IIFT Daily Note with Peter Brown

‘United States of Europe’ ? Anybody ?

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It looks like we are entering the end game here. Germany will not do joint liabilities without a Federal States of europe. Germany are the only one with the money to save the Euro and they are clear on the price they want for it.Politically can we acheive an integrated Europe along thsose lines? No chance!

The latest EU summit is on Thursday and Friday. Last chance saloon! We are definately in a high stakes game over the next few days and weeks. Expect the markets to be jittery this week.

On levels 1.2500 is offering support on the Euro  1.2625 on the topside. 1318 on the S&P 1330 resistance. All the risk is on the downside so to repeat our well used phrase  ‘Sell on Rallies’

One Comment

Peter Pipesmoker

June 25, 2012

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I think the final cracks will come for Euro Endgame when the poster child Irish Economic figures start to implode because of a collapse in the domestic GNP Economy . The warning signs are there on the VAT figures as it’s falling well behind what it’s needs to be even at this stage . It needs to be up by €670mn by year end or we have Troika Tax hikes plus Welfare Cuts . Bringing in a property tax will push the country over the edge Completely, combined with the sudden escalation of the SME sector meltdown in next 12 months . The shock of this will take Govt by surprise and the news will feed into International Markets that Irel Austerity plan is destroying all hope of Recovery. The Credibility loss will destroy confidence in the Euro as it currently exists and cause major selling forcing the final Solution onto table . This will not be politically sellable so whole thing might get quite disorderly quite rapidly , Peter Pipesmoker , Ennis .