IIFT Daily Note with Peter Brown & David McWilliams

Recent IIFT News About ‘Trading Views’


David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 11:22 am  |  Topic:
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Daily Note- Bubble Trouble

BubblesSummary

China: Manufacturing activity accelerates in July
United States: Investors fear a bubble
United Kingdom: BOE minutes suggest no imminent change in tone

 

Good morning,

Asset price bubbles come in varying shapes and sizes. The Tulip Mania Continue Reading →

Another shot at sanctions today.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:37 am  |  Topic:
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 Commentary:

We have a lot going on today. China PMI was better, European PMI’s are out starting at 8am and the European Foreign Ministers meet again on the sanction issue. Later US un-employment figures and new home sales. Add to that the IMF lowering growth forecasts to 1.7% for the Continue Reading →

David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 11:44 am  |  Topic:
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Daily Note- Toothless

TeethSummary
World Politics: Guns come first
Markets: Frothy now?
United States: Not much inflation anywhere really
United Kingdom: Little improvement in the public finances
China: Large-cap stocks continue to outperform

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Good morning,

One wouldn’t expect financial contracts to Continue Reading →

Complacency abounds.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:39 am  |  Topic:
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 Commentary:

The market chose to ignore the Ukraine situation yesterday and instead concentrate on earnings. We rallied hard all-day and the S&P future eventually reached 1980 a new high. Complacency rules and that was further enhanced when the EU foreign ministers failed to agree new sanctions on Russia. This decision Continue Reading →

David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 1:43 pm  |  Topic:
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Daily Note- Divergence

Train tracksSummary

The Middle East: Europe toothless
Eurozone: European markets begin to underperform
United Kingdom: Indicators flashing red for retail sales

 

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Good morning,

One geographical fact that was crucial to twentieth century history: America, flanked on both coasts Continue Reading →

David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 12:15 pm  |  Topic:
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Daily Note – The Return of Politics

MissilesSummary

Geo-political risk: It hasn’t gone away
United States: Consumer confidence slows modestly
Explosion in M&A deals tells its own story
The week ahead: Important week for the Eurozone

 

 

Good morning,

Markets are Continue Reading →

How serious will the sanctions get?

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:36 am  |  Topic:  |  Comments: 3
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 Commentary:

Despite it being an Asian holiday and little in the way of data, there is a lot to be decided today. The sanctions issue regarding Russia is the big story and it has serious knock on effect for Europe and global growth. France, Germany and Italy will be hit Continue Reading →

David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 1:24 pm  |  Topic:
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Daily Note – End Game?

AirtrafficSummary

Russia: Don’t expect Putin to roll over
United States: Initial Claims falls to recovery low
South Africa: SARB hikes by 25bp
Eurozone: ECB to give banks preliminary stress test findings in September/October

 

Good morning,

When Continue Reading →

David’s Daily Note – Eastern Headache

Posted by:  |  Time: 12:14 pm  |  Topic:
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on 

PutinSummary

Russia: Further sanctions weigh on European stocks
United States: Better housing sentiment
United Kingdom: Unemployment falls again but no pick up in wages

 

Good morning,

One theory of what determines American foreign policy posits that America will intervene to Continue Reading →

Markets back off the high.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:40 am  |  Topic:
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 Commentary:

A tricky day on Equity markets yesterday. China growth figures and a possible resolution to the BNS story gave a boost to the DAX early on. Earnings figures were good and Janet Yellen did not put her foot in it. All led to a new high for Wall St. Continue Reading →

David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 12:12 pm  |  Topic:
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Daily Note – Stock Picking


CubesSummary

Eurozone: Problems mount in Portugal
United States: Federal Reserve moves into the stock picking game
United States: Retail Sales improve further
China: Better GDP data
Russia: Industrial production slows in June

 

Good morning,

In Monday’s Continue Reading →

A lot going on.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:43 am  |  Topic:
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 Commentary:

A very interesting day on the markets yesterday. Again poor figures from Europe and the BNS banking debacle continues. Then Janet Yellen put the jitters on the markets with comments that certain sectors were overvalued. Add to that great earnings figures from Goldman Sachs and Jp Morgan and frankly Continue Reading →

David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 12:32 pm  |  Topic:
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Daily Note – Shot across the bow

War ShipSummary

Germans getting nervous?
Ukraine accuses Russia of aggression. What’s new?
Eurozone: The IMF – the global chicken?
Eurozone: Weidmann says ECB interest rates too low for Germany
United States: Market positioned for a fall Continue Reading →

Risk On to start the week.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:48 am  |  Topic:
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 Commentary:

Risk on abounded yesterday as the market moved on from BNS in Portugal and concentrated on earnings. Citibank figures were good and that gave Equity markets the impetus to push higher. The big mover on the day was Gold and despite the turmoil in Ukraine and the Mid-East the Continue Reading →

David’s Daily Note – Joycean Economics

Posted by:  |  Time: 12:38 pm  |  Topic:
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James Joyce2

Summary

US: Earnings season – a litmus test

US: Initial Claims continue to improve while manufacturing and housing sentiment remains firm

US: Most economists expecting Fed to taper in $10 billion increments – WSJ survey

US: Bernanke “QE Continue Reading →

Market recovered nicely.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:47 am  |  Topic:
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 Commentary:

Yet again the Equity markets bounce from adversity. The Portuguese BNS story has been passed by the market and Friday afternoon saw a decent rally all-round. All the latest news points to a divergence between Europe and the US and most trades should be based on that. We are Continue Reading →

David’s Daily Note – Fear downgraded to worry

Posted by:  |  Time: 12:47 pm  |  Topic:
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 on 

ronaldoSummary

Eurozone: Banking worries return

Eurozone: France slips towards recession

United States: Weekly claims improve further

United Kingdom: Housing activity begins to rebalance

 

Good morning,

The Communist Manifesto opens with “A spectre is haunting Europe — the spectre of Continue Reading →

Thank God for stops!

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:46 am  |  Topic:
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 Commentary:

Yesterday turned into a hurricane market. Trouble in banks will do that. Portugal’s biggest bank is bust and needs a bailout. A stark warning to us all that the Eurozone crisis is not fixed.

Bank worries drive the markets mad and you can see from the reaction in Indices, Continue Reading →

David’s Daily Note – The Road Ahead

Posted by:  |  Time: 11:57 am  |  Topic:
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 on 


Scales
 Summary

United States: FOMC minutes broadly neutral

United States: All economic data is not created equal

China: Exports a little weaker in June

Eurozone: Portugal leads drop in Euro-Area bonds on Espirito Santo concern

 

 

Good morning,

In George Orwell’s Animal Continue Reading →

CPI today, keeps it choppy.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:39 am  |  Topic:
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 Commentary:

Good deep analysis from David’s note yesterday. Must read for everybody.

Tricky little market now we are in earnings season. We were bearish throughout Europe as expected and got a little bounce later. Fed minutes confirmed that QE will end in October, no surprise there. We also got confirmation Continue Reading →