IIFT Daily Note with Peter Brown

We are waiting

Posted by:  |  Time: 7:11 am  |  Topic:
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Heading into today’s meeting we don’t know how much information they will give us. We need to see the size of the EFSF leveraged fund, how it will work. The haircut on Greek bonds. But most important the terms attached. That is, Germany’s conditions to back stop all of this. No such thing as a free lunch! It is on this point the deal may fall. Will it require Treaty change?

To be honest we hav’nt a clue what the outcome will be. We have to wait and see. The danger is all on the downside given the big rally we have seen recently. Good news will cause a bounce but it will be limited. 1.4250 and 1280 probably. If the conditions of any deal are deemed on workable we will be headed a lot lower..

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