IIFT Daily Note with Peter Brown

The US investor is having a great run!

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:44 am  |  Topic:
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Another high in the S&P. What a run. It would seem everything is right with the world. Don’t be fooled. This run will continue but will also end. Whether with a bang or a fizzle we do not know. In the meantime we ride the trend. When the run finishes we will know. It will take some big news to end this rally, otherwise pull backs are just a buying opportunity. It is a mistake to try to predict the top. keep buying on dips and you will have plenty of money in the bag for when the rally comes to a halt. The bad news when it comes may not be American but European. The US economy is steady and we are unlikely to see anything dramatic enough to reverse this trend. It may be the case we trade sideways for a while after we reach the top. 1600 is now in sight and the next target.

USD/JPY making it’s way slowly towards 100. When we get there we may burst through and expect a fast run to 101.5  102 area. This trade requires no thought. JPY weakness will continue for months. Corrections may be large but the market will recover and move higher. 115 is my first milestone following 100

Euro is still benefiting from the JPY flows and is not a short yet. It and the IBEX are moving into great shorting areas. When we get the bad news on Europe (which will come ) there will be a great sell opportunity on both of these. Remember wait for the bad news to happen.

Levels today are S&P support at the pivots 1576 1568 top side is a new high and than 1600

Euro 1.3120  1.3040 will be affected by JPY flows

USD/JPY 99.40  99.10  top 100

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