economy off the ground. Worries about China and how slow the economy actually is, continue. Continue Reading →

David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 1:24 pm  |  Topic:
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Daily Note – What’s happening in China?

Jackie-ChanSummary

  • Chinese FX manoeuvring, expect volatility!
  • Cheaper Yuan increases competition for Western firms
  • United States: Better Retail Sales

Good morning on the 70th anniversary of the Japanese surrender in WW2 which totally reshaped the politics of Continue Reading →

Bouncing like a dead cat.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:41 am  |  Topic:
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Good Morning

Well the market calmed a bit yesterday but we certainly did not see a bounce. The Yuan has settled but the market is still suspect as to the next moves. We have had GDP from France and Germany this morning and those figures are not good. We are Continue Reading →

David’s Daily Note – All eyes on the Middle Kingdom

Posted by:  |  Time: 11:22 am  |  Topic:
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Daily Note – All eyes on the Middle Kingdom

750x-1Summary

  • Emerging Markets Outlook
  • Keep your friends close & trading partners closer!
  • China’s neighbours feel the pinch

Good morning,

Could EM markets rebound once fears about China ease? I was asked this question by an investor yesterday and Continue Reading →

A chance of a rally?

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:44 am  |  Topic:
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Good Morning

After another torrid day we seem to have settled late afternoon in the US. I am expecting a bounce this morning as the panic caused by China has settled down a bit. Long term there is an issue here but these things take a long time to work Continue Reading →