IIFT Daily Note with Peter Brown

Recent IIFT News About ‘Trading Views’


The OPEC meeting will provide all the headlines.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:38 am  |  Topic:
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A IIFT 2

Good Morning

Last week we had the equity rally based on a dovish BOJ and FED. That mood seems to have disappeared this morning. We start OPEC this morning and all eyes will be on the participants to see if they can get an agreement to limit supply, raise prices. Continue Reading →

No bad news stocks will rise.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:38 am  |  Topic:
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A IIFT 2

Good Morning

The market put in a strong performance yesterday. No rate rise set the conditions for indices to rise and the market was bullish all day. We topped out a bit late on but start again today biased to the upside.

Next week we have the start of the Continue Reading →

Nothing from the FED. Rates will never rise!!

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:29 am  |  Topic:
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A IIFT 2

Good Morning

Not a great day for us yesterday. The straddles did not work and I did not get my surprise rate rise. Despite three dissenters on the FED Janet the dove won through. The next meeting is in November where they will not move in the midst of an Continue Reading →

BOJ does more, now we await Janet.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:29 am  |  Topic:
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A IIFT 2

Good Morning

After the recent doldrums the market should come to life this morning. Already we have had action from The BOJ. Not a rate cut but further stimulus. That should be good for Index markets this morning. Dollar a little stronger against the JPY but of course the main Continue Reading →

Quiet before the storm

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:23 am  |  Topic:
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A IIFT 2

Good Morning

The quietest day ever? It certainly seemed like it. The market is waiting for the Bank of Japan on Wednesday morning and the Fed in the evening. Some people believe we may get a double whammy. QE from Japan and a rate rise from the US. That would Continue Reading →

Flat markets again with Apple providing the bounce.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:34 am  |  Topic:
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A IIFT 2

Good Morning

Apple stock is driving the market recovery all by itself it seems. We had poor Retail Sales data for the US yesterday and of course bad news is good news because that means less chance of a rate rise. So the market rallied on both of those stories, Continue Reading →

Data releases all day

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:26 am  |  Topic:
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A IIFT 2

Good Morning

As expected yesterday we had lower indices with FX and metals not moving much. Today we have a raft of data all round, the big data being the UK interest rate decision and all the 1.30 pm economic releases for the US.

In the UK I am not Continue Reading →

Volatile but negative.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:30 am  |  Topic:
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A IIFT 2

Good Morning

We have suddenly started to put in big moves on these indices. Although the market is not certain of a direction the volatility is back. We have some big events ahead not least the US rate decision next week. They could still pull the trigger and if they Continue Reading →

Dead cat bounce?

Posted by:  |  Time: 6:53 am  |  Topic:
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Good Morning

‘U.S. stocks were heading for their strongest session since July on Monday after Federal Reserve Board Governor Lael Brainard stuck to her dovish stance on interest rates and urged caution about removing monetary stimulus too quickly.’

One day we are crashing and yesterday we put in a 400 Continue Reading →

Market explodes into life.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:41 am  |  Topic:
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A IIFT 2

Good Morning

The market has finally found some life in a big way! Friday the market started to fall and did not stop. That was on the back of Draghi and a decision not to do more QE. That came on the back of Japan not doing more QE and Continue Reading →

Nothing from Mario the stalemate continues.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:27 am  |  Topic:
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A IIFT 2

Good Morning

Well nothing from Mario in the end. No extension to the QE programme, no rate change and no change to the eligible bonds. Is this the start of the end to QE, who knows! It certainly has maintained the summer theme that the market has nowhere to go Continue Reading →

Welcome back Mario.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:32 am  |  Topic:  |  Comments: 2
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A IIFT 2

Good Morning

A nice day all round yesterday, good DAX fade trade and the rest of the markets more or less ranged. Very little movement on FX, not even enough movement to reach a pivot! Let’s hope the FX markets spark into life soon, as I said, this is the Continue Reading →

Weak data everywhere

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:32 am  |  Topic:
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A IIFT 2

Good Morning

Well yesterday the ISM manufacturing data completed a slew of bad news for the US economy. Poof goes the chances of a rate rise and the rally in the dollar. This morning we have had poor industrial production data out of Germany keeping up the theme. The World Continue Reading →

All quiet on all fronts

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:28 am  |  Topic:
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A IIFT 2

Good Morning

Not a lot to report really. Oil had a big jump yesterday on the back of proposed Russian Saudi co-operation to limit production. That faded a bit late on. With the US closed there was no action and we carry a quiet market into today. Nothing of note Continue Reading →

Back to more of the same.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:31 am  |  Topic:  |  Comments: 1
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A IIFT 2

Good Morning

Well the NFP was a bit of a mess on Friday. Although we had a low read the market fell and then rose with a bit of messing around the release. We don’t normally straddle the NFP and that is why. We thought we may get a clean Continue Reading →

Big, Big NFP. This one is important.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:35 am  |  Topic:  |  Comments: 2
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A IIFT 2

Good Morning

Apologies for the loss of screen on our webcast yesterday, apparently it was outside of our control or so Niall tells me! A very interesting set of manufacturing PMI’s yesterday. The start performer was the UK which bounced GBP. But more interestingly was the poor data from the Continue Reading →

A holding day ahead of tomorrows NFP.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:30 am  |  Topic:
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A IIFT 2

Good Morning

The market was more or less as expected yesterday. A messy fade trade again but we are getting there but a good straddle on oil despite a bit of slippage. The dollar is supported by the rate hike expectations and that is causing the divergence between European indices Continue Reading →

Summer is just about over.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:30 am  |  Topic:
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A IIFT 2

Good Morning

The big story for Ireland of course is Apple but that is not a market mover and is a saga set to run and run. In the markets we had a very predictable day yesterday. The DAX fade was a mess and that has been a trend for Continue Reading →

Market is just solid

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:42 am  |  Topic:
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A IIFT 2

Good Morning

We have settled down, got used to the fact that rates may rise a little bit and stocks are on the rise again. A rate rise is good for banking stocks as they might be able to make a margin on deposits. This is some of the motivation Continue Reading →

Slightly hawkish Janet

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:26 am  |  Topic:
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A IIFT 2

Good Morning

Friday was a bit strange, as Janet spoke we got little reaction but later the market took her comments as a bit hawkish. Dollar is higher and stocks are a bit lower. Fed member Fischer reiterated his comments that he expects two rate hikes this year! All Continue Reading →