IIFT Daily Note with Peter Brown & David McWilliams

Recent IIFT News About ‘Trading Views’


David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 10:31 am  |  Topic:
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Daily Note – King Dollar

king dollarSummary:

The many consequences of USD strength

United States: Poor data to start the week

Eurozone: Euro weakness brings inflation

China: Further easing measures announced

 

Good morning from a bustling Dublin Airport.

The number of American tourists tells Continue Reading →

Quarter End.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:44 am  |  Topic:
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Commentary:

As we approach the quarter end it is interesting to see that the macro view has come to pass strongly. Despite the fact we had some volatile periods, basically, Euro stocks are up strongly, US stocks are sideways to up and the dollar is higher across the board. Regardless Continue Reading →

David’s Daily Note -The Robbie Keane law of markets

Posted by:  |  Time: 12:29 pm  |  Topic:
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Daily Note -The Robbie Keane law of markets

The Robbie Keane law of markets

Summary:

Markets: US equities looking very expensive

Greece going bust, again?

United States: Peak GDP?

The Week Ahead: US employment report key to the short term outlook on rates

 

 

Good morning,

Not Continue Reading →

Greece still in the background.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:45 am  |  Topic:
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Commentary:

A strong finish to Friday especially on the indices. We are ranging up and down frankly without any direction last week. This trend is likely to continue for a while. The big stories are Yemen and Greece. Both are in the background but having little effect. I do not Continue Reading →

David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 11:15 am  |  Topic:
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Daily Note- Time to reassess?

images-2Summary:

Deflation everywhere, more Japanese QE on the way

S&P 500 drops without a move higher in rates

United States: Employment growing still

United Kingdom: Conservatives smiling

Eurozone: Bank lending picks up

 

Good morning,

It’s Friday and people Continue Reading →

US GDP the main event today.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:41 am  |  Topic:  |  Comments: 4
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Commentary:

We have a lot of volatility and negativity in these markets. A slower US economy, Greece and Yemen dominate. In reality I think we are just in a profit taking phase. If we look back at the stunning stock market rally from 2009 it is dotted with these 5/7% Continue Reading →

David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 10:36 am  |  Topic:
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Daily Note – Roy Keane’s forward guidance

imagesSummary:

Tell them what you are going to do!

The Roy Keane model of forward guidance

Stocks sell off on US rate and Yeman

United States: Durable Goods orders slow

Eurozone: German Confidence accelerates

Good morning,

I Continue Reading →

Turmoil from out of nowhere.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:48 am  |  Topic:  |  Comments: 3
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Commentary:

I was seriously considering moving my macro call to ranging, especially for the US indices and FX. Yesterday has blown that theory out of the water. The durable goods data was the key but frankly the US market went into meltdown. Worries over a slowdown and are stocks over-valued. Continue Reading →

David’s Daily Note – Deflationary Growth?

Posted by:  |  Time: 11:25 am  |  Topic:
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Daily Note – Deflationary Growth?

Eu factoriesSummary:

Recovery in Europe? Just asking!

Greeks are running out of cash and fast…again

Eurozone: Business Confidence strengthens in March

United States: Core inflation going nowhere

Good morning,

For those of us who fly a lot, there’s Continue Reading →

Has the dollar correction stalled?

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:40 am  |  Topic:
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Commentary:

Has the dollar correction finished? Certainly the data yesterday suggested there may be a chance of an interest rate rise at some time. We are going to play this game all year I fear. However we know the macro view of the dollar is up and it is possible Continue Reading →

David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 11:01 am  |  Topic:
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Daily Note – Insiders and Outsiders

FNSummary:

French local elections

United States: Yanks still buying houses

China: Bad News is Good News!

 

Good morning,

One of the biggest issues in Europe is that so-called populist parties will benefit enormously as a consequence of Continue Reading →

Greece, still on the agenda.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:47 am  |  Topic:  |  Comments: 1
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Well I got yesterday’s call on the DAX wrong, so apologies for that. The Greek situation had a much greater affect than I thought it would resulting in a DAX sell off close to 160 points and a failed fade trade. Today we have a load of PMI’s due out Continue Reading →

David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 11:26 am  |  Topic:
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Daily Note – People Matter

SINGAPORESummary

Lee Kuan Yew: An Asian giant passes

Greece unresolved: Capital controls?

United States: Debunking the Fed “Dots”

The Week Ahead: US CPI data key for the week

Good morning,

If you could invest in people who would you Continue Reading →

Dollar eases, stocks rally.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:44 am  |  Topic:
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Commentary:

Macro view has never been easier. Stocks are up and so is the dollar albeit at a slower pace than we expected. Friday saw a really good rally on stocks and I am now targeting 12,500 for the DAX and 18,500 for the DOW. The dollar is profit taking Continue Reading →

David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 11:31 am  |  Topic:
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Daily Note – Thoughts from an Après Ski bar!

DSMSummary:

United States: USD less of a one way bet now

United States: Weekly claims stay sub 300k

China: The return of the 1970s again

Chinese hydraulic Keynesianism

Australia: Hitting the buffers?

Good morning,

One Continue Reading →

Greece nearly there. No big stories left!

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:42 am  |  Topic:  |  Comments: 1
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Commentary:

Greece is still on the agenda but it looks like a can kicking deal will be done at the eleventh hour yet again. That means there are no big issues for the market to concern itself, very rare. So we are set fair for the macro-view to do some Continue Reading →

David’s Daily Note

Posted by:  |  Time: 11:48 am  |  Topic:
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Daily Note – Here come the Americans

ski 19th march

Summary:

United States: ‘Patient’ is gone now all about the data

United Kingdom: Unemployment rate falls again

 

Good morning from the glorious Italian Alps about as far away from the Fed as possible, however talking to Continue Reading →

Crazy price action follows FOMC

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:48 am  |  Topic:  |  Comments: 7
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Commentary:

Astonishing price action on the FOMC minutes and Janet Yellen. I can summarise the content very easily but I cannot justify the volatility we saw in prices.

Basically they removed the word patience but then stated they would be very slow to increase rates and the pace of increases Continue Reading →

David’s Daily Note – Bibi, Iran, oil and the dollar

Posted by:  |  Time: 10:53 am  |  Topic:
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Daily Note – Bibi, Iran, oil and the dollar

IsraelSummary:

What Netanyahu’s victory means

Yellen to take a step closer to normalisation

United States: Weaker housing data

Turkey: One to watch – always

 

Good morning,

Many years ago I had a wonderful job. Continue Reading →

FOMC dominates.

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:41 am  |  Topic:  |  Comments: 8
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Commentary:

An interesting last couple of days in the markets, the DAX eventually caved in to some profit taking and the DOW held in well despite all the speculation that we are in for a major correction. Big rally on the FSTE as the market finally buys into some of Continue Reading →